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Old 04-20-2006, 06:51 AM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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KC Star: Sticking with Baird has left KC stuck

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansas...s/14373799.htm


THE STAT GUY
Sticking with Baird has left KC stuck
By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
The Kansas City Star
The Royals have always been a franchise that has been, if nothing else, extraordinarily patient. In no instance is this patience more manifest than in the continuing presence of Allard Baird in the team’s front office.

We’ve all heard the clichéd palaver about patience, it being a virtue and all that. But seldom addressed are questions regarding when patience lapses into passivity and when passivity disintegrates into neglect.

Baird is one of five persons to hold the general manager’s job with the Royals and, after all this time, his tenure is still the shortest of the five. His program has also been the least successful and he’s not really close to his predecessor, Herk Robinson, who didn’t exactly leave behind a legacy of triumph.

But there is no reason to dwell on Baird’s performance record, or at least the bare bones of it in terms of wins and losses. That’s old ground. Instead, it’s important to put that record in historical context and to ask what it says not about Baird, but about the franchise that employs him.

By general manager, we refer to the person with each team who holds the responsibilities we normally associate with the job in the modern sense. He makes trades, signs players, hires managers, etc. According to data taken from Baseball America, since 1950, the average American League general manager has served a term of 6.3 seasons. The average winning percentage is, obviously, right about .500.

Through Monday, Baird has been the Royals GM for 5.1 seasons, and that is without giving him credit for the second half of the 2000 season, during which he took the reins from Robinson.

The Royals’ 2-10 start dropped Baird’s winning percentage since the beginning of 2001 to .397. Since 1950, only six of 108 AL general managers have won fewer than 40 percent of their games. The average tenure of the other five has been 1.7 seasons.

If we raise the bar to a .450 winning percentage, we find that the average tenure is 3.3 seasons. Of the 21 general managers below that threshold, only three lasted longer than Baird.

One was Randy Smith, who ran the Tigers for seven seasons of .412 ball. Another was George Selkirk, who accumulated 7.9 seasons with the early Kansas City Athletics and the Washington Senators of the early 1960’s. His teams won at a .418 clip. The most recent example is Chuck “Don’t Call Me Hedley” LaMar, the only GM employed during the first eight seasons of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. His teams posted a .401 winning percentage.

What we don’t see on the list of sub-.450 GMs is an example of a team sticking with a person through a prolonged stretch of losing and then turning it around and becoming successful.

Dave Dombrowski’s Tigers seem improved this season and may yet justify the team’s faith in him. But Dombrowski had a track record of success in the National League which, if incorporated into this database, would greatly improve his standing. Selkirk’s Senators never approached .500. Joe Klein had one winning season in 1986, but his Indians lost 101 games the next season.

So, the Royals’ patience with Baird is, indeed, historically unique and not particularly encouraging. To bring this discussion back around, what does this patience say about the David Glass-owned Royals? Can it really be called patience? If not, what can we call it?

Sometimes, number-crunching doesn’t provide answers. It only produces more questions. This, it would seem, is one of those times.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Royals GMs

Allard Baird’s term as KC’s general manager is still the shortest, and least successful, in franchise history.


General manager W L Pct. G S
Joe Burke 607 468 .565 1,075 6.6
John Schuerholz 754 702 .518 1,456 9.0
Cedric Tallis 460 503 .478 963 5.9
Herk Robinson 727 824 .469 1,551 9.6
Allard Baird 326 495 .397 821 5.1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subterraneans

Of 108 AL GMs since 1950, only six have posted career winning percentages less than .400.


General manager W L Pct. G S
Allard Baird 326 495 .397 821 5.1
Dave Dombrowski 193 306 .387 499 3.1
Ed Doherty 121 201 .376 322 2.0
Bill DeWitt 110 198 .357 308 1.9
Charlie Gehringer 110 198 .357 308 1.9
Peter Bavasi 54 107 .335 161 1.0

Key: G — total games as general manager;

S — seasons as general manager (measured as games divided by 162)

DATA SOURCE: www.baseballamerica.com

To reach Bradford Doolittle, send e-mail to bdoolittle@kcstar.com
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Old 04-20-2006, 06:59 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28
...To bring this discussion back around, what does this patience say about the David Glass-owned Royals? Can it really be called patience? If not, what can we call it?...

...Stupidity?
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Old 04-20-2006, 08:22 AM   #3
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I want to see an article like this every day till he is fired.
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Old 04-20-2006, 08:24 AM   #4
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Also, if I hear that idiot Baird say "we have a plan" one more ****ing time, my head will explode.

what is that plan Allard? to never continuely draft poorly, hire shitty managers and lose?
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Old 04-20-2006, 08:26 AM   #5
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Baird plays the hand he is dealt. I'm sure he'd love to be able to go out and get he wants instead of being strapped by the Glasses, but ultimately this falls on OWNERSHIP.
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Old 04-20-2006, 08:42 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefFan
Baird plays the hand he is dealt. I'm sure he'd love to be able to go out and get he wants instead of being strapped by the Glasses, but ultimately this falls on OWNERSHIP.
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Old 04-20-2006, 09:39 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefFan
Baird plays the hand he is dealt. I'm sure he'd love to be able to go out and get he wants instead of being strapped by the Glasses, but ultimately this falls on OWNERSHIP.

Florida, Oakland and Minnesota have all managed to win despite being in cash-strapped situations. This season Milwaukee, Cincinnati and even the Devil Rays at least are competitive thus far.

I'm not suggesting it should be expected that the Royals win 90 games a year under their financial situation, but it is reasonable to expect them NOT to lose 100+ games year in and year out.

Baird has no more excuses.
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Old 04-20-2006, 10:22 AM   #8
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It is how you spend the money (ahem SWEENEY).
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Old 04-20-2006, 10:25 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nychief
It is how you spend the money (ahem SWEENEY).
Baird had a DEAL IN PLACE to trade Sweeney last year and GLASS shot it down. Glass is the cheapskate owner, that is running the team in the ground.
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Old 04-20-2006, 10:27 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefFan
Baird had a DEAL IN PLACE to trade Sweeney last year and GLASS shot it down. Glass is the cheapskate owner, that is running the team in the ground.

that was never confirmed. You are talking about the magical deal to the Angels for Kotchman?
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Old 04-20-2006, 10:27 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefFan
Baird had a DEAL IN PLACE to trade Sweeney last year and GLASS shot it down. Glass is the cheapskate owner, that is running the team in the ground.
Well based on how Baird fared in his trades involving other star players (i.e. Beltran, Dye, Damon) maybe it is a good thing Glass shot his trade down.
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Old 04-20-2006, 10:27 AM   #12
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I hate ****ing Glass too - but I think we would be in better shape with a GM that is not a half assed scout.
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Old 04-20-2006, 11:02 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefFan
Baird had a DEAL IN PLACE to trade Sweeney last year and GLASS shot it down. Glass is the cheapskate owner, that is running the team in the ground.

Baird is part of the problem, but most of it lies with the ownership.

When you're owner doesnt want to spend money, you cant make ANY personnel mistakes....

You have to make sure you're big money is spent well and you're free agent signings are right on target:

Sweeney...nope
Juan Gonzalez....nope
Santiago...nope

etc etc etc....

When you're playing with a small pot of chips....you cant bluff...so you have to make sure when you go all in....you have an unbeatable hand....

And it hasnt worked out so well the last 10 years (or more).
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Old 04-20-2006, 04:49 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nychief
Also, if I hear that idiot Baird say "we have a plan" one more ****ing time, my head will explode.

what is that plan Allard? to never continuely draft poorly, hire shitty managers and lose?

Maybe he was a supporter of John F. Kerry???
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