How the Royals can win the World Series

[alnorth]

Hope and Faith: How the Kansas City Royals can Win the World Series



Pretty funny read, individually each one of the things in that article could happen, but when you start to tally up the odds of everything that happened in this fairy-tale story its comical.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Messier

Really? Hmmm, I don't think the Chiefs are in a decline.

You cant be serious. I dont think we have a dying man's chance next year, and the playoffs are highly unlikely. The Chiefs will win enough games to avoid a good draft pick, but thats about it.

[Nzoner]

Vegas is giving 100/1 odds that the Royals can't even win the division.



I put $10 on it what the hell.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Nzoner

Vegas is giving 100/1 odds that the Royals can't even win the division.



I put $10 on it what the hell.

Many of these 100 to 1 bets are actually priced a lot worse than they should be. Vegas doesnt set 1,000 to 1, 10,000 to 1, etc bets because no one would spend a decent amount of money on that bet if it were priced fairly. They'd correctly see it as a lottery ticket rather than a traditional wager. However, if you set these highly unlikely bets at only 100 to 1, many people will fool themselves into thinking "well... if Vegas thinks its 100 to 1, maybe its worth a shot!" and they throw their money away on a bet with lottery-like odds thats not paying them enough should the unthinkable happen.

In other words, if Vegas was offering fair odds on that bet, a $100 ticket on KC to win it all should pay you something closer to a million rather than only 10,000.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Messier

Really? Hmmm, I don't think the Chiefs are in a decline. Is there "decline" in football? A teams problems can be solved on a year to year basis.

And the Royals being on the rise? Where do you see it? They lost 100 games last year. The Royals will not make the playoffs this year. They will not make it next year. The Royals problems will take years 5 or more plus a few changes to the way baseball is run.

Royals are a team on the rise its pretty obivous if you follow minor league talent - Gordon, Butler and company are some of the best prospects. Royals will be in the playoffs within 5 years mark it down barring major injuries.

[Messier]

Well good, maybe the Royals will only lose 90 games this year.

[StcChief]

.500 at best 81-81

[Ultra Peanut]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Hope and Faith: How the Kansas City Royals can Win the World Series



Pretty funny read, individually each one of the things in that article could happen, but when you start to tally up the odds of everything that happened in this fairy-tale story its comical.

BP's PECOTA projections don't find much fault wi--oh.

AL CENTRAL

Depth Chart Based PECOTA Projections (updated 3/23):

W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Cleveland Indians 90 72 858 763 .270 .347 .455
Minnesota Twins 90 72 835 741 .285 .349 .428
Detroit Tigers 85 77 789 744 .275 .335 .442
Chicago White Sox 72 90 773 866 .268 .331 .440
Kansas City Royals 67 95 770 913 .272 .336 .430

...

Kansas City Royals (67-95)

Take the Over: Zack Greinke is an obvious choice, given his excellent spring and backstory issues.

Take the Under: Mark Teahen’s longer-term track record, which involved little power in the minor leagues, leaves me skeptical about his ability to sustain his offensive breakout.

Sticking to My Guns: There is no rational reason to expect Gil Meche to be much good.

The Verdict: A mentally healthy Greinke could be a three or four win upgrade. Still, the Royals have a few veteran pieces that are likely to get traded away, and as with the Nationals, the starting rotation is in such disorder that any problems are likely to snowball. We’ll go with a gentle -1 for a 66-96 record.

And this, well, I don't know what to think of this:

Chicago Cubs (85-77)

Take the Over: Carlos Zambrano’s PERAs have been 3.80, 3.90, and 4.03 over his past three seasons; that’s why PECOTA expects this year’s actual ERA to be 3.85. Still, he’s a sufficiently unique pitcher that I think we need to give some credit for intelligent situational pitching. In particular, Zambrano seems to have the ability to be selectively wild; he’s given up a paltry .305 OBP to leadoff hitters over the course of his career.

Take the Under: Surprisingly tough to find one. I like Matt Murton, but suspect that PECOTA slightly overrates his power.

Sticking to My Guns: Alfonso Soriano’s breakout was very robust last year, featuring improvements in walk rate, flyball rate, and defense. I’ll vouch for PECOTA’s 42 HR projection with the cushion of Wrigley Field.

The Verdict: It’s easy to be skeptical when a team has had so much go wrong for it, but the projections for Zambrano and Derrek Lee look low, and it remains to be seen how much of the Cubs’ "bad luck" was in fact the result of employing a bad manager. Add two wins for 87-75; 90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

Maybe... this is... the...

Sorry, couldn't keep a straight face.

[Cochise]

Meche is an upgrade for us, no matter what baseball prospectus thinks of his salary. We turned over the whole rotation from last year, there are two proven guys now at the end of a bullpen that blew more than 30 saves, and the team didn't play that badly after they staggered out of the gates last year. And this is discounting the Alex Gordon factor, the should-be improved defense at SS, the benefits of less plate appearances for John Buck, and the maturing of anyone else on the roster.

I think we'll be around 70 wins, but could be a few better. They have done enough to the team for a 10 game improvement.

[beavis]

I don't want any of you haters on the bandwagon when October rolls around...

[ROYC75]

What the hell can 2 blonde bimbo's know about baseball ?

[Nzoner]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Many of these 100 to 1 bets are actually priced a lot worse than they should be. Vegas doesnt set 1,000 to 1, 10,000 to 1, etc bets because no one would spend a decent amount of money on that bet if it were priced fairly. They'd correctly see it as a lottery ticket rather than a traditional wager. However, if you set these highly unlikely bets at only 100 to 1, many people will fool themselves into thinking "well... if Vegas thinks its 100 to 1, maybe its worth a shot!" and they throw their money away on a bet with lottery-like odds thats not paying them enough should the unthinkable happen.

In other words, if Vegas was offering fair odds on that bet, a $100 ticket on KC to win it all should pay you something closer to a million rather than only 10,000.

I agree on all counts,however,seeing that I can drop $10 on blackjack or slots in a matter of minutes I thought what the hell I'm on vacation.

I also did about 14 NFL futures bets,one which had KC at 16/1 to win the AFC.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Cochise

Meche is an upgrade for us, no matter what baseball prospectus thinks of his salary.

If the Cardinals or Braves signed Meche for that, everybody would be saying what a great signing.

[Messier]

Originally Posted by beavis

I don't want any of you haters on the bandwagon when October rolls around...

The Royals are a bad team, historicly bad if you want the truth. Name some other teams that lost 100 games in three out of four seasons. How am I hating? I'm just going by track record.

[Dr. Johnny Fever]

I enjoyed that read. Think I'll take a nap and try to dream it myself.