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Old 06-24-2007, 06:02 PM  
mikey23545 mikey23545 is offline
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The Global Warming Test...

Based on measurable and recorded scientific facts (for those that have the attention span to complete it....)

Global Warming Test

I had a perfect score...How about you?
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Old 06-24-2007, 06:09 PM   #2
Logical Logical is offline
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Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.Logical is not part of the Right 53.
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Old 06-24-2007, 07:13 PM   #3
tiptap tiptap is offline
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Well, I walked through this test.
The first question is correct. We are in an interglacial period and I would add an unusually long duration one. It is this background that climatologists had expectations that temperatures should eventually go down and magazines trumpeted this way beyond what climatologists saw as the time scale for cooling. And against this expectation that the quick rise in temperature of the last 20th early 21st century is such a surprise.

The 2nd question substantiates that CO 2 does elevate temperatures above expectation as a GreenHouse Gas as well as water and methane. So the question is then if CO 2 levels have risen 30% over the last half of the 20th century why wouldn't we see an effect. Admittedly it alone it would be small but it provides a base for a small increase that supports a higher water vapor which magnifies the effect again.

The third question is correct. The sun is the ultimate source for heating the sun and earth eccentricities in orbit have a great deal with this. Accounting for the temperatures from 0 Kelvin to 253 Kelvin. But as stated in question one and again in this question Greenhouse Gases bring the temperatures up another 40 degrees.

Water vapor ok. And higher night temperatures means more energy. And while biological systems in any single year dwarf human production it is cyclical as result of land mass located in Northern Hemisphere. The addition is human sourced over time as indicated by C 12 C 14 ratio change in the CO 2.

The NOAA chart states .11 degree average rise per decade over the last century. That translates to over a degree centigrade as oppose to less than .2. The chart shown quits in 1995 with the 8 of the hottest years coming after 1995.

6 CO 2 indicated by proxy methods become more suspect as you go 100 of million of years back in time. But it is important to remember that we have already agreed that the sun is the primary source of heat for earth and Nuclear Star Expenditure was 25% less earlier in Earth's life than now. (See Main Star life cycle) It was probable about 5% less at the end of Cretaceous. So the extra CO 2 was important in getting those higher temperatures with less solar energy. No one thinks past rise in temperatures were initially brought about by CO 2. It was sustained and multiplied by increase in CO 2. The peculiarities of the 20th century phenomenon is unusual and human CO 2 is the new constituent.

7 While CO 2 doesn't hurt forests, acid rains and other smokestack gases do. A lot of this in western production has been addressed. Damn the chinese.

8 The chart with Medieval Warming followed by Little Ice Age is indeed a early chart of temperatures OF EUROPE from early IPAA. The evidence for world temperature trends do not follow this and the IPAA has addressed this many times about this specific early chart.

9 The increase temperatures at night is the concern. Clouds are the real unknown in the climate models. But note if there are more clouds that means there has to be more water vapor and we already stated this is the largest GreenHouse gas.

10. The weather satellite data does not substantiate this statement. The initial results did but upon review there was real temperature rise.
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Old 06-24-2007, 07:20 PM   #4
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I got 'em all right except for the last one. Thanks for the link, mikey23545!
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Old 06-24-2007, 07:46 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiptap
The peculiarities of the 20th century phenomenon is unusual and human CO 2 is the new constituent.
Thats the unpleasant truth that the test does not address, but is the main factor driving the consensus alarm. (I also got 100% - too easy).



http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_50k_yrs.html
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Old 06-24-2007, 07:56 PM   #6
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Here's a temp vs CO2 graph going back 400,000 years or so. Notice the CO2 spiking after the industrial revolution (right border of graph). Thats what is worrying everybody but Republicans and "scientists" paid by oil companies.





http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Pre...ning/New_Data/

Notice how CO2 concentration rises vertically at the end of the time series. The increase appears vertical because of the large time scale, but it actually occurs over the past 150 years, which corresponds to the age of fossil fuels (the modern industrial age). Notice too that there hasn't been a corresponding increase in temperature during this time period. This is probably due to the ability of the oceans to function as a heat sink, and thereby delay the increase in atmospheric temperatures. However, there are recent indications that the oceans are now warming, which will reduce their ability to act as a heat sink.
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Old 06-24-2007, 08:49 PM   #7
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I should admit I missed two. But both of those are wrong. the NOAA states that we have over a degree and half rise in average temperature over the length of the records. And the satellite data does support a rise in temperature through to the tropopause.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...cag3/cag3.html and choose National to get to page to choose annual for temperature.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements
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Old 06-24-2007, 11:58 PM   #8
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But seriously, Global Warming is pretty much fact. It makes too much sense. The debate should be whether humans are to blame. Which I think they are - at least partially.
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Old 06-25-2007, 12:28 AM   #9
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I think I will go burn the tree prunings to help out a bit, it has been pretty freaking cool here all summer so far. Summer begins on memorial day here in the valley.
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Old 06-25-2007, 10:48 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugly Duck
Here's a temp vs CO2 graph going back 400,000 years or so. Notice the CO2 spiking after the industrial revolution (right border of graph). Thats what is worrying everybody but Republicans and "scientists" paid by oil companies.





http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Pre...ning/New_Data/

Notice how CO2 concentration rises vertically at the end of the time series. The increase appears vertical because of the large time scale, but it actually occurs over the past 150 years, which corresponds to the age of fossil fuels (the modern industrial age). Notice too that there hasn't been a corresponding increase in temperature during this time period. This is probably due to the ability of the oceans to function as a heat sink, and thereby delay the increase in atmospheric temperatures. However, there are recent indications that the oceans are now warming, which will reduce their ability to act as a heat sink.

The Inconvenient Truth all tree huggers like to ignore is that the rise in CO2 levels tracks (lags) temp rises...In other words, by some mechanism that is not fully understood, temperature rises causes a rise in CO2 levels, not vice versa. When plotted with the right timescale, it is obvious. In Algore's movie, they actually show temps and CO2 levels on seperate graphs to keep it from showing....
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Old 06-25-2007, 10:52 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey23545
The Inconvenient Truth all tree huggers like to ignore is that the rise in CO2 levels tracks (lags) temp rises...In other words, by some mechanism that is not fully understood, temperature rises causes a rise in CO2 levels, not vice versa. When plotted with the right timescale, it is obvious. In Algore's movie, they actually show temps and CO2 levels on seperate graphs to keep it from showing....
I'm looking at a graph of them both on there and I can't tell by looking at it which is causing what, so I don't think AIC is misleading.
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Old 06-25-2007, 11:17 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey23545
The Inconvenient Truth all tree huggers like to ignore is that the rise in CO2 levels tracks (lags) temp rises...In other words, by some mechanism that is not fully understood, temperature rises causes a rise in CO2 levels, not vice versa. When plotted with the right timescale, it is obvious. In Algore's movie, they actually show temps and CO2 levels on seperate graphs to keep it from showing....

Personally I found the movie boring and repetitive. However the graph showing the CO2 levels for the last several hundred thousand years and the rises in CO2 levels during the last few ice ages I found to be very convincing. I have long held the belief that most of what we are calling Global Warming is a natural cycle. But when you see that we are literally off the chart compared to previous ice ages it should be pretty clear that we humans are indeed having an affect on the CO2 levels that is unprecedented.
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Old 06-25-2007, 11:55 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey23545
The Inconvenient Truth all tree huggers like to ignore is that the rise in CO2 levels tracks (lags) temp rises...In other words, by some mechanism that is not fully understood, temperature rises causes a rise in CO2 levels, not vice versa. When plotted with the right timescale, it is obvious. In Algore's movie, they actually show temps and CO2 levels on seperate graphs to keep it from showing....
How convenient.
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Old 06-25-2007, 12:25 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hydrae
Personally I found the movie boring and repetitive. However the graph showing the CO2 levels for the last several hundred thousand years and the rises in CO2 levels during the last few ice ages I found to be very convincing. I have long held the belief that most of what we are calling Global Warming is a natural cycle. But when you see that we are literally off the chart compared to previous ice ages it should be pretty clear that we humans are indeed having an affect on the CO2 levels that is unprecedented.

I have always wondered why mankind was so arrogant to think they could really have an adverse impact as a whole on the planet. Localized, of course. But overall, come one, we are just a small part of the marble we call Earth.

It will probably be discovered that termite farts also cause an increase in the global temps....
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Old 06-25-2007, 12:50 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bkkcoh
I have always wondered why mankind was so arrogant to think they could really have an adverse impact as a whole on the planet. Localized, of course. But overall, come one, we are just a small part of the marble we call Earth.

It will probably be discovered that termite farts also cause an increase in the global temps....

Arrogance, absolutely. I have used that term in regards to how we view the history of the Earth and what we think we "know." But when the CO2 levels currently are (from my memory of the movie) 4-5 times higher than at any time during the last 4 or so Ice Ages, something is different this time around. This does not appear to my unscientific mind to be a natural cycle due to the immense variance from what we can see as "normal."
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