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View Poll Results: Wiil he pull a huge upset and become the Republican candidate?
Yes 5 17.24%
No 21 72.41%
Have you lost your mind Logical (nevermind of course you have) 3 10.34%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-01-2007, 03:49 PM  
Logical Logical is offline
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Ron Paul populist movement will it gain traction?

Will he pull a huge upset and become the Republican candidate?
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Old 07-01-2007, 04:59 PM   #2
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His chances are only slightly better than Mayor Bloomberg's which are hovering steadily at zero.
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Old 07-01-2007, 05:58 PM   #3
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I wish, but realistically no. Ideally yes.
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Old 07-01-2007, 06:55 PM   #4
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I say he's still a longshot because of name recognition only...BUT the 2004 election was the first election, or so say the pundits, where the blogosphere had an impact. And Paul is BIG, I mean BIG on the net with support.

I was surfing one night just for election sites and he came up consistently with like 45% to 60%!

His campaign could be an earthquake though.

Even Newt Gingrich has noticed, and even alluded to a possible Paul win....because all the top tier Republicans sound like George Bush.

He mainly needs money. There was a mathematical breakdown on some articles on LewRockwell on what it would take to get him that money...if that happened it could happen. I wouldn't take much something like if enough gave.
And if he won it; he'd beat Hillary in the national election.
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Old 07-01-2007, 07:06 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
I say he's still a longshot because of name recognition only...BUT the 2004 election was the first election, or so say the pundits, where the blogosphere had an impact. And Paul is BIG, I mean BIG on the net with support.

I was surfing one night just for election sites and he came up consistently with like 45% to 60%!
Is that why he's polling under 1%?

He has a very loud, very small group on the internet supporting him who are committed to flooding polls like they did the text message poll for the Fox News debate when he clearly went over like a fart in a spacesuit.

Can a sub-also-ran candidate be a "movement"? Well, not that kind of movement...
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Old 07-01-2007, 07:15 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
Is that why he's polling under 1%?
You always say that despite being told three times now that Paul has not even been mentioned in all those polls and/or has little name recognition.

He needs money to change that.

Quote:
He has a very loud, very small group on the internet supporting him who are committed to flooding polls like they did the text message poll for the Fox News debate when he clearly went over like a fart in a spacesuit.
Yet his name recognition went up after the debates too.

He may just have a more passionate group of supporters on the web, however I've read articles that interviewed those sites and as far as they can tell it's sincere and is not double voting.

Also, people are not particularly excited about the top tier candidates either. These guys are simply out-of-touch. And if Thompson continues with his adoption of all things Bush: compassionate conservatism, support for Iraq and still claims it was right to go in, and a blockade on Iran which is an act-of-war...well I say anything can happen between now and then. But the GOP loses the main election with that message and it is the message. I could supported him but when I saw him say that on Fox....forget it!

Note also I said "could"....I did not say "will." Nor did I vote for that reason. The key would be money...and that's what he needs. But don't underestimate the net's effect....it did have an effect in 2004.
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Old 07-01-2007, 07:41 PM   #7
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As a huge Ron Paul fan, I voted No.

The Republican party isn't ready to implode just yet. Maybe in '12.
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Old 07-01-2007, 07:46 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
You always say that despite being told three times now that Paul has not even been mentioned in all those polls and/or has little name recognition.

He needs money to change that.


Yet his name recognition went up after the debates too.

He may just have a more passionate group of supporters on the web, however I've read articles that interviewed those sites and as far as they can tell it's sincere and is not double voting.

Also, people are not particularly excited about the top tier candidates either. These guys are simply out-of-touch. And if Thompson continues with his adoption of all things Bush: compassionate conservatism, support for Iraq and still claims it was right to go in, and a blockade on Iran which is an act-of-war...well I say anything can happen between now and then. But the GOP loses the main election with that message and it is the message. I could supported him but when I saw him say that on Fox....forget it!

Note also I said "could"....I did not say "will." Nor did I vote for that reason. The key would be money...and that's what he needs. But don't underestimate the net's effect....it did have an effect in 2004.
Truthfully I think you are letting your desire overcome your rationality.
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Old 07-01-2007, 08:34 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Logical
Truthfully I think you are letting your desire overcome your rationality.
I really don't appreciate psychological evaluations on a BB. The truth of the matter is I go up-and-down on it and I never said he "will." As I posted before I'm not gonna make such a certain predcition. I won't even do that for a football game.

I think it's very remote. But as a creatively inclined person, I do believe anything can be possible because I never thought he'd even create some of the effects he's created to date. There's been sudden shifts and unexpected things that have happened in history before. Afterall, the idea of woman's suffrage was considered "impossible" and not a contender including in men's smoking parlors...then suddenly it was passed. It wasn't exactly expected either.
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Old 07-01-2007, 08:51 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
I really don't appreciate psychological evaluations on a BB. The truth of the matter is I go up-and-down on it and I never said he "will." As I posted before I'm not gonna make such a certain predcition. I won't even do that for a football game.

I think it's very remote. But as a creatively inclined person, I do believe anything can be possible because I never thought he'd even create some of the effects he's created to date. There's been sudden shifts and unexpected things that have happened in history before. Afterall, the idea of woman's suffrage was considered "impossible" and not a contender including in men's smoking parlors...then suddenly it was passed. It wasn't exactly expected either.
Hold on, I may make pscych evals but that was not one of them. That was me viewing your post based on cold hard logic as I see it.
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Old 07-02-2007, 06:17 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
Afterall, the idea of woman's suffrage was considered "impossible" and not a contender including in men's smoking parlors...then suddenly it was passed.
And everything went downhill after that.
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Old 07-02-2007, 06:47 AM   #12
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I went to a Ron Paul rally in Des Moines on Saturday. Great event he had 1000 or so people there. I was really impressed. Now I wonder if he is going to be able to get those people to their caucuses in January.
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Old 07-02-2007, 08:05 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
I went to a Ron Paul rally in Des Moines on Saturday. Great event he had 1000 or so people there. I was really impressed. Now I wonder if he is going to be able to get those people to their caucuses in January.
I heard about that. I am also hearing he's a big hit with the young crowd too. I'm also hearing about people who are changing party registration just to be able to nominate him.

Dean used the net effectively but his party sandbagged him because they didn't want another McGovern. Plan on the GOP Establishment pulling out all the stops to do the same if this movement gets bigger even if he raises the money. They don't like him. Don't forget it was someone in the GOP who allegedly threatened Perot.

Here's what Murray Sabrin, Ph.D.,professor of finance in the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey, where he is executive director of the Center for Business and Public Policy. I've seen this on several sites.


Quote:
For Ron to become one of the "top tier" GOP candidates he has to have one quality that he does not have now – a media-anointed celebrity status. Currently, the top tier candidates are "celebrities" – Rudy, McCain, Romney, and Newt (even though he has not announced his candidacy). Ron can become a top tier candidate and a serious contender for the nomination if he can raise more funds than his own advisors, I suspect, think is possible by December 31, 2007.

According to many pundits, each of the leading candidates in both parties could raise as much as $100 million by the time the primaries are over. So, for the media to characterize anyone a top tier candidate throughout the year, he or she should be on track to raise at least $50 million or more. Could any of the presidential candidates that are currently in the back of the pack raise anywhere near that daunting amount?

If $50 million is the minimum that a candidate will have to raise to be taken seriously by the media, then every lesser-known candidate needs 50,000 individuals to make an average contribution of $1,000 to give him a $50 million war chest. (The maximum individual contribution is $2,300 per primary and general election.)

Ron’s political base is fiscal conservatives, anti-tax citizens, anti-war Republicans, Democrats and Independents, constitutionalists, hard-money advocates, small business owners, civil libertarians, anti-universal healthcare physicians, pro-lifers, parents who home school, and anyone else who considers himself a real patriot. In other words, if Ron’s substantial base provides him with volunteers, contributions and votes, he would be a very competitive candidate.

In the final analysis, about 50,000 to 100.000 Americans could determine the next presidential nominees of both parties. In the GOP presidential primary, if Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, or any other lesser known candidate excites GOP voters for the next 12 months, then Rudy, McCain and Romney will prove that in a marathon it is not who leads the pack that counts but who is the turtle in the race.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig3/sabrin5.html


There was another article that said if Paul supporters mailed in just $7 a month he could raise it too. This is only one of his major hurdles. Next will be dirty tricks of the Etablishment, mainly GOP, possibly some on the left and their media handmaidens.
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Old 07-02-2007, 04:53 PM   #14
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Only bkkcoh has availed himself of the opportunity to declare my insanity. I must be OK afterall.
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Old 07-02-2007, 05:05 PM   #15
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no, but until they officially nominate someone else, I'll keep hoping
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