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Old 07-19-2001, 10:07 PM  
Chiefs Pantalones Chiefs Pantalones is offline
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Will Grbac succeed or fail in Baltimore?...

Just curious as to what everyone thinks...

Why will he or won't he succeed, will he win over the fans, will he give Bmore back to back Championships, etc?

CG

and if no one wants to discuss this, thats fine. If you guys feel this has been beaten into the ground, I'll delete this topic, if ya'll want me too.:D

I'm a nice guy:p
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Old 07-19-2001, 11:58 PM   #2
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Well, Cody, let's compare the2000 Chiefs with the 2001 Ravens and see what we find:

The Baltimore defense (and special teams, as well) is clearly better than the Chiefs of last year, so there's no need to touch on that.

[b]Running Back[/b]

Tony Richardson, Kimble Anders, Mike Cloud, Frank Moreau and Donnell Bennett vs. Jamal Lewis

Advantage Ravens right?

Not so fast, my friend!

Lewis is a good runner, however there are two legitimate concerns:

1) He's clearly an injury risk.
2) He's simply not a good receiver (27 receptions in 2000). This fact is further evident in one important statistic, in all of 2000 he had 17 carries and 3 receptions on 3rd and 4th down combined. That's about 1.25 per game. Compare this with some other NFL backs from last season:

Eddie George had 37 carries and 16 receptions, 3.3 touches/game.
Marshall Faulk had 19 carries and 17 receptions, 2.5 touches/game.
Edgerrin James had 39 carries and 15 receptions, 3.4 touches/game.

Our guy Tony Richardson had 29 carries and 17 receptions, 2.9 touches/game.

Fact is, Lewis just didn't get the ball after second down. Our new starting back, Priest Holmes, had more touches on 3rd down than Lewis did last year, 10 carries and 13 receptions.

Consider this, as well:[quote][b]Ravens | Keeping Eyes Open for RB?[/b]

July 7, 2001 10:52:05 PT According to SportsLine.coms Len Pasquarelli the Baltimore Ravens may keep their eyes open for a veteran running back in the coming weeks. Rookie Chris Barnes is currently the top backup to starter Jamal Lewis and the Ravens only have undrafted rookie free agents Derek Homer and Aaron Kernek behind Barnes.[/quote]
I wonder if they're looking for someone who can catch...

In any event, I think about it this way: conventional logic would say that the RB situation in Baltimore is a lot better than it was in KC in 2000, but there are problems there if you look carefully. Lewis is not a capable reciever, IMHO (also check his college receiving numbers...), and there's questionable depth, at best, at RB following the departure of Holmes.

I say advantage Baltimore, but not by as wide a margin as most would think. Lewis will run for yardage, but he won't be as good a safety valve for Grbac while under pressure as T-Rich was last season.


[b]Wide Receiver[/b]

Derrick Alexander, Sylvester Morris and Kevin Lockett vs. Travis Taylor, Brandon Stokley and Qadry Ismail.

Advantage KC, by about the same margin as Baltimore won the RB battle, in my opinion. I wouldn't consider either team to have a particularly strong lineup at WR, although Derrick Alexander gives KC the edge.


[b]Tight End[/b]

Tony Gonzalez vs. Shannon Sharpe.

Again, advantage KC, but Sharpe is still a good one.


[b]Offensive Line[/b]

Jeff Blackshear, Tim Grunhard, Victor Riley, Will Shields and John Tait vs. Mike Flynn, Edwin Mulitalo, Jonathan Ogdon, Leon Searcy and Kipp Vickers.

I say that's a push, although it's difficult to completely gauge Baltimore's line without being entirely sure who the starters are...


[b]Coaching/Offensive Coordinating[/b]

Gunther Cunningham and Jimmy Raye vs. Brian Billick and Matt Cavanaugh.

I'm biased, obviously, but this is the one place where I see Baltimore as having a clear-cut advantage over KC.

So, all-in-all, in my opinion, Elvis had a slightly better array of (receiving) weapons at his disposal here in Kansas City than he has inherited in Baltimore, and I will say, without reservation, that he will come nowhere close to repeating his 2000 numbers, in large part because of the fact that the Baltimore offense will be far more balanced than the Raye-Gun Chiefs of 2000, which will result in more team success but fewer personal accolates for Elvis.
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So,considering all of those factors as well as my personal experiences and observations of Grbac, I predict this for Elvis in 2001:

He will finish the season with less than 3500 yards passing, 20-25 TDs and 15 interceptions, and, although he will have played well, he will not be returning to the Pro Bowl (Trent Green, with 3800 yards passing, 30 TDs and 12 interceptions will keep him out). Baltimore will finish 10-6, but fall short of winning a second Super Bowl. How Baltimore will respond to Grbac depends entirely on how well he manages his ego speaking with the media, and how well the team responds to him in the locker room, and I don't care to venture a guess as to how all that will play out. I will say that I think it's entirely possible that they can fail to win the Super Bowl and Elvis still survive, if, and only if, he can keep his foot out of his mouth
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Old 07-20-2001, 12:21 AM   #3
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FAIL FAIL FAIL!

The reason being................
Trent Dilfer took them to a big game......and helped to win them that game. Trent did what he could with that offense with what few offensive weapons they had, yet the offense didn't score. Everyone blamed this on Trent and now come to find that he WINS the quarterback challenge.......something I KNOW Elvis could not do. Turns out it was pry the recievers and not Trent. Well, I think those are some big shoes to fill.......and Elvis will not be able to do anything more with a weak offense than the better man could.
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Old 07-20-2001, 12:34 AM   #4
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Good post, Kyle

Very good take, I applaud you!!

CG

is seriously impressed!:eek:


I'm not being biased, either, but I think Elvis will dictate how Elvis does. And I think(as you put it) he will end up putting his foot in his mouth, because thats the Elvis we all know and love. He will never change, IMO.

"I wasn't throwing the ball away, I was throwing it to Sharpe but he didn't run fast enough...er something"

:D
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Old 07-20-2001, 12:44 AM   #5
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The problem with Grbac isn't a talent or ability issue. His problem is decision making. Too often times he forces balls into tight spaces and or double coverage. Sometimes, he doesn't even look when throwing an out route. He gets on hot streaks, and they abruptly end when he throws an interception and it gets returned by a safety he obviously didn't see for a touchdown. Grbac also benifited from Gonzalez making some pretty unbelievable catches on overthrown balls. I don't see him getting very good numbers this year, unless he truely learns from his past mistakes.
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Old 07-20-2001, 12:57 AM   #6
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When Joe Seahawk gave us the link to the Ravens BB earlier on, I took my time to browse and see what the fans of Bmore think of Grbac, it turns out, they sound alot like us former-Grbackers...in denial.:eek:

CG

admits he was wrong about Grbac
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Old 07-20-2001, 01:09 AM   #7
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I'm with you Cody. I really supported Grbac while he was here (which any fan should), and I still am appalled by the way most fans treated him during his tenure. But I am glad he's gone. I am once again optimistic about Trent and company. Maybe I'm in denial again, maybe I'm just a fan... Then again, maybe the Chiefs will go undefeated and surprise the universe. :) :D
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Old 07-20-2001, 01:22 AM   #8
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mmc,

Thats what I was about to post.

That I respect the Ravens fans (like you said, they are supporting him, like we did when he was a Chief) all they are doing is being fans. Some of us supported him, not all. I think its going to be the same way in Bmore. Some support him, some don't. Poor Elvis...he thought he was leaving Kansas City but so far KC has followed him. Must of broke a mirror.

This is going to be tough for Elvis, IMO, the fans won't except anything but back to back. And if Elvis doesn't deliver, there will be crys for Dilfer, IMO.

CG

pressure...no pressure, all he has to do is win the Super Bowl:rolleyes:



ps. those are actually Sharpes words, BTW. but he was not being sarcastic, like me.
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Old 07-20-2001, 01:56 AM   #9
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keg in kc= excellent post, covered most of the bases with that post, DEF was not included and I see your reasons why considering their DEF. Elvis will surely have some success in Balt., how much? Who knows. He will have some moments that we all are famaliar with. One thing I find interesting about Grbac being Balt. QB is that Shannon Sharpe hasn't brought his big mouth out about repeating yet. I really think Sharpe wanted Dilfer back in Balt., he has seen Grbac play firsthand and I am sure he has some very serious concerns about his QB. I remember a answer from aquestion to Shannon just after Grbac signed. He was asked if he thinks Grbac was an improvement for the team. His response was something like if we get to the SB and win then it is an improvement, if not then it was the wrong personnel move. In my eyes Grbac already has legitimate problems with his only proven veteren reciever and more and more it looks like Grbac will never be totally accepted where ever he goes and for him and his fragile personality he will never find the success that he is looking for.

aturnis= I agree with you somewhat. I believe Trent Dilfer is a reason that the Ravens won the SB but the biggest reason was the 2000 Raven DEF which by all means was arguably the best DEF of all-time

Cody= I agree he will never change.

mmccann2333=I agree with you in terms of football perspective about Grbac, when you add the whole personality complex that he has into the equation he doesn't look even worth anything to a team IMO with his "I didn't do it" attitude.
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Old 07-20-2001, 06:01 AM   #10
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Well, I'm going to go against the grain here a bit.

I think EG will thrive in Baltimore for a couple of reasons:

1. Billick does wonders with QBs. Look at Minnesota. Granted, they've got Carter and Moss, but Billick seems to be one of those guys that can read what a QB is capable of and put him into a situation where he will succeed.

2. The defense. They will keep games close and make it so that EG never has to play catch up. We've all seen how the guy responds in two minute drills.

3. Physical ability. The Ravens have never had the kind of arm that EG has ... as much as he makes mistakes, you can't deny that he does have a cannon.

Of course, this all assumes that he learned from his past mistakes and keeps his yapper shut. The Ravens had some incredible chemistry last year, and getting rid of Dilfer will hurt that. Say what you want about Dilfer, but he is a genuinely good guy who gets the support of his teammates (although the fans hated him. Why I'm not sure. He's not flashy, not the second coming of Unitas, but a great leader.) Elvis needs to step up and be a leader without bad mouthing his teammates or wearing, say, a NY Yankees cap in an interview (similar to wearing an Indians hat while here in KC).

If he just does his job, he'll be the perfect fit, IMO.

MM
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Old 07-20-2001, 06:22 AM   #11
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Succeed.

Grbac will be fine. The Ravens will not ask him to win games; they will just ask him not to screw up. The pressure that he had in KC will not be there in Baltimore. True, Grbac will not have Gonzalez, which will hurt him a bit, but the Ravens Defense is the engine that drives that team. Trading Grbac for Dilfer is not a downgrade.

Grbac leaving KC for Baltimore is a win/win situation. The well in KC was so poisoned that Grbac would never have been accepted, even with another Pro Bowl season. He gets a fresh start in Baltimore, in a system that fits his skills quite nicely.

KC also wins. Not just because a large percentage of the fan base despised Grbac, but because Grbac would have been a terrible fit with the new up-tempo Offense coming to the R&G.

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Old 07-20-2001, 06:39 AM   #12
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Most of it has already been said, but I agree that Grbac should succeed. I've allways been of the opinion that Dilfer and Grbac were very similar. Good physical talent, but suffered from making bad decisions in critical situations.

If Dilfer could perform with that team, I think Grbac could and should do the same since the team has not changed appreciably.

It will be interesting to watch from afar and see what happens on this BB should Grbac perform well.
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Old 07-20-2001, 06:42 AM   #13
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SI's Dr. Z seems to agree with Mark and Gaz.

When asked whether Brad Johnson or Elvis would help their team the most, he responded:

<i>I think Grbac will have a better year because he'll be in a better offensive system, getting better coaching.</i>

Of course, Bob Dole thinks that Elvis would receive better coaching if he signed with the Katy High Tigers...
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Old 07-20-2001, 07:55 AM   #14
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Here's my take on Grbac...
This is a tough question because (a) it depends on how you define success and (b) not many teams have been able to successfully defend their SB titles in back-to-back years.

Grbac will be a success if he greatly elevates the Raven's passing game compared to 2000, and doing so not at the expense of the running game.

Don't judge Grbac on whether or not they win another SuperBowl (like Sharpe will do), b/c he can only control the offense... not the defense or special teams.

So, on offense, if the Ravens are able to maintain the consistency of the 2000 running game while greatly improving the passing game and scoring ... Grbac is a success.

Last season, the Raven QBs amassed the following stats:

504 attempts and 287 completions (Dilfer 134 of 226)
3102 passing yards (Dilfer 1502)
20 TDs and 19 Ints (Dilfer 12 / 11)
43 Sacks (Dilfer 23 sacks)

So, if Grbac can do better than the combined QB numbers and get a li'l help from the O-line in the sacks department... he will be a success.

It is very hard to win one SB, much less two in a row. So, it is very unfair to say "Hell, even Dilfer won one with this team... Grbac sucks if he doesn't win one this year."

2001 will be the season that the Raven's offense will have to match the Raven's defense in production. They won't have such an easy road....
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Old 07-20-2001, 08:07 AM   #15
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How will success be measured?

If anything short of winning the SB is a failure for Grbac, then there is a good chance he can not succeed.
Winning back to back SBs is a tall order especially in this era of FA.

Perhaps the question should be can Elvis achieve a high level of play in BMore?

To that question, I say yes.

Elvis will benefit from good coaching for the first time in his career as a starter.
With Jamal Lewis as his RB, his play fake will be even more effective, because Lewis is a decoy that can not be ignored.
With defenses frozen by the play fake, it will give his receivers an opportunity to get open, and Elvis can hit the open receiver.

Finally, unlike KC last season, the onus of winning will not fall on Elvis' shoulder.
With the Raven defense, Elvis and the offense will be able to get out to early leads, and with Billick as HC, they will not go into a protect mode to maintain that lead.

He won't put up the kind of numbers that he did last season, but he will be more effective, and efficient.
JMHO.
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