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Old 12-19-2007, 07:11 AM  
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Rudy and Huck tied in national polls

Poor Jake

Someone needs to find him before he offs himself.

I am sure he will come on and post 500 different polls showing Rudy winning though.

Quote:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...52159120071219

Huckabee, Giuliani tied in 2008 Republican race
Wed Dec 19, 2007 7:12am EST

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Mike Huckabee has surged into a virtual tie with front-runner Rudy Giuliani in the national 2008 Republican presidential race two weeks before the first contest, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas whose campaign has caught fire in recent weeks, wiped out an 18-point deficit in one month to pull within one point of Giuliani, 23 percent to 22 percent.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton's national advantage over second-place rival Barack Obama shrunk slightly to eight percentage points as the races for the White House tightened in both parties. Clinton had an 11-point edge last month.

The shifting numbers have changed the shape of a dynamic presidential race two weeks before Iowa on January 3 kicks off the state-by-state process of choosing candidates in each party for the November 2008 election.

"Huckabee is on a roll, he has gotten an enormous amount of publicity and he is doing very well with conservatives, who at least for now appear to have found a candidate," pollster John Zogby said.

Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has led most national polls since early in the year, saw his support drop from 29 percent to 23 percent in the survey. His one-point lead over Huckabee was well within the poll's 4.8 percentage point margin of error.

Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent.
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Old 12-19-2007, 07:15 AM   #2
wazu wazu is offline
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And here I thought the Republican "base" couldn't come up with a candidate I liked less than Rudy...
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Old 12-19-2007, 07:27 AM   #3
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Some good analysis from TPM.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/1...rudy_falls.php

State By State, Huck Rises And Rudy Falls
By Eric Kleefeld - December 18, 2007, 4:28PM
Just how drastic has Mike Huckabee's rise been? We've put together a sampling of polls from various primary states, and the effect is quite startling, not only in Iowa but across the country. Furthermore, the last two months have turned to be pretty rough for Rudy Giuliani, who was relying on his national popularity to see him through.

The trends, as can be seen in this graph, are very striking:



More analysis after the jump.

In Iowa, Huckabee has risen up an amazing 21 points, while both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have declined. Rudy's campaign has all but given up on a win in Iowa, running their TV ads elsewhere, and he now struggles to get into the double digits.

New Hampshire has been the exception, with Huckabee rising only four points, and so far being unable to catch on here.

In Nevada, Huckabee has surged by 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.

In South Carolina, Huckabee has shot up 20 points, while Rudy has fallen nine. As voters in this Bible Belt state got a closer look at "America's Mayor," a lot of them just fell away to the undecided column and to other candidates and Huckabee probably got his piece somewhere along the line, along with Mitt Romney.

Florida seems to be in the same boat as South Carolina. Huckabee has gained an amazing 24 points since late September, while Rudy has plummeted by ten.

In Michigan, Huckabee has gained 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.

In California one of the big February 5 states that Rudy was banking on Huckabee has 20 points after not even being listed in earlier polls, and Rudy has dropped by 11.

Rudy's problem seems to be that he started off in this race as "America's Mayor," commanding respect even as many voters knew nothing about his positions on the issues or his storied personal life. As such, he had nowhere to go but down. Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, started out as an unknown who had a lot to offer the Republican base voter so he had nowhere to go but up.

Here are the full numbers:

Iowa Huckabee Giuliani Romney
10/10-14/2007 Rasmussen 18 13 25
11/12/2007 Rasmussen 16 15 29
11/26-27/2007 Rasmussen 28 12 25
12/10/2007 Rasmussen 39 8 23


New Hampshire
10/23/2007 Rasmussen 10 19 28
11/5/2007 Rasmussen 10 17 32
11/29/2007 Rasmussen 14 15 34
12/11/2007 Rasmussen 14 15 33


Nevada
10/9-11/2007 Mason-Dixon 2 28 17
11/9-13/2007 CNN 4 29 21
12/3-5/2007 McClatchy-MSNBC 17 25 20


South Carolina
9/26-27/2007 Rasmussen 3 20 15
11/20/2007 Rasmussen 12 13 21
12/3-4/2007 Rasmussen 25 12 18
12/16/2007 Rasmussen 23 11 23


Florida
9/19-20/2007 Rasmussen 3 29 11
11/18/2007 Rasmussen 9 27 19
12/13/2007 Rasmussen 27 19 23


Michigan
10/2-3/2007 InsiderAdvantage 6 19 16
11/7-13/2007 EPIC/MRA 9 28 25
11/30-12/3/2007 MIRS 19 11 20
12/4/2007 Rasmussen 21

California
10/12-14/2007 SurveyUSA n/a 39 14
11/2-4/2007 SurveyUSA 8 34 15
11/30-12/2/2007 SurveyUSA 14 32 14
12/14-16/2007 SurveyUSA 20 28 16
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Old 12-19-2007, 07:29 AM   #4
Chiefnj2 Chiefnj2 is offline
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If forced to choose between the two I'd go with scandalman (Rudy).
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Old 12-19-2007, 07:51 AM   #5
recxjake recxjake is offline
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Not after this ad!


And the Gallup poll released yesterday had Rudy up 11...
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:03 AM   #6
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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"National" polls at this point....are virtually meaningless, except as a barometer of current 'conventional wisdom' and name-recognition. Seriously.

The only polls that matter right now are the polls of the first 3-4 primary states/dates (and, currently, while Romney and Huck seem well-positioned, a brokered convention is just as likely at this point)....because the outcome in those will have a large and profound impact on subsequent primaries and, eventually, on the fluid and whimsical "national" polls.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:05 AM   #7
Chiefnj2 Chiefnj2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by recxjake
Not after this ad!
And the Gallup poll released yesterday had Rudy up 11...
A better ad idea would have been Rudy giving his wife a present and then sneaking off and giving his mistress a bigger gift.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:06 AM   #8
recxjake recxjake is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
"National" polls at this point....are virtually meaningless, except as a barometer of current 'conventional wisdom' and name-recognition. Seriously.

The only polls that matter right now are the polls of the first 3-4 primary states/dates (and, currently, while Romney and Huck seem well-positioned, a brokered convention is just as likely at this point)....because the outcome in those will have a large and profound impact on the fluid and whimsical "national" polls.
Agreed.

Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)
McCain will win NH
Fred will win S. Carolina
Rudy will win Michigan
Rudy will win Nevada
Rudy will win Florida

Feb 5- ???
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:06 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by recxjake
Not after this ad!
Yikes. I wouldn't spread this damage any further than has already been done if I were you.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:10 AM   #10
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by recxjake
Agreed.

Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)
McCain will win NH
Fred will win S. Carolina
Rudy will win Michigan
Rudy will win Nevada
Rudy will win Florida

Feb 5- ???
I think your hard-on for Rudy is skewing your view....Rudy has to do SOMETHING early in the primary season (Michigan is his best shot, IMO...and I don't like his chances there.) If his "only" win going into FL is Nevada....he's toast. Romney will win NH, even if McCain will make it close. Romney gone by NH is wishful thinking, IMO.

FWIW, Fred has to exceed expectations to have a prayer. A strong finish in Iowa, a surprise win in SC (over Huck) could put it together for him....but he'd need momentum to do well on Feb 5th, and even I'm only cautiously optimistic about his chances at this point.

My point is, Rudy can't flop until Florida....without significant loss in his present standing, IMO.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:14 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by recxjake
Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)
You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:27 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.
He's just praying Romney doesn't win NH so he doesn't lose our bet
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:33 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.
Wrong... Romney had 3 offices now, 85 paid staffers, and is spending 1.2 million this week on ads in Iowa... if he loses to Huckabee who hasn't spent crap it will be over for Romney.

Romney's team did a terrible job with expectations... they HAVE to win Iowa.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:35 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
I think your hard-on for Rudy is skewing your view....Rudy has to do SOMETHING early in the primary season (Michigan is his best shot, IMO...and I don't like his chances there.) If his "only" win going into FL is Nevada....he's toast. Romney will win NH, even if McCain will make it close. Romney gone by NH is wishful thinking, IMO.

FWIW, Fred has to exceed expectations to have a prayer. A strong finish in Iowa, a surprise win in SC (over Huck) could put it together for him....but he'd need momentum to do well on Feb 5th, and even I'm only cautiously optimistic about his chances at this point.

My point is, Rudy can't flop until Florida....without significant loss in his present standing, IMO.
Early in the Primany season in Florida... jan 29.

If Rudy can lose all the earlier states, and still win Florida, that creates a clean slate going into Feb 5... where Rudy will clean house.
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Old 12-19-2007, 08:35 AM   #15
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Huck will probably win Iowa
Romney will win NH
Huck will win SC...

after that - Michigan and Florida freak at the possibility of a Huckabee candidacy and vote Mitt - then Romney goes on a roll and wins the nomination.
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