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Old 12-28-2007, 12:57 PM  
Coogs Coogs is offline
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Today's draft watch games include Matt Ryan...

December 28, 2007:

Boston College vs Michigan State; Champs Sports Bowl; 5 PM et; ESPN… A pretty good case can be made that this afternoon’s Champs Sports Bowl match-up between Boston College and Michigan State has as much talent for the 2008 draft as any contest on the early bowl schedule. BC QB Matt Ryan (#12, 6-5, 235), for example, has been one of the major rising stars of the upcoming draft class; indeed, there are teams around the league that would make the Ryan the first player off the board at the position ahead of the likes o Louisville’s Brian Brohm and Andre’ Woodson of Kentucky. And Ryan could very well be joined in this Year’s opening round by rugged OT Gosder Cherilus (#77, 6-6, 320) and CB DeJuan Tribble (#27, 5-9, 190), although the latter won’t play because of an injury. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ senior class also has plenty of depth including the RB duo of Andre Callender (#32, 5-10, 205) and L.V. Whitworth (#30, 5-11, 222), All-America FS Jamie Silva (#44, 5-11, 205), DE Nick Larkin (#57, 6-3, 255), MLB Jolonn Dunbar (#40, 6-0, 225) and WR Kevin Challenger (#84, 5-9, 185).

Michigan State could also have an impact on the early going at the 2008 draft if junior WR Devin Thomas (#5, 6-1, 215) who doesn’t get that much in the way of national pub, but has been as productive as any receiver in the country this fall. Indeed, Thomas, who runs in the 4.50 range for the 40, caught 76 passes for 1,200 yards this fall and averaged a healthy 28.1 yards per KO returns. The Spartans also have one o college football’s most versatile players in TE Kellen Davis (#80, 6-5, 255) who also plays along the defensive line. MSU also features a big offensive line including OT Pete Clifford (#75, 6-6, 320), OG Mike Gyetvai (#66, 6-6, 310) and C John Masters (#54, 6-3, 285) who combine to clear the road for RBs Javon Ringer (#23, 5-9, 205), an explosive junior pile driving Jehuu Caulcrick (#30, 5-11, 255). Meanwhile, the Spartans defense isn’t as strong as the offense and won’t be helped by the act that star DE Jonal St. Dic won’t play because of academics, although steady MLB Kaleb Thornhill (#41, 6-0, 240), DT Ogemdi Nwagbuo (#99, 6-3, 290), DE Ervin Baldwin (#51, 6-2, 270), and safeties Nehemiah Warrick (#3, 6-1, 210), Travis Key (#13, 5-10, 185) and junior Otis Wiley (#21, 6-1, 210) are solid second-tier types.

Houston vs Texas Christian; Texas Bowl, 8 PM ET; NFL Network… If speed is the name of the game, then pro scouts will be tuned when Houston plays TCU in the Texas Bowl as the Cougars feature two of the fastest players in the country as both WR Donnie Avery (#2, 5-10, 190) and RB Anthony Aldridge (#22, 5-9, 175) run close to 4.3 for the 40. And both have translated that speed into terrific productivity on the field. Avery, who doubles as an outstanding KO return man who averaged over 28 yards a return this fall, for example, had 81 catches this season for over 1,300 yards. For his part, Aldridge, who is smallish by current NFL standards, had over 2,000 yards in total offense this season including 1,600 yards on the ground and another 400 plus on 41 receptions; Aldridge also scored 19 times this season. Meawnhile, Avery combines with rangy WR Jeron Harvey (#9, 6-5, 215) to give the Cougars one of the better 1-2 punches at the position in college football. Other Cougars to watch include OG Jeff Akeroyd (#77, 6-3, 295), junior DE Phillip Hunt (#53, 6-2, 250), LBs Brendan Pahula (#3, 6-2, 240) and Trent Allen (#41, 6-1, 245) and safety Rocky Schwartz (#20, 5-10, 200).

The player under the microscope in the Texas Bowl though, will be TCU DE Tommy Blake (#97, 6-2, 255). Blake came into the season rated as one of the top pass-rushers in the country, but ended up sitting out much of the year dealing with some personal issues. If on his game, though, Blake combines with fellow DE Chase Ortiz (#93, 6-2, 255) to give the Horned Frogs a dangerous outside pass rush. TCU also has a pretty good KR in SS Brian Bonner (#6, 5-10, 200), while FS David Roach (#27, 6-1, 215) and OLB David Hawthorne (#46, 5-11, 225) are solid. And if the offense stalls, the horned Frogs have one o the country’s most accurate PKs in Chris Manfredini (#44, 5-9, 165).

Maryland vs Oregon State; Emerald Bowl; 8:30 PM ET; ESPN… Which team wins this year’s Emerald Bowl may come down to who wins the head-to-head battle between star Oregon State RB Yvenson Bernard (#26, 5-9, 205), a slasher with over 3,700 career rushing yards, and Maryland junior MLB Erin Henderson (#1, 6-2, 236), the more athletic younger brother of Vikings’ LB E.J. Henderson. Bernard runs behind a huge offensive line anchored by OGs Roy Schuening (#67, 6-3, 320) and junior Jeremy Perry (#62, 6-3, 315) who was considered the top player at the position prior to the season but played little because of a leg injury. The Beavers also have a very experienced defensive front sevens which starts al seniors including DEs Dorian Smith (#93, 6-3, 260) and Jeff Van Ostrow (49, 6-3, 265) and LBs Derrick Doggett (#45, 6-3, 210), Alan Darlin (#46, 6-0, 255) and Joey Larocque (#44, 6-1, 220). For good measure, Oregon State also has one of the better kickers in the nation in PK Alex Serna (#13, 5-8, 170).

If LB Henderson decides to stay in school for the 2008 season, the Terps’ best prospect for the upcoming draft should be emerging DT Dre Moore (#92, 6-4, 315), a rugged run stuffer with enough quickness to post 6.5 sacks this season. The Terps will also feature one of college football’s better 1-2 senior punches at RB in Lance Ball (#44, 5-9, 225) and Keon Lattimore (#21, 5-10, 225), while TE Joey Haynos (#880, 6-7, 260) is a decent blocker and improving receiver. Meanwhile, veteran OG Andrew Crummey (#63, 6-4, 305) is a solid interior blocker. The most intriguing Maryland prospect, though, may ultimately be redshirt sophomore WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (#8, 6-1, 205) who is still learning the nuances of the position, but is a former track star who may very well be the fastest player in college football.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:10 PM   #181
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McNair is and McNabb has become injury prone...Garcia is too...

A guy like Leinart going back to college has been injured 1 time in 6 years. Campbell has had 1 injury, these guys don't remotely compare to Croyle. Croyle has been injured what 5 or 6 times in 6 years?

You can't rule out college that goes into what makes someone injury prone. If a guy gets hurt once no, or has one injury plagued season, no. If you continually get hurt season in and season out, you are injury prone.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:11 PM   #182
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Ryan is definately a 1st round QB in any draft. Had he been drafted out of the 2005 or 2006 class, I truly believe he'd be taken behind Russell, Quinn, Young, Leinart, and Cutler.

Is he the best QB prospect to come out of the last 5 years, or even the last 2 or 3, no.

But he's going to be the best QB to come out of the draft for the next couple of seasons. He's really a solid pro-prospect, and if the Chiefs were so inclined to take a QB high in the draft, this would be the year to do it.

Todd Boeckman looks to be the best pro-prospect going into next season if that tells you anything. Now I'm not knocking Boeckman, he's been a very solid QB for OSU this season, but he's far less talented or polished than Ryan is.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:13 PM   #183
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It's nice to wanna believe in Brodie Croyle but to say "oh college doesn't count!" when the college game isn't as fast or as brutal as the NFL game and he couldn't even last there is pretty funny.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:17 PM   #184
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I'm truly not a proponent of taking a QB in the first round, but if the organization feels so inclined, then Ryan is the guy to take.

I'd be much happier drafting an OT or DT. I'd take Sedrick Ellis, Dorsey, or Long(pending bowl performace and combine) over Ryan.

That being said, if he ignites some sort of spark under the Chiefs' collective asses, and we take him, I suppose I won't be too upset.

Cherilius and Baker may still be around in the early 2nd, I doubt Baker will, but it's a possibility.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:18 PM   #185
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecca
McNair is and McNabb has become injury prone...Garcia is too...

A guy like Leinart going back to college has been injured 1 time in 6 years. Campbell has had 1 injury, these guys don't remotely compare to Croyle. Croyle has been injured what 5 or 6 times in 6 years?

You can't rule out college that goes into what makes someone injury prone. If a guy gets hurt once no, or has one injury plagued season, no. If you continually get hurt season in and season out, you are injury prone.
So, using Leinart as an example....

If he were to miss significant time in the next 2-3 seasons, he'd be labeled as injury prone.

College would have had nothing to do with it.

Brett Favre had an injury history in college and had 30 inches of his intestines removed. We all know where the story goes from there.....

Bottom line is, it doesn't matter if they were injured in college or not. Missing time in the NFL is missing time. Period.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:23 PM   #186
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Brett Favre has never once missed an NFL start however....Croyle already has...

When you say benefit of the doubt, to me guys like Leinart get it because this is the first time he's ever gotten injured. When Croyle gets hurt you just expect it because he always does.

Every single Brodie Croyle scouting report said he needed to gain weight and show he was durable because at this point his injury history is a major concern. That he'd most likely be a backup if he couldn't fix those things...

So far he is the same size and is showing he isn't durable.

You give the benefit of the doubt to guys who generally don't get injured, not the guys who get hurt all the time.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:30 PM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecca
You know what you should do...

You should pull up the list of the QB's that have won or even made the Superbowl and look at how many of them were 1st round picks....

For a position that "historically busts" there's a reason when teams repeatedly draft them high...just go look at those numbers the percentage of QB's that make the bowl being first rounders is staggering.
Here's all the Super Bowl winning QBs:

Bart Starr 17th round
Joe Namath 1st round
Len Dawson 1st round (3rd team)
Unitas/Morrall (Unitas 9th round, 2nd team/Morrall 1st round, 6th team)
Roger Staubach 10th round
Bob Griese 1st round
Terry Bradshaw 1st round
Ken Stabler 2nd round
Jim Plunkett 1st round (3rd team)
Joe Montana 3rd round
Joe Theismann 4th round (sort of 2nd team -- Miami drafted him, he then played in Canada a few years)
Jim Harbaugh 1st round
Doug Williams 1st round (2nd team)
Phil Simms 1st round
Jeff Hostetler 3rd round
Mark Rypien 6th round
Troy Aikman 1st round
Steve Young 1st round (2nd team)
Brett Favre 2nd round (2nd team)
John Elway 1st round
Kurt Warner FA
Trent Dilfer 1st round (2nd team)
Tom Brady 6th round
Brad Johnson 9th round (3rd team)
Ben Roethlisberger 1st round
Peyton Manning 1st round


Looks like 15 of the 27 were 1st round picks.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:31 PM   #188
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If you do it for the losing teams, the number gets even more staggering.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:31 PM   #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siberian khatru


Looks like 15 of the 27 were 1st round picks.
What about the losing QB's?

If you have the time and energy, I'm just curious.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:33 PM   #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecca
That's a rather ridiculous statement, I guess no QB is ever worth a high pick unless he's Peyton Manning in your world.
Go back to 1990 for Super Bowl winning QB's. Unless they were 1st overall picks, they usually haven't been 1st rounders.

1990 - Hostetler - 3rd round
1991 - Rypien - 6th round
1992, 1993 - Aikman - 1st overall
1994 - Steve Young - 1st pick overall from USFL supp draft
1995 - Aikman - 1st overall
1996 - Favre - 2nd round
1997, 1998 - Elway - 1st overall
1999 - Warner - undrafted
2000 - Dilfer - 1st round
2001 - Brady - 6th round
2002 - Brad Johnson - 9th round
2003, 2004 - Brady - 6th round
2005 - Roethlisberger - 1st round
2006 - Manning - 1st overall

Dilfer was a bust. No way he was worth a 1st rounder. So in the last 17 years, you either draft your Super Bowl QB first overall, or get him later.

Except for Roethlisberger. If you think Matt Ryan is as good as Roethlisberger, take him. But I don't see it.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:35 PM   #191
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The Packers in theory used a 1st rounder on Favre because that was what they traded for him which at the time was the same as using one on a QB.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:40 PM   #192
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Quote:
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Most of us here are willing to give Brodie an actual season to see if he can develop into something rather than gamble with our first round pick on a position that historically doesn't pan out.
This is a ridiculous statement. 15 first round QB's have won 23 Super Bowls:

Ben Rothlisberger
Bob Greise
Doug Williams
Earl Morrall
Jim McMahon
Jim Plunkett
Joe Namath
John Elway
Lenny Dawson
Peyton Manning
Phil Simms
Steve Young
Terry Bradshaw
Trent Dilfer
Troy Aikman

Two third round QB's have won 5 Super Bowls:

Joe Montana
Jeff Hostetler

Considering the odds, the Chiefs are far more likely to win a Super Bowl with a first round QB than a third round draft choice.

Croyle was a third round draft choice for one reason: Injury prone. He's continuing that trend in the NFL.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:53 PM   #193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud
This is a ridiculous statement. 15 first round QB's have won 23 Super Bowls:

...
Ok, now look at all of the first round QB's in those drafts that were out of the league within five seasons. Without looking, I would guess that less than 50% actually have worked out. Doesn't look like such a ridiculous statement when you look at the whole picture.

My argument wasn't that first round QB's don't ever amount to anything. My argument was that the majority of them don't work out.
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Old 12-29-2007, 01:55 PM   #194
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Really if you do that for other rounds the numbers increase even more......for the 1 Tom Brady that worked out from the 2nd day there are a 100 guys that didn't.
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Old 12-29-2007, 02:21 PM   #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shaneo69
Go back to 1990 for Super Bowl winning QB's. Unless they were 1st overall picks, they usually haven't been 1st rounders.

1990 - Hostetler - 3rd round
1991 - Rypien - 6th round
1992, 1993 - Aikman - 1st overall
1994 - Steve Young - 1st pick overall from USFL supp draft
1995 - Aikman - 1st overall
1996 - Favre - 2nd round
1997, 1998 - Elway - 1st overall
1999 - Warner - undrafted
2000 - Dilfer - 1st round
2001 - Brady - 6th round
2002 - Brad Johnson - 9th round
2003, 2004 - Brady - 6th round
2005 - Roethlisberger - 1st round
2006 - Manning - 1st overall
Then look at the losing QB's since 1990:

1991 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1992 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1993 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1994 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1995 - Stan Humphries (6th round - traded to SD)
1996 - Neil O'Donnell (3rd round)
1997 - Drew Bledsoe (1st overall)
1998 - Brett Favre (2nd round - traded for a 1st)
1999 - Chris Chandler (3rd round)
2000 - Steve McNair (1st round)
2001 - Kerry Collings (1st round)
2002 - Kurt Warner (undrafted)
2003 - Rich Gannon (9th round)
2004 - Jake Delhomme (undrafted)
2005 - Donovan McNabb (1st round)
2006 - Matt Hasellbeck (traded for a 1st round)
2007 - Rex Grossman (1st round)

So again, it looks like the best bet is to have a first round QB, just to get to the Super Bowl.
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