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Old 01-01-2008, 11:35 PM  
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Republican Nomination: Down to Huckabee-McCain-Thompson

The Democratic nomination is much less complex, so I'll begin here:

As the original Thompson-pimp here, I still think he has a shot....but it's an outside/darkhorse possibility.

That said, two days from now....we will know the outcome of Iowa. Depending on that, N.H. and S.C. will be the most important to the national picture.

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee will fight it out for 1 and 2...but the real battle is for 3rd. Who will emerge as the "challenger".....the "contender?" It looks to be either McCain or Thompson....so....

New Hampshire: One of Fred's mistakes was writing off NH entirely; he'll pay for it (maybe even finishing behind "moon unit" candidate Paul.) McCain will battle Romney for an inside track to unseat Huckabee for the nomination. I'm convinced Giuliani will flop after Iowa, if he does manage to finish first or second---that will almost guarantee a Republican battle into March, which is something I don't expect. Whoever wins will need impressive follow-up showings in Nevada and South Carolina to stay alive. If McCain wins, Romney could be on life-support---especially going into South Carolina, even if he were to win Nevada.

South Carolina: Fred's last stand. If he can survive Iowa by finishing third, and NOT have Huckabee or Romney take-off in NH....he can become relevant as a legitimate option, by finishing strong in S.C. FTR, the same is true for McCain. If McCain takes NH and....then....does well in SC, he'll become the new 'front-runner.' At that point Fred would likely throw his support behind McCain, which would catapult him to the nomination IMO. Or vice-versa....if Thompson wins SC, then McCain will withdraw and support Fred....which puts him in a good position to defeat Huckabee or Romney for the nomination.

I honestly think, at this point, it will come down to SC. Whoever emerges in the best shape there....will be able to attack Giuliani's "Waterloo" in Florida and beyond....and win the nomination.

JMHO, FTR.

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Old 01-01-2008, 11:44 PM   #2
irishjayhawk irishjayhawk is offline
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As long as Huckster doesn't see the light of day, I can live with the other two.

Though, Thompson looks like the Emperor from Star Wars. :P
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Old 01-01-2008, 11:58 PM   #3
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Rudy, Romney and Fred all have lost ground because McCain is making a come back.

Fred's only chance was if McCain dropped out a month or two ago. He didn't and has regained his status as the media darling. Fred had that but sucked so bad that he pissed away his chance early.

Now that McCain is surging, Fred has zero chance at the nomination. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see the GOP establishment (ie, neo-cons, and party hard liners) move to McCain as the best available option after NH.

He's the most electable in the general election, IMO. By a lot.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:04 AM   #4
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Pretty fluid right now, but I'm still thinking that Romney wins it.

Hard to see Fred getting back into the race. The media is loving on McCain again because he's basically a Democrat. Thompson could have had an angle, with Rudy and McCain sinking and Fred charging ahead, but Huckabee caught the social conservative wave and the media is going to prop McCain up as long as they can as the contrarian candidate.

Ultimately, people won't vote for McCain like they didn't last time, and I see him as more unelectable these days after the immigration debacle.

I'm not thrilled about Romney or Huckabee but I don't think anyone else is in the race really.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:06 AM   #5
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RP has a better shot at the nomination than Thompson. Seriously.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:11 AM   #6
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what about ron paul?

he could be an option...

well, maby not...
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:14 AM   #7
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silock
RP has a better shot at the nomination than Thompson. Seriously.
Anyone who honestly thinks that doesn't understand how political parties in this country nominate candidates. I'd bore you with the details, but I haven't the time or desire other than to say.....Jerry Brown. Paul is a Republican version of Jerry Brown IMHO. So, you are just wrong, IMHO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by go bowe
what about ron paul?

he could be an option...

well, maby not...
Paul has no chance IMHO.

His "best case" scenario is to pull a John Anderson/Ross Perot/Ralph Nader type duplication....which, of course, would hand the election to the democrats.

Which, I think, is part of the allure to many of his supporters in the first place....
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:20 AM   #8
Silock Silock is offline
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Oh, I fully understand how they do it, Mr. Kotter. That's why I know that Thompson doesn't stand a chance of getting it, no matter how much you want it to happen personally.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:23 AM   #9
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silock
Oh, I fully understand how they do it, Mr. Kotter. That's why I know that Thompson doesn't stand a chance of getting it, no matter how much you want it to happen personally.
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:26 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.
In this race, McCain is the "darkhorse". Thompson is the "deadhorse". One that you, sir, are beating into the ground.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:26 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

His "best case" scenario is to pull a John Anderson/Ross Perot/Ralph Nader type duplication....which, of course, would hand the election to the democrats.

Which, I think, is part of the allure to many of his supporters in the first place....
No, what draws most of his supporters to him is that he's not a Republicrat. All of the Republicans and the Democrats are the same candidate. They are all dirty, slimey, filthy, and contemptuous politicians. Paul supporters want a change from THAT.

Remember, the two-party system is just a one-party system in disguise. Either way, you're gonna get a status-quo, same-shit-different-day politician up there in the White House using the same bullshit rhetoric that the guy before him used.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:29 AM   #12
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR
No, what draws most of his supporters to him is that he's not a Republicrat. All of the Republicans and the Democrats are the same candidate. They are all dirty, slimey, filthy, and contemptuous politicians. Paul supporters want a change from THAT.

Remember, the two-party system is just a one-party system in disguise. Either way, you're gonna get a status-quo, same-shit-different-day politician up there in the White House using the same bullshit rhetoric that the guy before him used.
That you and other Paul supporters would say or think that a Hillary Presidency would be the same as a McCain Presidency, or a Obama Presidency would be the same as a Huckabee Presidency....exposes the folly of your position, IMHO.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:30 AM   #13
irishjayhawk irishjayhawk is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.
Remove references to Paul, specifically, and you have outlined a major flaw in our entire system.

Sad really.
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Old 01-02-2008, 12:30 AM   #14
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ
In this race, McCain is the "darkhorse". Thompson is the "deadhorse". One that you, sir, are beating into the ground.
Who did YOU support last year, this time? Heh.

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Old 01-02-2008, 12:31 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irishjayhawk
Remove references to Paul, specifically, and you have outlined a major flaw in our entire system.

Sad really.
Flaw or not, it is what it is. And until it's changed, it "is" reality.
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