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Old 01-03-2008, 03:42 PM  
jAZ jAZ is offline
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MSNBC: Ken Melman "Dem turnout in Iowa could be 3 - 1 over GOP turnout"

That was Chuck Todd's paraphrase of Ken Melman's fear/prediction.

According to Pat Robertson, (and I tend to agree) if that's true, that's REALLY bad news for the GOP in the general election. Iowa would be Blue in '08.
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:00 PM   #2
Cochise Cochise is offline
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I think it's generally always that way at the Iowa caucuses, isn't it?
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:05 PM   #3
Jenson71 Jenson71 is offline
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I'd put all my money in Iowa being blue in 2008. Bush just narrowly won in 2004 - by less than 1% iirc and we've mostly been blue the last few elections. Kerry wasn't appealing enough, maybe too rich, and I think there's an issue of changing horses in midstream that came up.

In 2006, we elect a new Dem. governor and three Dem. representatives (out of 5). The two Republicans were incumbents.
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:11 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
I think it's generally always that way at the Iowa caucuses, isn't it?
That's not at all the sense I got.

The panel (Matthews, Robertson and Todd) were all pretty amazed by what they estimated as a possible 2-1 turnout.

Then Todd explained what Melman had told him... that he was concerned about a 3-1 turnout.

They surely didn't think either figure was typical.
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:24 PM   #5
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They were also talking about the serious concern that this swing in turnout would translate into a significant shift in actual party identification.
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:50 PM   #6
trndobrd trndobrd is offline
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I would be more concerned if it was a primary and those were the turnout figures. Caucuses are strange animals, and with the exception of Romney, none of the Republicans have really worked on a GOTV machine.



Gratitus cheap shot: Besides lot of the Republicans, minus Paul supporters, of course,have jobs and families.
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:52 PM   #7
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Low turnout favors Paul...
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Old 01-03-2008, 04:56 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
I think it's generally always that way at the Iowa caucuses, isn't it?
Yes it is. And Iowa has been blue for quite a while now.

Hillary could change that though.
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Old 01-03-2008, 05:25 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
I think it's generally always that way at the Iowa caucuses, isn't it?
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that isn't usually how it is. The democratic system is more complicated and more of a pain in the ass than the Republican one.
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Old 01-03-2008, 05:36 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ
...
According to Pat Robertson, (and I tend to agree) if that's true, that's REALLY bad news for the GOP in the general election. Iowa would be Blue in '08.
Pat Robertson was on MSNBC talking about the election?
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:37 PM   #11
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Oops... Buchanan.
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:39 PM   #12
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MSNBC just said that the Dem Caucas had 82% more attendees than even in 2004.

Don't know what the GOP turnout was, but they didn't have a contested primary in 2004 so it'll be hard to compare %'s directly.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:28 AM   #13
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http://www.groupnewsblog.net/2008/01/iowa-wrap-up.html

Iowa Wrap Up

Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
356,000

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)

Think about that.
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