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Old 01-03-2008, 08:23 PM  
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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"IF" Romney continues decline, and loses NH...

WHO benefits, and receives the lion's share of his "support?"

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Old 01-03-2008, 08:25 PM   #2
recxjake recxjake is offline
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I'll be the first to say that Rudy had a bad night... but this is playing right into their strategy. McCain will win NH, Fred could still win S. Carolina. Rudy is still strong in Florida.

We still have debates... this thing is far from over.
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:27 PM   #3
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I say, McCain or Thompson....and, since I've previously stated "fatal flaws" for Hillary/Romney/Obama (bitch/Mormon/black) for the "general"....I'll add another potentially fatal flaw...72 yrs of age, for McCain. Fair or not, it will be an issue....which leaves "lucid" Republicans who wanted to support a now-inviable Romney....as having to choose between McCain and Thompson.

I'll bet more go Thompson, and his support "could" double.
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:31 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by recxjake
I'll be the first to say that Rudy had a bad night... but this is playing right into their strategy. McCain will win NH, Fred could still win S. Carolina. Rudy is still strong in Florida.

We still have debates... this thing is far from over.
Fred's #3 helps Rudy as much as Huck's #1, IMO.

As you said before, "no clear leader" is Rudy's last gasp.

Fred dropping out would help McCain. That doesn't happen now... not yet anyway.
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:40 PM   #5
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romney is not going to quit just because he didn't win in ia...

he's still rich enough to finance his own campaign as long as he wants...
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:42 PM   #6
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go bowe
romney is not going to quit just because he didn't win in ia...

he's still rich enough to finance his own campaign as long as he wants...
If he loses NH, and fails to have strong showings elsewhere, including a "win" somewhere......the Mormon will go home. It's simple.
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Old 01-04-2008, 06:02 AM   #7
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I think Mr. Kotter has a personal issue with Mormons.
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Old 01-04-2008, 06:31 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noonan
Everyone said Mike Huckabee was a big dope to leave Iowa Wednesday to fly to L.A. to be on Jay Leno, but did you see him on that thing? He got off a perfect line on why he's doing well against Romney: "People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off." The studio audience loved him. And you know, in Iowa they watch "The Tonight Show" too.

Mr. Huckabee likes to head-fake people into thinking he's Gomer Pyle, but he's more like the barefoot boy of the green room. He's more James Carville than Jim Nabors.

What we have learned about Mr. Huckabee the past few months is that he's an ace entertainer with a warm, witty and compelling persona. He won with no money and little formal organization, with an evangelical network, with a folksy manner, and with the best guileless pose in modern politics. From the mail I have received the past month after criticizing him in this space, I would say his great power, the thing really pushing his supporters, is that they believe that what ails America and threatens its continued existence is not economic collapse or jihad, it is our culture.

They have been bruised and offended by the rigid, almost militant secularism and multiculturalism of the public schools; they reject those schools' squalor, in all senses of the word. They believe in God and family and America. They are populist: They don't admire billionaire CEOs, they admire husbands with two jobs who hold the family together for the sake of the kids; they don't need to see the triumph of supply-side thinking, they want to see that suffering woman down the street get the help she needs.

They believe that Mr. Huckabee, the minister who speaks their language, shares, down to the bone, their anxieties, concerns and beliefs. They fear that the other Republican candidates are caught up in a million smaller issues--taxing, spending, the global economy, Sunnis and Shia--and missing the central issue: again, our culture. They are populists who vote Republican, and as I have read their letters, I have felt nothing but respect.

But there are two problems. One is that while the presidency, as an office, can actually make real changes in the areas of economic and foreign policy, the federal government has a limited ability to change the culture of America. That is something conservatives used to know. Second, I'm sorry to say it is my sense that Mr. Huckabee is not so much leading a movement as riding a wave. One senses he brilliantly discerned and pursued an underserved part of the voting demographic, and went for it. Clever fellow. To me, the tipoff was "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?"
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Old 01-04-2008, 06:38 AM   #9
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
I think Mr. Kotter has a personal issue with Mormons.
I think a majority of Americans have issues with electing a Mormon. Fair, or not...it's true (even if most won't publicly admit it.)
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:18 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
I think a majority of Americans have issues with electing a Mormon. Fair, or not...it's true (even if most won't publicly admit it.)
I'll take that as a "yes, I do".
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:21 AM   #11
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
I'll take that as a "yes, I do".
No, not at all. If the choice on the Democratic side is Hillary, or Edwards...I'll happily cast my vote for Romney.

Pragmatists, and policy oriented folks will understand that....even if it will send ideologically oriented folks heads spinning.



EDIT: I'll also add a PM I just received from an esteemed and former poster who makes another perceptive point about Romney....although it's a criticism one could level against many pols, it IS one to which Romney is particularly vulnerable.

Quote:
"Being a Mormon has nothing to do with it, appearing to be a pathological flip-flopper that says whatever the highest bidder wants DOES."
Although, I guess....according to you at least, perhaps the second part of the PM applies to me.

Heh.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:40 AM   #12
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I don't see how Thompson dropping out would help McCain. If the MO primary were today I'd vote for Thompson, but it'll be a cold day before I vote for McCain. I don't hate the guy, but as a candidate he is not a match for me at all.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:16 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
I don't see how Thompson dropping out would help McCain. If the MO primary were today I'd vote for Thompson, but it'll be a cold day before I vote for McCain. I don't hate the guy, but as a candidate he is not a match for me at all.
It won't be a movement "en masse".....but it would disproportionately benefit McCain, I think. If Romney shows some resiliency in NH, some would migrate to him.

In the end though, two of the three (Romney, McCain, and Thompson) will drop out. The longer they stay in, the more likely it becomes for Huckabee to win. The sooner that faction (factions?) of the party can unite, the more likely they will be able to defeat Huckabee's bid for the top spot. I think Huck would be a good choice for VP, but as "President" he makes a Republican victory in November much more difficult IMHO.
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