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Old 03-03-2008, 01:26 PM  
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Prediction: Hillary wins popular votes in Texas AND Ohio (and RI)...

... but loses the delegate count in Texas thanks to the primacaucus format and the weighted delegate system that favors his strong areas.

But even though she doesn't really close the gap on delegates, and might actually slide further behind... she stays in the race for another month plus (through PA).

I hope I'm wrong.

Last edited by jAZ; 03-03-2008 at 01:31 PM..
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:31 PM   #2
HolmeZz HolmeZz is offline
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Dunno about the popular vote, but Chuck Todd already did a bunch of different guesstimates on how the delegates will play out. He said the best Hillary could hope for is a net of 3 total delegates out of all 4 states. I think she's shot when it comes to having a shot at making the pledge delegate count even relatively close by the time every state has voted.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:34 PM   #3
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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I was about to start a prediction thread myself but you beat me to it.

Anyway for some reason I feel the momentum going back to Clinton and I agree she is going to win TX, OH, and RI.

I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:35 PM   #4
HolmeZz HolmeZz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.


Obama's support has yet to dip in any state he's gone and campaigned in.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:38 PM   #5
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HolmeZz View Post


Obama's support has yet to dip in any state he's gone and campaigned in.
I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:39 PM   #6
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.
I am not saying this at all.

I think she's prolonging his ultimate win.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:40 PM   #7
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
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I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:40 PM   #8
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?
She was up 21 points 2 weeks ago.

It's now a dead heat.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:42 PM   #9
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
I am not saying this at all.

I think she's prolonging his ultimate win.
I understand what you are saying but I was just hoping with 11 straight wins he would crush her in Ohio and Texas and if he loses both that is not a good sign.

just my imo
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:43 PM   #10
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.
First, there are 4 states... Vermont is the other one.

And no one is predicting him to win RI at all.

He could win Texas and there is a lone poll (outlier, IMO) showing him ahead in OH.

I think he might expand his lead in delegates even if he doesn't win the popular vote in Texas... as long as it's close in OH.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:43 PM   #11
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i don't think she'll win, probably no need for preemptive damage control about the results
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:44 PM   #12
HolmeZz HolmeZz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?
You seem to be feeding into the Clinton campaign rhetoric. Illinois isn't a big state? Virginia? Wisconsin? Georgia? Missouri? South Carolina? Minnesota?

Obama's going to win most of the states remaining after tomorrow even if Hillary stays in the race; states like North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, ect. It's going to be virtually impossible for Hillary to make the pledged delegate count close enough that it can be discounted.

It's been painfully evident that in every state they each campaign in, Clinton's base of support shrinks and Obama's base grows. He's basically having to overcome 20%+ deficits in each state and he's managing to draw even, or like in Wisconsin, completely blow her doors off.

It's quite clear who the better candidate is and I think it's why you hear people like Dodd and Richardson basically echoing that fact; it's a sign most of the Democratic establishment realizes it.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:46 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I understand what you are saying but I was just hoping with 11 straight wins he would crush her in Ohio and Texas and if he loses both that is not a good sign.

just my imo
I think this Canadian NAFTA issue is going to hurt Obama in OH. And her "Red Phone" ad in TX was mocked by most people in the media, but I think it might work on the ground.

But for Hillary to win the whole thing, she's going to need to take over the delegate lead. And she really can't do that mathmatically. So she'd need the superdelegates to break with the popular will. And I don't think that they will do that. I'm not even sure they *want* to do that any longer.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:47 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
First, there are 4 states... Vermont is the other one.

And no one is predicting him to win RI at all.

He could win Texas and there is a lone poll (outlier, IMO) showing him ahead in OH.

I think he might expand his lead in delegates even if he doesn't win the popular vote in Texas... as long as it's close in OH.
I'm nobody? Ok, I say he wins 4 states tomorrow.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:50 PM   #15
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
I'm nobody? Ok, I say he wins 4 states tomorrow.
No one who isn't just spouting off non-sense.
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