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Old 03-24-2008, 10:12 AM  
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Climate news you can warm to...

Climate facts to warm to


Christopher Pearson | March 22, 2008

CATASTROPHIC predictions of global warming usually conjure with the notion of a tipping point, a point of no return.
Last Monday - on ABC Radio National, of all places - there was a tipping point of a different kind in the debate on climate change. It was a remarkable interview involving the co-host of Counterpoint, Michael Duffy and Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist and senior fellow of Melbourne-based think tank the Institute of Public Affairs. Anyone in public life who takes a position on the greenhouse gas hypothesis will ignore it at their peril.

Duffy asked Marohasy: "Is the Earth stillwarming?"

She replied: "No, actually, there has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you'd expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years."

Duffy: "Is this a matter of any controversy?"

Marohasy: "Actually, no. The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century. So he recognises that in this century, over the past eight years, temperatures have plateaued ... This is not what you'd expect, as I said, because if carbon dioxide is driving temperature then you'd expect that, given carbon dioxide levels have been continuing to increase, temperatures should be going up ... So (it's) very unexpected, not something that's being discussed. It should be being discussed, though, because it's very significant."

Duffy: "It's not only that it's not discussed. We never hear it, do we? Whenever there's any sort of weather event that can be linked into the global warming orthodoxy, it's put on the front page. But a fact like that, which is that global warming stopped a decade ago, is virtually never reported, which is extraordinary."

Duffy then turned to the question of how the proponents of the greenhouse gas hypothesis deal with data that doesn't support their case. "People like Kevin Rudd and Ross Garnaut are speaking as though the Earth is still warming at an alarming rate, but what is the argument from the other side? What would people associated with the IPCC say to explain the (temperature) dip?"

Marohasy: "Well, the head of the IPCC has suggested natural factors are compensating for the increasing carbon dioxide levels and I guess, to some extent, that's what sceptics have been saying for some time: that, yes, carbon dioxide will give you some warming but there are a whole lot of other factors that may compensate or that may augment the warming from elevated levels of carbon dioxide.

"There's been a lot of talk about the impact of the sun and that maybe we're going to go through or are entering a period of less intense solar activity and this could be contributing to the current cooling."

Duffy: "Can you tell us about NASA's Aqua satellite, because I understand some of the data we're now getting is quite important in our understanding of how climate works?"

Marohasy: "That's right. The satellite was only launched in 2002 and it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on cloud formation and water vapour. What all the climate models suggest is that, when you've got warming from additional carbon dioxide, this will result in increased water vapour, so you're going to get a positive feedback. That's what the models have been indicating. What this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite ... (is) actually showing is just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather processes are compensating, so they're actually limiting the greenhouse effect and you're getting a negative rather than a positive feedback."

Duffy: "The climate is actually, in one way anyway, more robust than was assumed in the climate models?"

Marohasy: "That's right ... These findings actually aren't being disputed by the meteorological community. They're having trouble digesting the findings, they're acknowledging the findings, they're acknowledging that the data from NASA's Aqua satellite is not how the models predict, and I think they're about to recognise that the models really do need to be overhauled and that when they are overhauled they will probably show greatly reduced future warming projected as a consequence of carbon dioxide."

Duffy: "From what you're saying, it sounds like the implications of this could beconsiderable ..."

Marohasy: "That's right, very much so. The policy implications are enormous. The meteorological community at the moment is really just coming to terms with the output from this NASA Aqua satellite and (climate scientist) Roy Spencer's interpretation of them. His work is published, his work is accepted, but I think people are still in shock at this point."

If Marohasy is anywhere near right about the impending collapse of the global warming paradigm, life will suddenly become a whole lot more interesting.

A great many founts of authority, from the Royal Society to the UN, most heads of government along with countless captains of industry, learned professors, commentators and journalists will be profoundly embarrassed. Let us hope it is a prolonged and chastening experience.

With catastrophe off the agenda, for most people the fog of millennial gloom will lift, at least until attention turns to the prospect of the next ice age. Among the better educated, the sceptical cast of mind that is the basis of empiricism will once again be back in fashion. The delusion that by recycling and catching public transport we can help save the planet will quickly come to be seen for the childish nonsense it was all along.

The poorest Indians and Chinese will be left in peace to work their way towards prosperity, without being badgered about the size of their carbon footprint, a concept that for most of us will soon be one with Nineveh and Tyre, clean forgotten in six months.

The scores of town planners in Australia building empires out of regulating what can and can't be built on low-lying shorelines will have to come to terms with the fact inundation no longer impends and find something more plausible to do. The same is true of the bureaucrats planning to accommodate "climate refugees".

Penny Wong's climate mega-portfolio will suddenly be as ephemeral as the ministries for the year 2000 that state governments used to entrust to junior ministers. Malcolm Turnbull will have to reinvent himself at vast speed as a climate change sceptic and the Prime Minister will have to kiss goodbye what he likes to call the great moral issue and policy challenge of our times.

It will all be vastly entertaining to watch.

THE Age published an essay with an environmental theme by Ian McEwan on March 8 and its stablemate, The Sydney Morning Herald, also carried a slightly longer version of the same piece.

The Australian's Cut & Paste column two days later reproduced a telling paragraph from the Herald's version, which suggested that McEwan was a climate change sceptic and which The Age had excised. He was expanding on the proposition that "we need not only reliable data but their expression in the rigorous use of statistics".

What The Age decided to spare its readers was the following: "Well-meaning intellectual movements, from communism to post-structuralism, have a poor history of absorbing inconvenient fact or challenges to fundamental precepts. We should not ignore or suppress good indicators on the environment, though they have become extremely rare now. It is tempting to the layman to embrace with enthusiasm the latest bleak scenario because it fits the darkness of our soul, the prevailing cultural pessimism. The imagination, as Wallace Stevens once said, is always at the end of an era. But we should be asking, or expecting others to ask, for the provenance of the data, the assumptions fed into the computer model, the response of the peer review community, and so on. Pessimism is intellectually delicious, even thrilling, but the matter before us is too serious for mere self-pleasuring. It would be self-defeating if the environmental movement degenerated into a religion of gloomy faith. (Faith, ungrounded certainty, is no virtue.)"

The missing sentences do not appear anywhere else in The Age's version of the essay. The attribution reads: "Copyright Ian McEwan 2008" and there is no acknowledgment of editing by The Age.

Why did the paper decide to offer its readers McEwan lite? Was he, I wonder, consulted on the matter? And isn't there a nice irony that The Age chose to delete the line about ideologues not being very good at "absorbing inconvenient fact"?
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Old 03-24-2008, 10:27 AM   #2
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Insert tiptap's pedantic run-on paragraphs that nobody reads here.
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Old 03-24-2008, 10:50 AM   #3
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:26 PM   #4
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silence is deafening.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:50 PM   #5
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I was wondering when this was going to show up.

I saw it on another board. Here's what I wrote then.

Some meaningful context...

Christopher Pearson is self described as "I'm an old-fashioned radical libertarian".

Jennifer Marohasy is a paid lobbist who's job is to lobby against environmental regulations and for free-markets for the Institute of Public Affairs.

"The Institute of Public Affairs is a right-wing, corporate funded think tank ... (that's) key policy positions include advocacy for privatisation, deregulation, ... and denial of most significant environmental problems, including climate change."

So what you are reading is the position right-wing, corporate funded think tank as told to you by an anti-envirnomental regulation lobbist and reported to you by a self described as "radical libertarian".

Context is always valuable in these sort of threads.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:52 PM   #6
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I also posted this article...

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/22/215837/90
Objection: Climate scientists never talk about water vapor -- the strongest greenhouse gas -- because it undermines their CO2 theory.

Answer: Not a single climate model or climate textbook fails to discuss the role water vapor plays in the greenhouse effect. It is the strongest greenhouse gas, contributing 36% to 66% to the overall effect for vapor alone, 66% to 85% when you include clouds. It is however, not considered a climate "forcing," because the amount of H2O in the air basically varies as a function of temperature.


If you artificially increase the level of H2O in the air, it rains out immediately (in terms of climate response times). Similarly, due to the abundance of ocean on the earth's surface, if you somehow removed all the water from the air, it would quickly be replaced through evaporation.

This has the interesting consequence that if you could somehow instantly remove all CO2 from the atmosphere, the temperature would begin to drop, causing precipitation to remove H2O from the air, causing even further drops, in a feedback effect that would not end until no liquid water was left, only ice sheets and frozen oceans.

CO2 put into the air by burning fossil fuels, on the other hand, stays in the atmosphere for centuries before natural sinks finish absorbing the excess. This is plenty of time to have substantial and long-lasting effects on the climate system. As the climate warms in response to CO2, humidity rises and increased H2O concentration acts as a significant amplifier of CO2-driven warming, basically doubling or tripling its effect.

An article from RealClimate -- "Water vapor: feedback or forcing?" -- has a good discussion of this subject.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:53 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bootlegged View Post
silence is deafening.
What's the point? It's not like anyone in this thread would be interested in the facts about the issue unless handed them by God himself.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:53 PM   #8
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Where's the link?

It's certainly an interesting read but I want to see a source. If it's from bigoilrules.com it's going to become less interesting.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:54 PM   #9
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Yes, sure, as long as something you repeat over and over again can be called a fact, whether it's true or not.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:55 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
I was wondering when this was going to show up.

I saw it on another board. Here's what I wrote then.

Some meaningful context...

Christopher Pearson is self described as "I'm an old-fashioned radical libertarian".

Jennifer Marohasy is a paid lobbist who's job is to lobby against environmental regulations and for free-markets for the Institute of Public Affairs.

"The Institute of Public Affairs is a right-wing, corporate funded think tank ... (that's) key policy positions include advocacy for privatisation, deregulation, ... and denial of most significant environmental problems, including climate change."

So what you are reading is the position right-wing, corporate funded think tank as told to you by an anti-envirnomental regulation lobbist and reported to you by a self described as "radical libertarian".

Context is always valuable in these sort of threads.
For clarity, you are asserting that these people are suspect due to their potential motivation, yes?
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:55 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock View Post
Yes, sure, as long as something you repeat over and over again can be called a fact, whether it's true or not.
That appears to be the gist of it, yes.
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Old 03-24-2008, 12:56 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jiveturkey View Post
Where's the link?

It's certainly an interesting read but I want to see a source. If it's from bigoilrules.com it's going to become less interesting.
It's a real publication... but see my 2nd to last post.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...9-7583,00.html
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Old 03-24-2008, 01:03 PM   #13
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Has the average global temperature “plateaued over the last decade” as claimed in the article?
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Old 03-24-2008, 01:04 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
For clarity, you are asserting that these people are suspect due to their potential motivation, yes?
They are quite credible when assessing what they are. They are a paid policy lobbying organization. They are not remotely suspect in that context.

But their objective isn't understanding reality as the scientific method demands. It's defending their belief system against attack, no matter what reality might be.


Understand that and you can understand this article and all of it's flaws.
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Old 03-24-2008, 01:10 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Has the average global temperature “plateaued over the last decade” as claimed in the article?
2007 tied 1998 as the hotest year in history.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/...arth_temp.html
2007 Was Tied as Earth's Second-Warmest Year

01.16.08

Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have found that 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth’s second warmest year in a century.

"It is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean temperature," said Hansen. "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."

The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.
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