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Old 03-26-2008, 06:11 PM  
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Breaking 2: Hillary hurt more by Wright story than Obama

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archi...26/821438.aspx

(Note from TV:

Positive/Negative ratings over the last 2 weeks...
Obama down 2%, Clinton down ~13% IIRC

She's now "unfavorable" among women for the first time

She also lost big on authenticity... and that's before the Bosnia lies came out.)

NBC-WSJ POLL: NEW CLINTON LOWS

Posted: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 6:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: Democrats, 2008, Clinton, Obama, Polls

From NBC's Chuck Todd
As expected, one of the two major Democratic candidates saw a downturn in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, but it's not the candidate that you think. Hillary Clinton is sporting the lowest personal ratings of the campaign. Moreover, her 37% positive rating is the lowest the NBC/WSJ poll has recorded since March 2001, two months after she was elected to the U.S. Senate from New York.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday this week by Hart-McInturff and surveyed 700 registered voters, which gives the poll a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. In addition, we oversampled African-Americans in order to get a more reliable cross-tab on many of the questions we asked in this poll regarding Sen. Barack Obama's speech on race and overall response to last week's Rev. Jeremiah Wright dustup.

On that issue specifically, 32% of folks said he "sufficiently addressed the issue," while 26% of those folks believe he needs to address the Wright controversy further; 31% of voters surveyed did not see the speech or had no opinion. Interestingly, of those voters who said they saw the speech, 47% said Obama sufficiently addressed the Wright issue while 37% said he needs to address it further. Among whites, 45% were satisfied with Obama's explanation, 38% were not; Among blacks, 67% said the speech was sufficient while 25% want him to address it further.

Overall, 55% of voters told us that they were "disturbed" by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright videos that circulated so widely on cable TV and the Internet.

As for the damage this controversy did or didn't do to Obama, it's a mixed bag. Yes, Obama saw some of his numbers go down slightly among certain voting groups, most notably Republicans. But he's still much more competitive with independent voters when matched up against John McCain than Hillary Clinton. And he still sports a net-positive personal rating of 49-32, which is down only slightly from two weeks ago when it was 51-28. Again, the biggest shift in those negative numbers were among Republicans.

On one of the most critical questions we've been tracking for a few months, Obama showed resilience. When asked if the three presidential candidates could be successful in uniting the country if they were elected president, 60% of all voters believed Obama could be successful at doing this, 58% of all voters said McCain could unite the country while only 46% of voters said the same about Clinton. All three candidates saw dips on this issue, by the way. In January, 67% thought Obama could unite the country; 68% thought McCain could do it; and 55% said Clinton would be able to pull it off.

The fact they all three dropped equally in the last three months is a sign that the campaign is becoming more ideological and partisan.

In the head-to-head matchups, there weren't huge shifts in the numbers with Obama and Clinton dead even at 45% in the national Democratic primary matchup (a slight increase for Obama from early March). In the general-election matchups, Obama led McCain by 2 points and McCain led Clinton by 2 points; all margin of error results and nothing to get too excited over.

One thing about these head-to-head matchups: our pollsters found that for the second poll in a row, more than 20% of Clinton and Obama supporters say they would support McCain when he's matched up against the other Democrat. There is clearly some hardening of feelings among some of the most core supporters of both Democrats, though it may be Obama voters, who are more bitter in the long run.

Why? Because among Obama voters, Clinton has a net-negative personal rating (35-43) while Clinton voters have a net-positive view of Obama (50-29). Taken together, this appears to be evidence that Obama, intially, should have the easier time uniting the party than Clinton.

Considering the doom-and-gloom some predicted for Obama with regard to the Wright controversy, the overall tenor of the electorate appears to still be favorable for him. He's mortal, but he's survived... for now. It's not clear whether he'd be this resilient if another controversy exploded as big as Wright, but it appears that voters are giving him the benefit of doubt. There's lots of evidence inside these numbers that voters still would like to know more about Obama, and that is both an opportunity and a potential obstacle.
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Old 03-26-2008, 06:14 PM   #2
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
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Old 03-26-2008, 06:14 PM   #3
jAZ jAZ is offline
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According to Chuck Todd, getting below the "will you vote for the other candidate or McCain if you candidate loses" question, he said that Obama supporters have a "net negative opinion of Clinton... but Clinton supporters have a "net positive opinion of Obama".

Their poll also had it at 20% vs 20% (choosing McCain over the other Dem) for both camps. No difference on theirs.
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Old 03-26-2008, 08:13 PM   #4
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I'd have to see more polling that supports this poll's results to believe it. It's like that poll that was released yesterday that showed Obama up in NC by a huge amount. It's just too different than what other polls are showing to believe it without additional polls showing similar numbers.
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Old 03-26-2008, 08:16 PM   #5
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she is hurting the whole party
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Old 03-26-2008, 08:24 PM   #6
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she is hurting the whole party
This shit slinging by both of them is only helping McCain, unfortunately for you.
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Old 03-26-2008, 09:00 PM   #7
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This shit slinging by both of them is only helping McCain, unfortunately for the country.
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:27 AM   #8
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At a family event tonight that I attended the Hillary bashing was in full-throat. (I am the only conservative in my family, so this was fun for me.) Most of them were Hillary supporters at one time, but she has pissed them all off so much that it is kinda weird. I actually would have defended her a little were it not for the Bosnia debacle, which is beyond comprehension to me. Strangely enough the only ones who did defend her at all were the younger crowd, really touting Obama's perceived "inexperience", but that was half-hearted and got beaten down by the Hillary bashers.
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:32 AM   #9
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Tim Russert talks about the poll results.

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Old 03-27-2008, 12:45 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by memyselfI View Post
I'd have to see more polling that supports this poll's results to believe it. It's like that poll that was released yesterday that showed Obama up in NC by a huge amount. It's just too different than what other polls are showing to believe it without additional polls showing similar numbers.

Why would anyone need to see more polling? I could have told you this stuff days ago without even needing to see a poll. The only people who care about the Wright story are right wingers and frothy Clinton supporters. Go out and talk to average joes... What they got from this story was that Obama made a marvelous speech on race after his pastor said some crazy stuff (or something).

The Wright story has no legs. People don't hold people accountable for the stuff their pastor says at the pulpit.
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:48 AM   #11
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Old 03-27-2008, 12:49 PM   #12
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There's a slightly different take on the poll and the impact to Obama from NBC (link below) that shows he's really lost some of his shine amongst Republicans and Independents and among those that knew anything about the Wright controversy there were now some real reservations about whether or not there's enough known about him. Also, since only half of the respondants were aware of the issue the full impact may not yet have been felt.

It's good that he got over this hump according to the polls, but I wouldn't fool yourself into thinking he's not going to get beat up on this as long as he retains ties to Wright. I spoke to a couple of Obama supporters today who, like me, can't understand why he didn't distance himself in the same way he moved away from Farrakhan. Politically, I'd love to hear from JAZ or other Obama supporters how they feel about his decision to hate the sin but love the sinner and how that strategy was a good idea.

I hear a lot of rationalization (it was only a few sermons, I wasn't there, he's like an "uncle", no one agrees with everything their pastor says, blah, blah, blah) but few defenses of the strategy and how it's the best way to go to put the issue behind him.

Anyway, here's the story about the poll: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archi...27/825776.aspx
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Old 03-27-2008, 06:30 PM   #13
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Obama is not going to lose his ability to speak to people and win their favor. That is why he is defeating a presumed nominee and that is why he will overcome all of the background noise raised by the people trying to cut him down.

Anybody who wants to give Obama a hard time, always does it when he is not around. In my neighborhood, that is called talking behind someone's back, and it is not as respectable as someone who is good at standing up for himself and speaking for himself.
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Old 03-28-2008, 09:03 AM   #14
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Obama is not going to lose his ability to speak to people and win their favor. That is why he is defeating a presumed nominee and that is why he will overcome all of the background noise raised by the people trying to cut him down.

Anybody who wants to give Obama a hard time, always does it when he is not around. In my neighborhood, that is called talking behind someone's back, and it is not as respectable as someone who is good at standing up for himself and speaking for himself.
Kind of like the way everyone who criticizes Dick Cheney does it behind his back, huh? It's a shame that Dick Cheney and Barack Obama aren't destined to face each other in a debate. I'd love to see that.
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