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Old 04-03-2008, 01:32 PM  
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7327393.stm
'No Sun link' to climate change
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

Scientists have produced further compelling evidence showing that modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity.

The research contradicts a favoured theory of climate "sceptics", that changes in cosmic rays coming to Earth determine cloudiness and temperature.

The idea is that variations in solar activity affect cosmic ray intensity.

But Lancaster University scientists found there has been no significant link between them in the last 20 years.

Presenting their findings in the Institute of Physics journal, Environmental Research Letters, the UK team explain that they used three different ways to search for a correlation, and found virtually none.

This is the latest piece of evidence which at the very least puts the cosmic ray theory, developed by Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark at the Danish National Space Center (DNSC), under very heavy pressure.

Dr Svensmark's idea formed a centrepiece of the controversial documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle.

Wrong path

"We started on this game because of Svensmark's work," said Terry Sloan from Lancaster University.

"If he is right, then we are going down the wrong path of taking all these expensive measures to cut carbon emissions; if he is right, we could carry on with carbon emissions as normal."

Cosmic rays are deflected away from Earth by our planet's magnetic field, and by the solar wind - streams of electrically charged particles coming from the Sun.

The Svensmark hypothesis is that when the solar wind is weak, more cosmic rays penetrate to Earth.

That creates more charged particles in the atmosphere, which in turn induces more clouds to form, cooling the climate.

The planet warms up when the Sun's output is strong.

Professor Sloan's team investigated the link by looking for periods in time and for places on the Earth which had documented weak or strong cosmic ray arrivals, and seeing if that affected the cloudiness observed in those locations or at those times.

"For example; sometimes the Sun 'burps' - it throws out a huge burst of charged particles," he explained to BBC News.

"So we looked to see whether cloud cover increased after one of these bursts of rays from the Sun; we saw nothing."

Over the course of one of the Sun's natural 11-year cycles, there was a weak correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover - but cosmic ray variability could at the very most explain only a quarter of the changes in cloudiness.

And for the following cycle, no correlation was found.

Limited effect

Dr Svensmark himself was unimpressed by the findings.

"Terry Sloan has simply failed to understand how cosmic rays work on clouds," he told BBC News.

"He predicts much bigger effects than we would do, as between the equator and the poles, and after solar eruptions; then, because he doesn't see those big effects, he says our story is wrong, when in fact we have plenty of evidence to support it."

But another researcher who has worked on the issue, Giles Harrison from Reading University, said the work was important "as it provides an upper limit on the cosmic ray-cloud effect in global satellite cloud data".





Dr Harrison's own research, looking at the UK only, has also suggested that cosmic rays make only a very weak contribution to cloud formation.

The Svensmark hypothesis has also been attacked in recent months by Mike Lockwood from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory.

He showed that over the last 20 years, solar activity has been slowly declining, which should have led to a drop in global temperatures if the theory was correct.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its vast assessment of climate science last year, concluded that since temperatures began rising rapidly in the 1970s, the contribution of humankind's greenhouse gas emissions has outweighed that of solar variability by a factor of about 13 to one.

According to Terry Sloan, the message coming from his research is simple.

"We tried to corroborate Svensmark's hypothesis, but we could not; as far as we can see, he has no reason to challenge the IPCC - the IPCC has got it right.

"So we had better carry on trying to cut carbon emissions."

Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
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Old 04-03-2008, 01:45 PM   #2
Radar Chief Radar Chief is offline
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Hmmm, weird.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...s-warming.html
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Old 04-03-2008, 01:48 PM   #3
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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The earth is cooling, not warming.
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Old 04-03-2008, 01:50 PM   #4
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I guess we missed the being doom and gloom Ice age predicted in the 1970s.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:14 PM   #5
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Did you even read that article beyond the headline?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:15 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
Did you even read that article beyond the headline?
Of course, did you?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:25 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Of course, did you?
Then why are you confused? Most of your article supports the one in the thread starter. Read page 2.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...s-warming.html
"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." [...]

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations." [...]

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. [...]

"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said. [...]

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars. [...]

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:28 PM   #8
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
Then why are you confused? Most of your article supports the one in the thread starter. Read page 2.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...s-warming.html
"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." [...]

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations." [...]

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. [...]

"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said. [...]

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars. [...]

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.
Is this really how you spend your days?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:34 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Bootlegged View Post
The earth is cooling, not warming.


If that is true why aren't the Ice Caps increasing? Why would cooling lead to them melting/shrinking?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:35 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
Then why are you confused?
Where did I post that I was “confused”? I didn’t, I just posted that it was weird.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:35 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StcChief View Post
I guess we missed the being doom and gloom Ice age predicted in the 1970s.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/clim...-cooling_N.htm

There were 44 articles predicting warming (based mainly on rising CO 2), 20 articles that were neutral on climate and ONLY 7 articles predicting cooling in the 1970's for future temperatures. That would be 10% that suggested cooling as opposed to 60% predicting warming.

So if you want to continue to lie about the doom and gloom of the 70s ice age predictions, we will point out how wrong you are.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:37 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Adept Havelock View Post


If that is true why aren't the Ice Caps increasing? Why would cooling lead to them melting?
The same way "global warming" is supposed to lead to the next ice age?
What, you don’t watch movies?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adept Havelock View Post


If that is true why aren't the Ice Caps increasing? Why would cooling lead to them melting/shrinking?

Did you get that from a movie or book?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:41 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adept Havelock View Post


If that is true why aren't the Ice Caps increasing? Why would cooling lead to them melting/shrinking?
The DENIERS claims about the falling temperatures is from the record high temperature average of 1993. Except that when one does a real linear regression from 1993 to now you actually see a statistically insignificant rise in temperatures. This argument has now moved to stating that CO 2 levels have risen over this period but the temperature rise hasn't kept pace. This is despite that CO 2 temperature effects always lag concentration increases. That is the meaning of the FORCE effect. It leads the temperature effect.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:42 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
The DENIERS claims about the falling temperatures is from the record high temperature average of 1993. Except that when one does a real linear regression from 1993 to now you actually see a statistically insignificant rise in temperatures. This argument has now moved to stating that CO 2 levels have risen over this period but the temperature rise hasn't kept pace. This is despite that CO 2 temperature effects always lag concentration increases. That is the meaning of the FORCE effect. It leads the temperature effect.
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