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Old 11-01-2008, 07:15 AM  
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
Hugo Hussein Castro Obama.
 
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Friday poll: McCain 48 - Osama 47

The racists are coming out of the woods..
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Old 11-01-2008, 07:36 AM   #2
Portlantis Portlantis is offline
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From fivethirtyeight.com.

Quote:
Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.
If, say, Rassmussen shows McCain with a one-point lead tomorrow, I'll crap my pants. But I'm not going to lose any sleep over one day of polling from a pollster who's known for being unreliable.
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Old 11-01-2008, 07:40 AM   #3
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Old 11-01-2008, 07:49 AM   #4
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
Hugo Hussein Castro Obama.
 
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Obamatons are in panic..


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Old 11-01-2008, 07:53 AM   #5
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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Zogby = the devil

29 year old Daily Kos pollster (538) = da genious

Got it.
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Old 11-01-2008, 07:53 AM   #6
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"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:11 AM   #7
Portlantis Portlantis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange View Post
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.
Which may be true. But the last Zogby poll showed Obama up by 7. Do you honestly believe anything short of him eating a live baby on stage would cause him to lose that much support in just one day?
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:17 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bootlegged View Post
Zogby = the devil

29 year old Daily Kos pollster (538) = da genious

Got it.
He's not a pollster. He's a statistical analyst with a track record of success in predicting the primaries and the inventor of the most accurate prediction system in baseball, which has been borne out in many cases, my favorite one probably being this:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/03...-feelings.html

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/09...lings-iii.html

Nope, Nate doesn't know shit:

Quote:
The Best

1. PECOTA, Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted wins: 88
On pace for: 97.4

Well, this was a pretty good call, wasn't it. According to the metric I've come up with to compare these projections, this was the second best one over the last two years, behind only PECOTA's 2007 White Sox projection. Tampa Bay has surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations; even if you just look at their Pythagorean record, of 87-66, they're on pace to beat PECOTA's projection by four games.
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:19 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange View Post
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.
Um, no? Kerry was down huge and gained a lot of ground late to make it close in 2004.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre...chart3way.html
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:34 AM   #10
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What does it say about McCain that he's only one point ahead of Osama bin Laden? I assume that's who bootlicker is refering to.
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:49 AM   #11
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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The actual number is 49.1 for Obama and 44.1 for McCain

Week Four
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
10-31
10-30
10-29
10-28
10-27
Obama
49.1%
50.1%
50.2%
49.1%
49.0%
McCain
44.1%
43.1%
43.3%
44.4%
44.7%
Others/Not sure
6.8%
6.8%
6.5%
6.5%
6.3%
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:51 AM   #12
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Oh and Rasmussen has Obama back up by 5 51-46 with McCain losing a point
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Old 11-01-2008, 08:52 AM   #13
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange View Post
"Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

Maybe fivethirtyeight.com needs to study history a bit. The polls have broken late for the Republicans at least the last four elections. "Election day looming" seems to be reason enough.
Yeah, I remember that big push late for George HW Bush that brought him up to 37%.
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Old 11-01-2008, 09:04 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post


The actual number is 49.1 for Obama and 44.1 for McCain

Week Four
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
10-31
10-30
10-29
10-28
10-27
Obama
49.1%
50.1%
50.2%
49.1%
49.0%
McCain
44.1%
43.1%
43.3%
44.4%
44.7%
Others/Not sure
6.8%
6.8%
6.5%
6.5%
6.3%
B-b-b-b-but the ONE DAY SAMPLE...

I wonder how Drudge must feel now, realizing that blogs have rendered him wholly irrelevant.
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Old 11-01-2008, 09:58 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Portlantis View Post
Which may be true. But the last Zogby poll showed Obama up by 7. Do you honestly believe anything short of him eating a live baby on stage would cause him to lose that much support in just one day?
If the masses of Americans actually knew his abortion policies, it would be tantamount to just that.
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