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Old 11-02-2008, 10:06 AM  
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MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data

Rick C. Hodgin
TG Daily
Friday, Oct 31, 2008

Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature - and not the direct result of manís contributions.

Methane - powerful greenhouse gas

The two lead authors of a paper published in this weekís Geophysical Review Letters, Matthew Rigby and Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry in MITís Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, state that as a result of the increase, several million tons of new methane is present in the atmosphere.

Methane accounts for roughly one-fifth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, though its effect is 25x greater than that of carbon dioxide. Its impact on global warming comes from the reflection of the sunís light back to the Earth (like a greenhouse). Methane is typically broken down in the atmosphere by the free radical hydroxyl (OH), a naturally occuring process. This atmospheric cleanser has been shown to adjust itself up and down periodically, and is believed to account for the lack of increases in methane levels in Earthís atmosphere over the past ten years despite notable simultaneous increases by man.

More study

Prinn has said, ďThe next step will be to study [these changes] using a very high-resolution atmospheric circulation model and additional measurements from other networks. The key thing is to better determine the relative roles of increased methane emission versus [an increase] in the rate of removal. Apparently we have a mix of the two, but we want to know how much of each [is responsible for the overall increase].Ē

The primary concern now is that 2007 is long over. While the collected data from that time period reflects a simultaneous world-wide increase in emissions, observing atmospheric trends now is like observing the healthy horse running through the paddock a year after it overcame some mystery illness. Where does one even begin? And how relevant are any of the data findings at this late date? Looking back over 2007 data as it was captured may prove as ineffective if the data does not support the high resolution details such a study requires.

One thing does seem very clear, however; science is only beginning to get a handle on the big picture of global warming. Findings like these tell us itís too early to know for sure if manís impact is affecting things at the political cry of ďalarming rates.Ē We may simply be going through another natural cycle of warmer and colder times - one thatís been observed through a scientific analysis of the Earth to be naturally occuring for hundreds of thousands of years.

Project funding

Rigby and Prinn carried out this study with help from researchers at Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Georgia Institute of Technology, University of Bristol and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Methane gas measurements came from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), which is supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Australian CSIRO network.

http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/cont...39973-113.html
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Old 11-02-2008, 06:52 PM   #2
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Old 11-02-2008, 08:49 PM   #3
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That headline is bogus. Here's the article from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/envir...49T0AD20081030

A couple key quotes:

Quote:
Methane, the primary component of natural gas, has more than doubled in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times, but stayed largely stable over the last decade or so before rising in 2007, researchers said on Wednesday.

This stability led scientists to believe that the emissions of methane, from natural sources like cows, sheep and wetlands, as well as from human activities like coal and gas production, were balanced by the destruction of methane in the atmosphere.
Quote:
Methane is destroyed by reaction with an atmospheric "cleanser" called the hydroxyl free radical, or OH. The researchers theorized that the rise in methane might be due in part to a decline in OH.

The researchers said it is too soon to tell whether the one-year rise in the amount of atmospheric methane is the start of an upward trend or a short-lived anomaly.
The new research does nothing to discredit the "global warming theory", especially since methane levels have been stable for a decade. If all global warming gasses had been stable for the past decade, we wouldn't be talking about global warming.

The research only states that methane levels unexpectedly went up in one year, and that the increase was probably not directly caused by man made pollution.
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:08 PM   #4
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Blog: Science
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM



World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year.Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.

Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.


Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news.

Update 2/27: The graph for HadCRUT (above), as well as the linked graphs for RSS and UAH are generated month-to-month; the temperature declines span a full 12 months of data. The linked GISS graph was graphed for the months of January only, due to a limitation in the plotting program. Anthony Watts, who kindly provided the graphics, otherwise has no connection with the column. The views and comments are those of the author only.

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature...ticle10866.htm
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:32 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
The new research does nothing to discredit the "global warming theory", especially since methane levels have been stable for a decade. If all global warming gasses had been stable for the past decade, we wouldn't be talking about global warming.

The research only states that methane levels unexpectedly went up in one year, and that the increase was probably not directly caused by man made pollution.
very true.
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Old 11-02-2008, 10:03 PM   #6
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Just a few things:

1) No one questions that the Sun is one of only two sources of heat for the Earth. The internal Earth's heat is 2nd to the dominant heat source of the Sun for the surface.
2) But it has been known for 100 years and verified time after time that the flow of energy from the Sun and the Earth, treated as black body thermodynamic interactions, do not account for the temperatures on earth. That interaction only gets Earth's temperature to around minus 40 degrees (C or F).
3) Energy and temperature are not the same. And it is the Energy balance that is the fundamental in making determinations. Temperature is subject to constraints such as change of state.
4) If there hadn't been a HUGE lost of Polar Ice, then the small drop (yes small drop the statement about 100 year comparison is flat out wrong) the last year might be an encouraging indication of change afoot. Instead it is just a short term reflection of a large part of the energy balance going to change the state of ice to water.
5) Please post the record cold for any state (the whole state) for any month for the last 12 years. I for a while posted monthly reports of just that kind of data. And there are no record coldest entries for any state. (I do state that this year did see temperatures in some states hit cold temperatures that at least could be tabulated as Much Below Normal levels not seen for any of the previous 12 years, but not record cold.)
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Old 11-02-2008, 11:36 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KILLER_CLOWN View Post
Blog: Science
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature...ticle10866.htm
Of course, the original source of the numbers came out and disputed DailyTech's conclusions.

The global warming skeptics accuse the other side of making far reaching claims based on dubious science, but in this thread alone you've posted two early scientific studies based on short time frames and made far reaching claims.
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Old 11-02-2008, 11:58 PM   #8
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Global warming is junk science and has been proven wrong, the temperature trend is downward but i guess that is to be ignored.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:02 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
That headline is bogus. Here's the article from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/envir...49T0AD20081030

A couple key quotes:





The new research does nothing to discredit the "global warming theory", especially since methane levels have been stable for a decade. If all global warming gasses had been stable for the past decade, we wouldn't be talking about global warming.

The research only states that methane levels unexpectedly went up in one year, and that the increase was probably not directly caused by man made pollution.

I choose to believe the guys at MIT over you. No offense.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:27 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Mizzou_8541 View Post
I choose to believe the guys at MIT over you. No offense.
Me too. Here's the MIT news release. Point me to the conclusions there that state they are "baffled by global warming" and that their study "contradicts scientific data". You won't find it.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/methane-tt1029.html

In fact, they say that the only reason they released the initial findings so quickly was because of the "important consequences of global warming."

No offense taken, by the way.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:34 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by KILLER_CLOWN View Post
Global warming is junk science and has been proven wrong, the temperature trend is downward but i guess that is to be ignored.
One year isn't a trend. And, let's not be so dense to think that only global warming gasses effect the year-to-year fluctuations in temperatures.

And I'd be wary about saying anything is junk science and has been proven wrong based on a blog.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:41 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
One year isn't a trend. And, let's not be so dense to think that only global warming gasses effect the year-to-year fluctuations in temperatures.

And I'd be wary about saying anything is junk science and has been proven wrong based on a blog.
Ha, i'm basing it on overwhelming information not "a blog".
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:44 AM   #13
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Evidence of sunspot involvement in climate change compelling

Published: 31 Oct 08 - 0:00
Over the last few years, the evidence that sunspots on our sun are directly related to climate change on earth has been steadily increasing.
I explained the exact proposed mechanism in some detail previously. Great work in this field is being carried out by Dr Henrik Svensmark and coworkers in Denmark and elsewhere.

Briefly, the mechanism is that cosmic rays impact on the earth from deep space. These cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere and lead to the formation of cloud cover. The cosmic rays nucleate sites in the atmosphere, from which clouds form from the natural water vapour.

If one puts a spoonful of coffee powder into a cup of microwaved water, the water forms bubbles of foam on the coffee grains. This is basically the same principle as the cosmic rays forming clouds in the atmosphere.

The earth’s magnetic field, which acts as a shielding, is altered by the sun’s activity, which, in turn, is indicated by means of the number of sunspots. As the earth’s magnetic shield varies, so the cloud cover varies. Few sunspots mean a weaker earth shield, which means more cosmic rays, which mean more clouds, which mean a cooling earth.

The correlation for this effect, going back thousands of years, is good, remarkably so. Scientifically, this looks believable, and it is consistent with the theory and observation.

In contrast, the argument that man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) is causing warming does not fit the facts at all. Firstly, there was no indus- trial CO2 produced in vast quanti- ties when the Roman Warming period occurred, or when the Medieval Warming period occurred. Both are well documented in various archives, such as the historical and archaeological.

But there is more – global warming is extremely complex, and it is really naÔve to believe that a relatively simple theory will explain it satisfactorily. It is far too simple just to say: CO2 traps heat and, therefore, more CO2 means more heat, and so we have global warming.

As the makers of heat-seeking missiles know very well, the CO2 in the atmosphere has ‘windows’ in it. This means that certain ‘heat frequencies’ pass through the atmosphere easily but other frequencies are trapped. It is these windows that the missile uses to hunt its prey. As a consequence, there are ‘frequency bands’ related to the CO2 cover of the earth. In various ‘bands’, the infrared passes through easily, or not so easily.

Further, CO2 can trap incoming heat from space and outgoing heat being radiated from the earth. The frequency bands linked to the CO2 also become saturated – they cannot just keep sucking up more and more heat. Essentially, this CO2 argument is very complex.

Over the last century, the temperature changes in our planet’s atmosphere, let alone ground and sea, just do not match the atmospheric CO2 concentration at all. This is cause for warning bells that, perhaps, this whole CO2 argument is not correct.

In comparison, the cosmic ray and sunspot information match well. However, as I have said, this whole atmospheric temperature issue is very complex, and no capable scientist in the field is going to say otherwise.

Right now, we have been experi- encing a rather long period of sunspot inactivity on our sun, some 200 days plus. This has happened before.

Formal sun- spot data collection started in 1749 and has been monitored ever since. But long before that date, sunspots were known and informal measurements were taken. It is, therefore, known that the Little Ice Age, which took place from the midseventeenth century to the eighteenth century, was preceded and paralleled by a period of some 50 years with a virtual absence of sunspots, according to informal records.

In more recent times, we have had relatively long periods without sunspots. This year, we passed the mark of 200 days without sunspots, which is unusual. In fact, the sun has been blanker now than in any other year since 1954, when it was spotless for 241 days, and this year is now being called the sun’s quietest year of the space age.

The sun was also very quiet in 1913, so runs of 200-plus spotless days are rare, but not that rare. As I have already said, the global warming and cooling issue is complex, and so a run of 200-plus days without sunspots cannot be compared to a 50-year quiet period during the Little Ice Age, but it is cause for some scientific thinking.

Further, a cooling that could be initiated by a lack of sunspots will induce other climatic effects that will either favour warming or cooling. The jury is still out on exactly what happens, but the evidence for sunspot involvement in climate change is just too compelling for it to be brushed aside by those who want to cling to the simplistic idea that man-made CO2 is the only factor.

http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/art...hp?a_id=145646
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:52 AM   #14
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EcoAmerica Poll: Climate skeptics are the majority, not the minority

Watts Up With That?
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2008

Only 18 percent of survey respondents strongly believe that climate change is real, human-caused and harmful.

Yes you read that correctly, it is all in this article on the Nature Conservancy webpage. And that goes along with what was discovered in June this year by the newspapers UK Guardian and Observer, which reported that:

The majority of the British public is still not convinced that climate change is caused by humans - and many others believe scientists are exaggerating the problem…

The Nature Conservancy story citing 18 percent, is citing the American Climate Values Survey (ACVS), conducted by the consulting group EcoAmerica It also found that political party affiliation is the single largest indicator as to whether people see climate change as a threat.

It seems it is all political, as there are some other fascinating tidbits. For example:

Convinced it’s happening: 54 percent of Republicans, 90 percent of Democrats.
Think that weather has gotten more severe: 44 percent of Republicans; 77 percent of Democrats.
Noticed the climate changing: 54 percent of Republicans; 84 percent of Democrats.
Trust Al Gore when he talks about global warming: 22 percent of Republicans; 71 percent of Democrats.
Trust environmentalists who talk about global warming: 38 percent of Republicans; 71 percent of Democrats.
Trust anyone who talks about global warming: 39 percent of Republicans; 75 percent of Democrats.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/2...-the-minority/
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"Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father ... And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity."

"If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." - Thomas Jefferson
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KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 11-03-2008, 12:59 AM   #15
KILLER_CLOWN KILLER_CLOWN is offline
Be HEALED!!!!!!!
 
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Pale(Chloros) ville
Casino cash: $23281
Global Warming? or Global Governance?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...44067427439443
__________________
"Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father ... And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity."

"If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." - Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 27,583
KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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