Home Mail Chat Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > Washington DC and The Holy Land

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-30-2009, 07:28 PM  
eazyb81 eazyb81 is offline
The Illuminati
 
eazyb81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: the road less traveled
Casino cash: $5000
WSJ: Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?


I found this article fascinating, as Schiff is hailed as a quasi-messiah by many people, including posters on here, because of his economic predictions, but when it comes time to put your money where your mouth is, he whiffs.

I've said it before, but the really impressive people are guys like John Paulson, Philip Falcone, etc. They didn't display the arrogance that Schiff did during all of his TV interviews over the last two years, but they crushed it when it came to betting large on their ideas of what was happening to the global economy.

-------
Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?


By SCOTT PATTERSON, JOANNA SLATER and CRAIG KARMIN

Peter Schiff predicted a collapse of the U.S. financial system. The bust-up he didn't foresee was the one that made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008.

Mr. Schiff's Darien, Conn., broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers. Instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into.

Investors open accounts at Euro Pacific to take advantage of Mr. Schiff's investment advice, which generally involves shunning investments in dollars. Individual returns can vary. Some investors may like gold-mining stocks, while others prefer energy-focused stocks.

Most had one thing in common last year: heavy losses. A number of investors said their Euro Pacific portfolios lost 50% or more in 2008, worse than the 38% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index last year. People familiar with the firm say that hardly any securities recommended by Euro Pacific brokers gained ground in 2008.

Investment adviser and author Peter Schiff, still riding high on his prescient call on the collapse of the U.S. housing market, is the subject of more than 3,000 YouTube videos, including one called "Peter Schiff Was Right."




Such losses came as something of a surprise. Mr. Schiff's prescient call for the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the weakening of the financial system helped him gain fame as an economic guru and savvy investor who promised shelter from the financial storm.

In his 2007 book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," he recommends that investors pile into gold, commodities and overseas stocks that spit out steady dividends.

When global markets were soaring, many Euro Pacific investors' accounts experienced strong performance. For several years, investors saw returns in excess of 20% a year as foreign stocks and commodities surged, according to people familiar with the firm.

In 2008, investors nervous about the state of the U.S. economy who were impressed by Mr. Schiff's track record poured money into Euro Pacific, nearly doubling the number of accounts to 16,000. But many did so at the worst time possible, much like investors who piled into Internet stocks as the dot-com bubble peaked.

Mr. Schiff, 45 years old, says the downturn in his strategy is a short-term setback. He argues that it is only a matter of time before the dollar collapses, pressured by massive government bailouts, triggering outsize returns for his investors.

"I think the dollar is going to get destroyed," he says. Investors with the staying power to wait out what he sees as a temporary phase of irrational confidence in the dollar will reap huge rewards, he argues.

Mr. Schiff is still riding high on his housing-market call. This week, he spoke at a global competitiveness conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, alongside former heads of state, prime ministers and American gold-medal swimmer Michael Phelps. He is the subject of more than 3,000 YouTube videos, including one called "Peter Schiff Was Right."

His admirers even created Web sites supporting a possible run for the U.S. Senate in 2010. Mr. Schiff, who was economic adviser to independent presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2008, says he has no plans to run for the Senate but "anything's possible."

Critics say Mr. Schiff's strategy is much riskier and more aggressive than many investors realize. David Yeske, managing director of Yeske Buie, a Vienna, Va., money manager, says Mr. Schiff's investment strategy was a focused bet on a single outcome, rather than risk management for investors looking to protect assets from an economic collapse. "He's a speculator; he thinks he can see the future," says Mr. Yeske, former chairman of the Financial Planning Association. "That's not really risk control."

One of Mr. Schiff's biggest forecasts was that many overseas economies would "decouple" from the U.S., gaining strength even as the American economy struggled. Instead, overseas stock markets plunged as much or more than U.S. stocks in 2008 as the global economy skidded. Prices for commodities also tanked, torpedoing another favorite investment theme of Mr. Schiff's. After last year's losses, his firm has about $845 million in assets.

Early last year, Richard De Gennaro, a retired Harvard University librarian, put $100,000, about 15% of his assets, into a Euro Pacific account that included Canadian Oil Sands Trust, which focuses on crude-oil projects in Canada, and the India Capital Growth Fund, which holds investments in companies that do business in India.

Both investments took big hits in 2008, compounded by the fact that the Canadian dollar and the Indian rupee fell 18% and 19%, respectively, against the U.S. dollar. The 83-year-old retiree's account is now worth about $37,000, a 63% plunge. Mr. Schiff "goes around saying that he was right," says Mr. De Gennaro. "He was right about one thing and wrong about everything else."

Among investors who turned to Mr. Schiff's firm just as his strategy began to falter, Brian Kullberg, a design engineer in Portland, Ore., says he started to worry about the state of the U.S. economy in early 2008. He put $70,000 into a Euro Pacific account, hoping it would benefit as the U.S. economy and the dollar weakened. By late January 2009, his investment had shrunk to about $25,000.

"It's curious," says one longtime client of Mr. Schiff's who works in finance. "His thesis of how things are going to collapse and crumble and fall apart isn't effectively executed in [my] account." The account, which is largely invested in gold, mining and infrastructure stocks from Canada to Australia, was down roughly 35% last year, the client estimates. The Australian dollar weakened 19% against the U.S. dollar in 2008.

Mr. Schiff says one year's poor performance doesn't prove he was wrong. He has admitted in notes to clients that his investment thesis hasn't performed as expected, particularly with respect to the U.S. dollar. But he holds fast to his convictions and has been telling investors to scoop up a number of depressed stocks.

Some clients are inclined to agree. "The decoupling he talked about has not happened," says Barbara Hearst, a clothing entrepreneur who splits her time between Charleston, S.C., and Bridgehampton, N.Y., and has invested with Mr. Schiff since 2000. But "longer term or medium term, I don't discount what Peter says."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123327685671031439.html

Posts: 12,033
eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2009, 09:44 PM   #16
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
BucsPatsNoles
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $70063
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
You're not a very fair individual. Schiff went on TV because he was called out by the WSJ. He got called out by the WSJ because for the last five years he's been predicting this situation in the face of laughter - and now they're looking for a way to humilate him by only painting part of the picture.
That's about the size of it. They gotta take try n' him down with them.
I don't believe for one moment there are other advisors that have pristine records.
No names were supplied I noticed either.
Posts: 105,347
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2009, 09:51 PM   #17
eazyb81 eazyb81 is offline
The Illuminati
 
eazyb81's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: the road less traveled
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
'Er he was invited on. And why not, the Keynesians get on all the time hawing their snake oil.



In this case, he has a right to be arrogant. I showed the video clip of some arrogant advisors in this BB boasting how we weren't in a recession and blah blah blah and saying Schiff was wrong. The guys calling Schiff arrogant just resent looking bad and/or hate that he's against the stimulus aka more of the same that gave us the problem. He's essentially calling them out and they don't like it. Especially when he's passionate about what he says. No one likes be exposed as frauds.
Two wrongs don't make a right. Just because there are arrogant investors/analysts out there doesn't mean Schiff doesn't look silly for being arrogant.

When a guy is constantly on tv trying telling everyone he's right and then gets absolutely bent over in the market, it takes away from his credibility.

You don't see John Paulson, Seth Klarman, Philip Falcone, etc. on tv telling everyone that they're wrong, even though they routinely get massive returns.
Posts: 12,033
eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.eazyb81 would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 11:22 AM   #18
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
Whatever you say. A rally that can't sustain itself is a phony rally. You're arguing semantics. It's really a pointless discussion.
Wrong. A rally that can't sustaing itself is a short-lived rally. No I am not arguing semantics. Rally's and selloff's are not phony. Real money is made or lost, regardless of the time said rally or selloff takes place.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 11:23 AM   #19
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by eazyb81 View Post
Two wrongs don't make a right. Just because there are arrogant investors/analysts out there doesn't mean Schiff doesn't look silly for being arrogant.

When a guy is constantly on tv trying telling everyone he's right and then gets absolutely bent over in the market, it takes away from his credibility.

You don't see John Paulson, Seth Klarman, Philip Falcone, etc. on tv telling everyone that they're wrong, even though they routinely get massive returns.
Schiff was wrong, the market was right. The market is ALWAYS right.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 12:57 PM   #20
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
BucsPatsNoles
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $70063
Quote:
Originally Posted by eazyb81 View Post
Two wrongs don't make a right. Just because there are arrogant investors/analysts out there doesn't mean Schiff doesn't look silly for being arrogant.

When a guy is constantly on tv trying telling everyone he's right and then gets absolutely bent over in the market, it takes away from his credibility.

You don't see John Paulson, Seth Klarman, Philip Falcone, etc. on tv telling everyone that they're wrong, even though they routinely get massive returns.
I don't see that he's doing any wrong by being arrogant. I said he has a right to be arrogant. And that Schiff looks silly is purely subjective.

Oh! And the one's Schiff is calling wrong are wrong. Just calling a spade a spade.
Posts: 105,347
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 02:31 PM   #21
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
I don't see that he's doing any wrong by being arrogant. I said he has a right to be arrogant. And that Schiff looks silly is purely subjective.

Oh! And the one's Schiff is calling wrong are wrong. Just calling a spade a spade.
The quickest way to lose money in the market is to be arrogant enough to tell the market "it" is wrong.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 04:49 PM   #22
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
BucsPatsNoles
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $70063
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
The quickest way to lose money in the market is to be arrogant enough to tell the market "it" is wrong.
'Eh I doubt Schiff said what he said in those terms, being an Austrian ( as am I) as the market is never wrong. Those guys say the market always gets the last word. So I don't know where you got that idea. He just predicted the bust was all.
Posts: 105,347
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 05:39 PM   #23
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
'Eh I doubt Schiff said what he said in those terms, being an Austrian ( as am I) as the market is never wrong. Those guys say the market always gets the last word. So I don't know where you got that idea. He just predicted the bust was all.
I don't give a shit what either of you are. The market is never wrong. You are either on the side of the market or not. Therefore you are either right or wrong.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 05:52 PM   #24
Calcountry Calcountry is offline
Shoot the tube
 
Calcountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Casino cash: $6320
Quote:
Originally Posted by eazyb81 View Post
Which is why savvy investors would stay out of what they didn't completely understand, instead of basically putting all their eggs in the dollar basket.

Every investor has had to deal with Invisible Hand version 2.0, but not many have been crushed as bad as Schiff has. Guys like John Paulson and Philip Falcone saw the housing collapse just like Schiff did, but they did fantastic in 08.
You mean, like the folks that invested with Madoff?
Posts: 27,069
Calcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 05:54 PM   #25
Calcountry Calcountry is offline
Shoot the tube
 
Calcountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Casino cash: $6320
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Dude you are talking out of your ass. There is no such thing as a phony rally. If a stock goes up a $1 it goes up a $1. There is nothing "phony" about it.

People who call rally's or selloff's phony are just makig excuses for being on the wrong side of the trade.
There are oversold, and overbought markets dude.

There are bear traps, dead cat bounces etc.

Small players can't bet on short term movements, which is why I am in cash, gold and bonds.

Thinking seriously about dumping the bonds before inflation eats them up.
Posts: 27,069
Calcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 05:56 PM   #26
Calcountry Calcountry is offline
Shoot the tube
 
Calcountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Casino cash: $6320
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
The quickest way to lose money in the market is to be arrogant enough to tell the market "it" is wrong.
So then, how does the market feel about Obama's presidency and policies so far?

We will see on monday, won't we?
Posts: 27,069
Calcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliCalcountry 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 06:11 PM   #27
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by bunnytrdr View Post
There are oversold, and overbought markets dude.

There are bear traps, dead cat bounces etc.

Small players can't bet on short term movements, which is why I am in cash, gold and bonds.

Thinking seriously about dumping the bonds before inflation eats them up.
I know what kinds of markets there are. I have been and am an active trader and have been for almost 20 years.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 06:11 PM   #28
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $74227
Quote:
Originally Posted by bunnytrdr View Post
So then, how does the market feel about Obama's presidency and policies so far?

We will see on monday, won't we?
Nope. We are short term overbought but we are also looking to break out into a nice really. Remember, most overbought\oversold indicators are at one extreme or the other when trends break out.
Posts: 97,721
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:27 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.