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Old 05-15-2009, 11:33 AM  
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The economy is going deeper down the ****ter

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Old 05-15-2009, 02:02 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
The only problem is... we have a Marxist in the white house.
So much for your effort at thoughtful discussion.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:05 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
... when blood from every orifice is straining out of most of Wall Street, and they are begging for mercy, will a bottom be found.
Why not throw a target number out there instead of talking about a bloodbath begging for mercy.

Or are your stock predictions simply based on your "Marxist in the white house" analsysis.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:09 PM   #18
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So much for your effort at thoughtful discussion.
Why is that off the table? It is my opinion, based on his belive structure, his place of worship, their philosophies, his own words, and more importantly than all of that, his actions. He has nationalized 2 of the auto companies, raped bond holders to the benefit of unions. Has demanded that California spend the bail out money to the benefit of unions, etc. Refused to allow banks to give tarp money back.

The man is governing with a heavy hand, the ends justify the means. The real owners of the wealth are the workers and they deserve the assets of GM more than the bond holder, shareholders or anyone else.

Yeah, that describes a Marxist, "from each according to their ability and to each according to their needs". Free health care to the poor at the expense of the productive "rich". Free education to any who will graduate from a government run High School, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden will guarantee ALL of you will be able to go to college".

And why not? They have need, and the "rich" have the ability. Or so you think.

How is that for an attempt?
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:11 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
Why not throw a target number out there instead of talking about a bloodbath begging for mercy.

Or are your stock predictions simply based on your "Marxist in the white house" analsysis.
Why don't you go **** yourself?
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:14 PM   #20
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THat is all you are about Jaz, you don't like the message, so you attempt to discredit the Messenger. I am sorry if you don't like it, it is my opinion based on all the information that I have at hand, and I am sticking to it. The man gravitates towards a Marxist paradigm. Why does that piss you off so much? Why so butthurt by that? It was clearly accused of him prior to the election, and it didn't stop a multitude of usefull idiots, like yourself, from voting away your birthright to him anyway, so why the butthurt at the mention of my opinions?
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:18 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
I think we are in a bear market with at least one more significant leg down, the previous lows will at least be tested one more time if not smashed through, then, when blood from every orifice is straining out of most of Wall Street, and they are begging for mercy, will a bottom be found. If you think that the stock market is turning to a bull, with the 6 k level as a bottom, then you don't know how stock markets just love run away inflation.

The only reason why it is bumping right now is because a lot of folks are going, "whew the world didn't end, what am I going to do with my cash, get 0% in a CD? wtf? Well, we did that stock market thing for decades and it always worked, dollar cost averaging, yep, that that's a good thing" The only problem is, that is a capitalist paradigm, and we have a Marxist in the white house.
The problem is though everyone is screaming gloom and doom now.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:19 PM   #22
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The problem is though everyone is screaming gloom and doom now.
No, actually, everyone is saying, "the economy is bottoming".
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:33 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Why is that off the table? It is my opinion, based on his belive structure, his place of worship, their philosophies, his own words, and more importantly than all of that, his actions. He has nationalized 2 of the auto companies, raped bond holders to the benefit of unions. Has demanded that California spend the bail out money to the benefit of unions, etc. Refused to allow banks to give tarp money back.

The man is governing with a heavy hand, the ends justify the means. The real owners of the wealth are the workers and they deserve the assets of GM more than the bond holder, shareholders or anyone else.

Yeah, that describes a Marxist, "from each according to their ability and to each according to their needs". Free health care to the poor at the expense of the productive "rich". Free education to any who will graduate from a government run High School, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden will guarantee ALL of you will be able to go to college".

And why not? They have need, and the "rich" have the ability. Or so you think.

How is that for an attempt?
The basis for your previous market analysis was: Obama = Marxist therefore market = bloodbath.

You are entitled to your opinion, but that doesn't make it correct.

And I'm entited to point out that your analysis is rather thin on substance and heavy on political rhetoric.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:35 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Why don't you go **** yourself?
I wouldn't go on record either, because I don't know where it's going. But then again, I also didn't make any bloodbath predictions that I might be called to justify either.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:38 PM   #25
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THat is all you are about Jaz, you don't like the message, so you attempt to discredit the Messenger. I am sorry if you don't like it, it is my opinion based on all the information that I have at hand, and I am sticking to it. The man gravitates towards a Marxist paradigm. Why does that piss you off so much? Why so butthurt by that? It was clearly accused of him prior to the election, and it didn't stop a multitude of usefull idiots, like yourself, from voting away your birthright to him anyway, so why the butthurt at the mention of my opinions?
Hey, you are the one who refused to tell me what a market blood bath and crashing through the floor looks like.

You'd generate more confidence in your opinions if they weren't vague, loud and based on political talking points rather than somewhat specific analysis.

I'm sure you are a great person in real life.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:42 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
I think we are in a bear market with at least one more significant leg down, the previous lows will at least be tested one more time if not smashed through, then, when blood from every orifice is straining out of most of Wall Street, and they are begging for mercy, will a bottom be found. If you think that the stock market is turning to a bull, with the 6 k level as a bottom, then you don't know how stock markets just love run away inflation.

The only reason why it is bumping right now is because a lot of folks are going, "whew the world didn't end, what am I going to do with my cash, get 0% in a CD? wtf? Well, we did that stock market thing for decades and it always worked, dollar cost averaging, yep, that that's a good thing" The only problem is, that is a capitalist paradigm, and we have a Marxist in the white house.
Somewhat agree with Cal. Markets don't bounce off of bottoms and immediately head north. Bottoms are tested at least twice and sometimes 3-4 times. His inflation expectations are a little much in my opinion because we're still getting a good dose of deflation. Inflation is 12-18 months off IMO. Whether it will be run away or not is a different question. This quantitative easing that the fed has been doing makes it really easy for the Fed to withdraw liquidity down the line thus reducing inflation.

As for the recent rally, I think you are seeing more risk appetite for risk so some people are allocating more to equites but there are also quite a few worrisome technical indicators that show this rally isn't healthy. While it has been broad the volume has been light on the big moves up. Heavy volume days were the few selloffs we did see. When you factor in the earnings picture this has been a P/E multiple expansion to around 15-17. This looks even worse if you think that earnings are going to get worse through the rest of this year before stabiilizing in 2010 (that's where I'm at).

I've been dissatisfied with Obama's handling of the financial sector. He's relying on the insiders (some of who have contributed to this crisis) to guide his decisions and many of those insiders are only loyal to Wall St.

So, I agree with Cal it's going to get bad again but I disagree with him about the reasons why.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:42 PM   #27
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No, actually, everyone is saying, "the economy is bottoming".
depends on who you ask ...
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:46 PM   #28
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Somewhat agree with Cal. Markets don't bounce off of bottoms and immediately head north. Bottoms are tested at least twice and sometimes 3-4 times. His inflation expectations are a little much in my opinion because we're still getting a good dose of deflation. Inflation is 12-18 months off IMO. Whether it will be run away or not is a different question. This quantitative easing that the fed has been doing makes it really easy for the Fed to withdraw liquidity down the line thus reducing inflation.

As for the recent rally, I think you are seeing more risk appetite for risk so some people are allocating more to equites but there are also quite a few worrisome technical indicators that show this rally isn't healthy. While it has been broad the volume has been light on the big moves up. Heavy volume days were the few selloffs we did see. When you factor in the earnings picture this has been a P/E multiple expansion to around 15-17. This looks even worse if you think that earnings are going to get worse through the rest of this year before stabiilizing in 2010 (that's where I'm at).

I've been dissatisfied with Obama's handling of the financial sector. He's relying on the insiders (some of who have contributed to this crisis) to guide his decisions and many of those insiders are only loyal to Wall St.

The A\D line has broken out over recent resistance, the SP500 os finally in an oversold situation on a monthly basis and for the first time since 07 the Linear Regression Curve of the monthly SP500 is actually pointing up. Granted on the same monthly chart we have just retraced to the average and we are promptly retreating from it. Thus my statement that we are starting to look like we are bottoming out. If things keep going as they are we are setting up for a huge counter-trend rally.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:53 PM   #29
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The A\D line has broken out over recent resistance, the SP500 os finally in an oversold situation on a monthly basis and for the first time since 07 the Linear Regression Curve of the monthly SP500 is actually pointing up. Granted on the same monthly chart we have just retraced to the average and we are promptly retreating from it. Thus my statement that we are starting to look like we are bottoming out. If things keep going as they are we are setting up for a huge counter-trend rally.
We've been in a huge countertrend rally. We're up 25% since the March lows which haven't been tested. We might not get all the way back down to 660 but when you couple that with the earnings outlook this recent rally is on very shaky ground.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:59 PM   #30
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The basis for your previous market analysis was: Obama = Marxist therefore market = bloodbath.

You are entitled to your opinion, but that doesn't make it correct.

And I'm entited to point out that your analysis is rather thin on substance and heavy on political rhetoric.
You are entitled to your opinion, which is clouded by academia and your peer group.

I am sure you are a nice person in real life too. With that said, it is absolutely useless to call a numerical "bottom" on the dow. Heck, the30 companies that are in it could be changed before it reaches a bottom.

The symptoms of a bottom, to this kind of generational bear market is when "blood is running in the streets". You might read the book sometime.
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