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Old 05-15-2009, 11:33 AM  
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The economy is going deeper down the ****ter

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Old 05-15-2009, 03:03 PM   #31
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We've been in a huge countertrend rally. We're up 25% since the March lows which haven't been tested. We might not get all the way back down to 660 but when you couple that with the earnings outlook this recent rally is on very shaky ground.
We have been in a counter-trend rally based on a weekly chart, not on a monthly. And the trend is still coming out on a weekly basis though we are overbought short term. If I was to just take a guess at what I am seeing the next trend move could and should be to the upside on a weekly basis thus initiating the countertrend rally on a monthly basis. Keep in mind that the last bull market was completed entirely with trend coming out of the market on a monthly basis. Counter trend rallys on monthly charts don't last weeks, they last months if not years and we have yet to start. That being said I see the 800 level as key support for the SP500. If we break below that we are back in the dumps. We hold that and we start filling out the right side of an inverse heand and shoulders pattern.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:05 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
We've been in a huge countertrend rally. We're up 25% since the March lows which haven't been tested. We might not get all the way back down to 660 but when you couple that with the earnings outlook this recent rally is on very shaky ground.
I don't chart it out, and quantify it like you professionals do, but I go by my gut, and this is about how I see it as well. A 25 % pop off the lows is mighty tasty for a lot of shorts to come in and profit takers to bail.

All you need is some real shitty news to come out and good bye.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:06 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
depends on who you ask ...
That's what makes a market? It takes all kinds.

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Old 05-15-2009, 03:08 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
The basis for your previous market analysis was: Obama = Marxist therefore market = bloodbath.

You are entitled to your opinion, but that doesn't make it correct.

And I'm entited to point out that your analysis is rather thin on substance and heavy on political rhetoric.
Just face it Jaz, you can't stand that M word?

You can't run from the facts dude. He is what he is.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:09 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
I don't chart it out, and quantify it like you professionals do, but I go by my gut, and this is about how I see it as well. A 25 % pop off the lows is mighty tasty for a lot of shorts to come in and profit takers to bail.

All you need is some real shitty news to come out and good bye.
We are overbought short term and probably will see some form of the "sell in may and go away" seasonality. That being said we are at a point that if we hold some support levels we can be turning around.

My theory, I have never tried to quantify it, is that the first leg in a bull market is usually the rally everyone thinks won't last. Then when everyone buys the dip and the market starts rallying again, people catch on and you get the biggest move being the 3rd wave if you are an Elliot Wave person. Earnings I thought were better overall than many thought they would be. But the jobs outlook is still the fever the market has to break. That is why I get so pissed off when I hear people screaming "it's all about credit" when really it's all about jobs.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:19 PM   #36
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Just face it Jaz, you can't stand that M word?

You can't run from the facts dude. He is what he is.
Just face it, you don't really know what you are talking about.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:29 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
We are overbought short term and probably will see some form of the "sell in may and go away" seasonality. That being said we are at a point that if we hold some support levels we can be turning around.

My theory, I have never tried to quantify it, is that the first leg in a bull market is usually the rally everyone thinks won't last. Then when everyone buys the dip and the market starts rallying again, people catch on and you get the biggest move being the 3rd wave if you are an Elliot Wave person. Earnings I thought were better overall than many thought they would be. But the jobs outlook is still the fever the market has to break. That is why I get so pissed off when I hear people screaming "it's all about credit" when really it's all about jobs.
Certainly I might buy your scenario as plausible,(we are all wrong sometime), if the nature of the economy were different. In that I mean, we have had "fundamental change", the "change we need", "the change we can believe in". I take that to mean a paradigm shift in the overall makeup of the economy as effected by Barack Hussein Obama, President of the United states. We are not, or at least he would rather us not, be merely a for profit country. He would have us do much of our work pro bono, for the social good, etc.

That just won't get it done. What is going to happen when GM Bk's? more layoffs, and ancilary suppliers start bk'ing? They are closing dealerships today. On top of all that, we have commercial real estate about to bust. Do you think Circuit city is the only casualty when they bk? The guy that use to collect rent from this now has a lot of vacancy, that no greedy evil capitalist is in a hurry to re rent anytime soon. They need to pay of their bank notes they used to finance the construction of the plethora of malls that have sprung up everywhere.

But that's o.k, them evil capitalists had it coming to them.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:30 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
Just face it, you don't really know what you are talking about.
You know me better than that dude.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:33 PM   #39
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People who think we're past the worst of it are useful idiots.
whatever, we're VERY busy now at my job and two mos. ago we were doing nearly 50% as to what we currently are. Sorry, I totally don't agree (@ least as far as I can tell.)

If somebody can't make a decent living in America, they should only blame themselves.
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Old 05-15-2009, 04:26 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Just face it Jaz, you can't stand that M word?

You can't run from the facts dude. He is what he is.

I can actually see Cal's analysis jAZ. Basically, he's saying that Obama has embarked on a strategy of stimulating a constipated economy. Pete isn't correct when he says the root is jobs, because credit is the bottleneck that is preventing companies from financing their inventories and other "routine" financing activities. That bottleneck is the primary cause for the job loss.

In short, Pete is emphasizing the symptom over the disease.

Obama is applying a Keynsian solution, but the problem here isn't so much consumer confidence (yes its bad, but, again, I see the cc problem as a symptom)

The problem is the real estate industry was wildly wrong about its risk models. Consequently, the hedge strategies used to secure against default also got blasted to smitherees. With the wide proliferation of security instruments, those defaults demolished porfolios worldwide.

It takes time for the financial industry to build new risk models. Then those models are going to need to be tested. During that time, stimulus is going to have litte effect.

We are seeing that right now. Despite massive government support, banks aren't using money to provide loans, they're using the money to pay down debt, improve their balance sheets and survival-level cash flow management. Banks are busily trying to figure out the true value of the assets on their books. Hence our current deflation.

When that bottleneck clears, and the finance industry feels secure about lending once more, Obama's stimulus money will then flood the market. That period is likely to feature rapid inflation.

It might not happen, but Obama would have to have perfectly gauged the post bottleneck consumer confidence problem, months in advance. However, I think Obama's team is giving him advice that more closely resembles Paul Krugman than Milton Friedman. Krugman claims that all the "risk" is in not stimulating ENOUGH rather than stimulating too much. Hence my belief that Obama has over-evaluated the post bottleneck cc problem.

If Obama has "underevaluated" the post bottleneck cc problem, then we are likely to have a period of "stagflation". If he's wildly undervalued it, we're likely to have long term recession/depression.

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Old 05-15-2009, 07:07 PM   #41
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Anyone who believes they can accurately predict what's going to happen with this market is kidding themselves. This market is behaving completely irrationally. There's no telling what will happen.

If you're invested, you just have to pay close attention and be ready to bail if necessary.
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Old 05-15-2009, 07:25 PM   #42
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Everyone has been talking about how unemployment will be getting worse through the end of this year. The stock market turns around first, but unemployment lags.

I'm not sure why this thread was worth your energy.
Idiot, everybody knows that. The stock market is not showing any signs of turning around.
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Old 05-15-2009, 07:26 PM   #43
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turned around? no

started to bottom out? more than likely
It's just getting warmed up.
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Old 05-15-2009, 07:26 PM   #44
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Anyone who believes they can accurately predict what's going to happen with this market is kidding themselves. This market is behaving completely irrationally. There's no telling what will happen.

If you're invested, you just have to pay close attention and be ready to bail if necessary.
That would have been golden advice a year and a half ago.
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Old 05-15-2009, 09:11 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by JohnnyV13 View Post
I can actually see Cal's analysis jAZ. Basically, he's saying that Obama has embarked on a strategy of stimulating a constipated economy. Pete isn't correct when he says the root is jobs, because credit is the bottleneck that is preventing companies from financing their inventories and other "routine" financing activities. That bottleneck is the primary cause for the job loss.

In short, Pete is emphasizing the symptom over the disease.

Obama is applying a Keynsian solution, but the problem here isn't so much consumer confidence (yes its bad, but, again, I see the cc problem as a symptom)

The problem is the real estate industry was wildly wrong about its risk models. Consequently, the hedge strategies used to secure against default also got blasted to smitherees. With the wide proliferation of security instruments, those defaults demolished porfolios worldwide.

It takes time for the financial industry to build new risk models. Then those models are going to need to be tested. During that time, stimulus is going to have litte effect.

We are seeing that right now. Despite massive government support, banks aren't using money to provide loans, they're using the money to pay down debt, improve their balance sheets and survival-level cash flow management. Banks are busily trying to figure out the true value of the assets on their books. Hence our current deflation.

When that bottleneck clears, and the finance industry feels secure about lending once more, Obama's stimulus money will then flood the market. That period is likely to feature rapid inflation.

It might not happen, but Obama would have to have perfectly gauged the post bottleneck consumer confidence problem, months in advance. However, I think Obama's team is giving him advice that more closely resembles Paul Krugman than Milton Friedman. Krugman claims that all the "risk" is in not stimulating ENOUGH rather than stimulating too much. Hence my belief that Obama has over-evaluated the post bottleneck cc problem.

If Obama has "underevaluated" the post bottleneck cc problem, then we are likely to have a period of "stagflation". If he's wildly undervalued it, we're likely to have long term recession/depression.
I don't have time to do point by point, but I agree with a *lot* of this without question. I don't want to say all of it, but it's the best post yet in this thread.
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