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Old 05-15-2009, 11:33 AM  
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The economy is going deeper down the ****ter

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Old 05-15-2009, 10:47 PM   #46
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I think there could be a double-dip.
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Old 05-15-2009, 10:51 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Simply Red View Post
whatever, we're VERY busy now at my job and two mos. ago we were doing nearly 50% as to what we currently are. Sorry, I totally don't agree (@ least as far as I can tell.)

If somebody can't make a decent living in America, they should only blame themselves.
Down markets are the best time to make money. Anyone who blames an economy for their financial state is too busy making excuses...

When the commercial real estate market takes it's upcoming free fall, and baby boomers sick of watching retirement go bye-bye pull out of the market--fortunes will be made and the men will be separated from the boys.

We're looking down the barrel of a great time to make a lot of money....
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Old 05-15-2009, 10:58 PM   #48
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Down markets are the best time to make money. Anyone who blames an economy for their financial state is too busy making excuses...

When the commercial real estate market takes it's upcoming free fall, and baby boomers sick of watching retirement go bye-bye pull out of the market--fortunes will be made and the men will be separated from the boys.

We're looking down the barrel of a great time to make a lot of money....
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I happened to have my former employer acquired for cash about a year ago. I never bothered to move the money out of cash. Personally, I'm ok with a second dip.

The commercial bubble will definately be an issue.
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Old 05-15-2009, 11:33 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by JohnnyV13 View Post
I can actually see Cal's analysis jAZ. Basically, he's saying that Obama has embarked on a strategy of stimulating a constipated economy. Pete isn't correct when he says the root is jobs, because credit is the bottleneck that is preventing companies from financing their inventories and other "routine" financing activities. That bottleneck is the primary cause for the job loss.

In short, Pete is emphasizing the symptom over the disease.

Obama is applying a Keynsian solution, but the problem here isn't so much consumer confidence (yes its bad, but, again, I see the cc problem as a symptom)
Credit is easing. We're no longer in the absolutely no one wants to lend phase anymore. We're still a long way off from returning to normalcy but we're also not seeing companies having near the amount of problems rolling commercial paper over that they did in Sept-November.


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Originally Posted by JohnnyV13 View Post
The problem is the real estate industry was wildly wrong about its risk models. Consequently, the hedge strategies used to secure against default also got blasted to smitherees. With the wide proliferation of security instruments, those defaults demolished porfolios worldwide.

It takes time for the financial industry to build new risk models. Then those models are going to need to be tested. During that time, stimulus is going to have litte effect.
This is where I basically agree with you but it's a little deeper than this. The problem isn't just the individual models themselves it's more of the widespread acceptance of VaR (value at risk) without the understanding of the underlying statistics. Nassim Taleb has been hammering on this for quite sometime and if you want to delve into this fascinating area more I suggest you read his book Black Swan. The basic premise is that statistic risk modeling is fine and you can design a portfolio that won't lose more than X% amount 99% of the time but the 1% of the time events are catastrophic (and often fatal) events that should be given more prominence wrt risk. Financial returns aren't normally distributed and have what is known as fat tail risk. VaR doesn't model this well because it assumes a normal distribution. I'm not trying to demonize VaR but it has played a large role in this mess. When it is taken as part of the picture it is a very valuable tool. The problem was the managers in charge of everything didn't understand these numbers and the implications of them. The CIO's and VP's liked having that VaR to give to the board and other oversight committees at their corporations and those people ate them up without realizing that the CIO's, VP's and such were using them to justify gross over leverage. Leverage isn't a bad thing but what it gives when times are good is not as much as what it takes when things are bad.

I have been very critical of many people in my profession for what I call an over-reliance on math. Advanced math has overridden common sense of many (formerly) great investors. Too many managers got caught up in these advanced models without realizing there were things that would make them break down and those things occurred more often than was accounted for. This is one of the areas that has fascinated me about this whole mess (if I ever go for a PhD in Finance I will most certainly delve into something related to this).

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We are seeing that right now. Despite massive government support, banks aren't using money to provide loans, they're using the money to pay down debt, improve their balance sheets and survival-level cash flow management. Banks are busily trying to figure out the true value of the assets on their books. Hence our current deflation.

When that bottleneck clears, and the finance industry feels secure about lending once more, Obama's stimulus money will then flood the market. That period is likely to feature rapid inflation.

It might not happen, but Obama would have to have perfectly gauged the post bottleneck consumer confidence problem, months in advance. However, I think Obama's team is giving him advice that more closely resembles Paul Krugman than Milton Friedman. Krugman claims that all the "risk" is in not stimulating ENOUGH rather than stimulating too much. Hence my belief that Obama has over-evaluated the post bottleneck cc problem.

If Obama has "underevaluated" the post bottleneck cc problem, then we are likely to have a period of "stagflation". If he's wildly undervalued it, we're likely to have long term recession/depression.
This is where we diverge. The banks know what the bad assets are worth. They can sell the bad assets in the market but don't want to because they are carrying them at artificially high marks and they would trigger more writedowns if they were to sell them at market prices (it's kinda hard to justify marking on your books at $.85 on the dollar when you just sold some of the same asset for $.45 on the dollar). The PPIP program is highway robbery and I'm firmly against however I think it will be DOA because of some of the conditions of the program. Also, the Inspector General or GAO (can't remember which right now and don't feel like looking) came out with a report that said PPIP needed to be redesigned with much stronger oversights because of the potential for fraud (it's quite easy as the plan stands right now this to be a major transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the banks).

Right now the banks aren't lending much however they are enjoying record spreads and are trying to earn their way out of this. I think this will just lead to a lost decade similar to Japan after their banking crisis. The banks are basically being given money at no interest (.00-.25% rates right now) and they are turning around and conservatively lending it out at 4.5% and higher. They are being conservative because we are seeing a return of underwriting standards which had disappeared in the boom because banks no longer cared about if the loan was going to be paid because they were going to sell it off by either securitizing it themselves or selling it to an investment bank. This is where the rating agencies got involved and rated garbage as AAA. While all this was going on you had the investment banks and some regualr banks levering up because of their "fantastic" risk models and you can see how this can melt into a giant cluser****.


As far as long term recession/depression, we're already there. This recession started in December of 2007. We're well on our way to the 2 year mark and I think we will hit it. Whether you consider a depression or not depends on where you are. If you are an American it is a really bad recession. Our economy isn't dependent on exports so we aren't seeing near the drop that Emerging Markets that are dependent on exports are. If you look back to the great depression we exported quite a bit so when the rest of the world had a down turn it impacted us much more severely than the rest of the world. The opposite is true now.

As far as inflation is concerned I agree with you to an extent. I don't think high inflation will be a problem. I think we may see 7-8% on the top side. The Fed has put so much money in and in a myriad of ways that if we start to see inflation becoming a problem there are several ways the Fed can reduce inflation without raising interest rates. I do think we will see a return to inflation because there is no other way to deal with our mountain of debt but I don't think the Fed will let it become a pernicious force going forward.
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Old 05-15-2009, 11:58 PM   #50
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Nope, the problem is people are saving their money to the gnashing and gnarling of teeth of the Keynesians in Wash DC. They think this is BAD when it'd good. It's what our govt should be doing too.
Savings lead to future economic growth and investment based on real economic activity of production and exchange not cheap easy credit where one side buys a whole lot of junk because they think credit is road to riches. But saying such things is like throwing pearls before swine.
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Old 05-16-2009, 12:32 AM   #51
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That would have been golden advice a year and a half ago.
It's always golden advice. If you're not paying attention to your investments and 401k, then it's all on you when it takes a dive (at least, as much as you have control over).
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Old 05-16-2009, 07:55 AM   #52
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legalize Weed please... Solve some money issues
Legalizing weed might make the pain go away, but it's not going to solve any economic issues. Exporting weed could help though.
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Old 05-16-2009, 07:57 AM   #53
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Obama is now denouncing deficit spending.
That guy must think 53% of us are morons or something.
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Old 05-16-2009, 08:02 AM   #54
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I wouldn't go on record either, because I don't know where it's going. But then again, I also didn't make any bloodbath predictions that I might be called to justify either.
You did say that the recession ended last month though. We'll see about that.
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Old 05-16-2009, 09:35 AM   #55
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I think there could be a double-dip.
First it was supposed to last 10 years, then it was supposed to be over because you saw some people at the mall. Now it's a double-dip, eh?
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Old 05-16-2009, 10:15 AM   #56
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First it was supposed to last 10 years, then it was supposed to be over because you saw some people at the mall. Now it's a double-dip, eh?
The mall doesn't lie.
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Old 05-16-2009, 10:19 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You did say that the recession ended last month though. We'll see about that.
Actually, I said...

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Originally Posted by jAZ View Post
You can't know these sorts of things for sure until you are looking backward, so even for people well above my pay grade, it's speculation.

But the thing that apparently has turned around (and we'll know more after 6 months or so) is that the "recession" ended last month.
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:47 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by SBK View Post
Down markets are the best time to make money. Anyone who blames an economy for their financial state is too busy making excuses...

When the commercial real estate market takes it's upcoming free fall, and baby boomers sick of watching retirement go bye-bye pull out of the market--fortunes will be made and the men will be separated from the boys.

We're looking down the barrel of a great time to make a lot of money....
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As long as Obama doesn't decide you made too much.
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:53 AM   #59
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As long as Obama doesn't decide you made too much.
You seem to have mentioned you are self employed in the past but you absolutely don't come off as having the spirit of an entrepreneur.

You seem like you think about every reason you can't do something. Why do when you can blame it on the government boogey man?
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:54 AM   #60
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The mall doesn't lie.
must be, they are closing stores left and right. I haven't been to one in years.
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