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Old 05-15-2009, 12:33 PM  
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The economy is going deeper down the ****ter

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Old 05-16-2009, 01:09 PM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Credit is easing. We're no longer in the absolutely no one wants to lend phase anymore. We're still a long way off from returning to normalcy but we're also not seeing companies having near the amount of problems rolling commercial paper over that they did in Sept-November.


.
Libor rates are at 30 year lows, but the problem going forward is a generational attitude change in demand for loans. The savings rate was reported at about 4 % in yesterdays WSJ.
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Old 05-16-2009, 01:31 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
You seem to have mentioned you are self employed in the past but you absolutely don't come off as having the spirit of an entrepreneur.

You seem like you think about every reason you can't do something. Why do when you can blame it on the government boogey man?
Have you ever paid estimated taxes? Quarterly sales taxes? 941 payments for employees? Self employment taxes? paid for 100% of your own health insurance premiums out of your profit? Capital gains taxes? Property taxes on your business property? Licensing fees from the local government? Fees for measuring devices by the county government? Workers compensation insurance?

All must be paid on time or penalties and interest will be added.

Maybe not an entrepreneur, but, you might be right about that government boogey man thing.
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Old 05-16-2009, 07:31 PM   #63
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B.O.'s stimulus package sure is working---

Stimulating higher unemployment.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:10 AM   #64
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Double Dip was referring to commercial real estate; not retail sales. But that's a good thing as it's also a correction.
Things were improving then ( statistics showed it too) which was the real correction as prices were deflating. Hence sales...drawing people.

The stock market rally that passed though, was a response to the Fed's monetarization/Keynesianism and prices are also starting to climb. There can be rallies in a bear market too. That too stemed from monetarization starting to enter in the system. ( or maybe even the Plunge Protection Team too)

What's gonna happen over a longer period though is inflation. The deflationary aspects that were happening earlier was the real market correcting. Commercial real estate was predicted to follow later. That also is a correction. But the real correction won't last as that would be deflationary. Inflation will replace it. That's the Keynesian stimulus.

Ben's monetarization will cause the cost of living to soar while Obama's spending will require a destructive level taxes to handle his spending and deficits. His rhetoric is already preparing us due to his talks on deficits not being sustainable.

You just wait. The Keynesian stimulus is beginning to work it's way into the system. I've already seen it at the supermarket. The taxes will follow harming recovery.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:33 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Double Dip was referring to commercial real estate; not retail sales. But that's a good thing as it's also a correction.
Things were improving then ( statistics showed it too) which was the real correction as prices were deflating. Hence sales...drawing people.
It should have been referring to the economy in general, since that was the topic that was being discussed. No one had mentioned commercial real estate, and your backpedalling is of course, pretty dubious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
The stock market rally that passed though, was a response to the Fed's monetarization/Keynesianism and prices are also starting to climb. There can be rallies in a bear market too. That too stemed from monetarization starting to enter in the system. ( or maybe even the Plunge Protection Team too)
The bear market rally was the result of overselling and short squeezing. Most of the "injected" money hasn't reached the economy at large at this point. Now, it's easy to see that we are peaking the bear market rally, as the major charlatans in the mess are generating new stock offerings left and right with the expectation that they will make a ton as the market crashes back down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
What's gonna happen over a longer period though is inflation. The deflationary aspects that were happening earlier was the real market correcting. Commercial real estate was predicted to follow later. That also is a correction. But the real correction won't last as that would be deflationary. Inflation will replace it. That's the Keynesian stimulus.
You said this would be a ten year Depression, apparently, the Keynesian stimulus works a hell of a lot better than you thought it would. You were all ready with the Amity Schlaes-lite "this is the New Deal part II" where we ficticiously drag out the recession by that "bad ol gubment interference". But it didn't work out the way you'd planned, so now you've changed tacks, no surprise there, whatever square peg you can clutch onto to fit in that round hole.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
You just wait. The Keynesian stimulus is beginning to work it's way into the system. I've already seen it at the supermarket. The taxes will follow harming recovery.
How many people were at the supermarket buying the olives that were slightly overpriced? I wonder how that impacted your ten year economic outlook?
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Old 05-17-2009, 08:37 AM   #66
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From the Mall Thread

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...highlight=Mall

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The point was deflation will also make people spend, helps them through it. Inflation instead is the solution by our Keyenesian mainstream economists.
You raised a good point about big ticket items vs small ticket items. Such things like clothes and movies did pretty well in the Great Depression too.

Quote:
Anecdotal evidence now reflected statistically...
Ayup! My gut instincts ( just like on Iraq) and observations turn out to be on the money again.


1:38 "...two months in a row retail sales better than expected"

Earlier Kudlow mentions the "better February,early March economic numbers outside of jobs....."

Schiff versus the Inflationists. You Tube Video Inserted



Quote:
Maybe things bottomed out and they only way to go is up? I think some indicators will lag while some improve. Just a guess.
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Old 05-17-2009, 08:40 AM   #67
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It ain't rocket science.
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Old 05-17-2009, 09:43 AM   #68
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It ain't kindergarten either.

If it's as easy to figure things out as you suggest, then I assume you're a billionaire already.

I've just finished reading a Peter Schiff book. He doesn't think this stuff is that simple. That's why he has a book full of analysis. He had a lot of insightful things to say about our present state. A little too gloomy and preachy about government I thought, but otherwise some useful investment advice.
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Old 05-17-2009, 10:39 AM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
You shouldn't use Schiff to justify your points. He's not very good.

This is too long to post but pretty much shows how and where is wrong.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...was-wrong.html


Quote:
Peter Schiff Was Wrong

There are numerous YouTube videos, articles, and references to Peter Schiff being "right" rapidly circulating the globe. While Schiff was indeed correct about the US imploding, most of the praise heaped on Schiff is simply unwarranted, and I can prove it.

First, let's start with a look at the claim being made. Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the following statement.

Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly.

Highlight in red is mine.

I would like to see some proof of that statement. Specifically I would like to see the average returns posted by EuroPacific clients for 2008.

I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008. There are many other such claims on the internet. They are entirely believable for the simple reason Schiff's investment thesis was flat out wrong.

I have an actual portfolio statement from one of Schiff's clients at the end to discuss, for now let's discuss the main points of Schiff's thesis.

Schiff's Overall Thesis

* US Equity Markets Will Crash.
* US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
* Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
* Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.


Schiff was correct about point number 1 above. The US equity markets crashed. That was a very good call. Unfortunately, his investment thesis centered on shorting the dollar in a hyperinflation bet, and buying foreign equities rather than shorting US equities.

Furthermore, Schiff made no allowances for being wrong and had no exit strategy whatsoever.

What happened in 2008 was that foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and a strengthening US dollar compounded the situation.

In other words, Schiff failed where it matters most: Peter Schiff did not protect his client's assets. Let's take a look how, and more importantly why, starting with charts of various foreign indices.
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Old 05-17-2009, 11:41 AM   #70
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Did I hear a noise?
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Old 05-17-2009, 11:48 AM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Did I hear a noise?
You should probably go to the doctor and get that checked out.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:12 PM   #72
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Old 05-17-2009, 03:10 PM   #73
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You should probably go to the doctor and get that checked out.
It's a defense mechanism she seems to have developed due to you constantly crushing her arguments.
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Old 05-17-2009, 03:29 PM   #74
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Eh...I do that when I see posts by people on ignore. With the old ignore you'd never know they were posting after you or not...only if you can see the quote.
I just put most ah's on ignore. I can deal with worthier opponents.

And it's a matter of opinion if KC or banyon is crushing my arguments. The rep I get doesn't thinks so but then that depends on which school of thought you're in economically or one's political philosophy. Nothing to see here folks move on.
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Old 05-21-2009, 01:47 PM   #75
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The economy is worse now than it was 100 days ago. Yet the media is not bombarding us with all the doom and gloom stories like they did before the election. Gee, I wonder why?

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