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Old 06-20-2009, 01:06 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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LOOKS LIKE IRAN IS CHOOSING TO TIANANMEN OPTION

Watching a lot of videos of Basijis opening fire and rounding people up in the cover of darkness.

Got a bad feeling a lot of Iranians are going to disappear tonight...
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Old 06-20-2009, 09:35 PM   #76
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- During the night, the police entered certain neighbourhood to arrest public servants and force them to appear at tomorrow's pro-Ahmadinejad manifestation, but the people went out in the street and forced them out of their neighbourhoods. The Basij have kept on storming dorms. So far the reports are conflicting, but it appears that the death toll could be as high as 40 for the protesters, with two dead on the side of the repressive militias. This is the end of the third wave.

early 16th of June - Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. People are dressed in black and told to protest silently.

- The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Rumours are that they are taking position in buildings next to the parade and in bunkers to attack. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country. A major showdown is expected to unfold.

- The crackdown on people using telecommunication is as strong as ever. Anyone with a laptop, camera or cellphone is attacked in the street by plainclothes militias. Tehran hotels are under lockdown to prevent the members of the foreign press not yet expulsed from reporting what is happening.

- As for the Iranian Government and different branches, there are rumours that many Army Generals have been arrested for plotting a Coup d'État, but this is still speculation at this point. The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. Moussavi and his supporters have rejected this, claiming that they want new elections. Khameini is now using the armed Basij as his own bodyguards, hundreds of them are surround him and his residence to protect from attempted assassinations. Ahmadinejad himself is in Russia right now, for a planned visit, and tries to pretend that everything is good as usual.

midday 16th of June to early 17th of June - The fourth wave of violence has started, and was expected to flare up very soon. It surprisingly was quite mild. Pro-Moussavi supporters said that there were even more people today protesting against the regime, though raw numbers are hard to get. If this is true, it means there are more than 2M protesters in the street right now. They are dressed in black and protesting silently and without violence so far. Other reports that only 250,000 were in the street, possibly scared by the Basij and propaganda.

- The Basij, surprisingly, did not attacking the march itself but rather assaulted dorms again. It looks like they are using the march as a diversion. In Tehran proper, 2000 Basij are waiting to storm the male dorm, and they are backed by IRG helicopters, which seems to send the message that the IRG has broken from their undeclared neutrality toward tacitely supporting the Regime.

- The crackdown on telecommunications is starting to suffocate all of Iran. As of now:

* Gmail and GTalk are shut down
* Yahoo is shut down
* AIM is most likely shut down
* Phone lines are down most of the time
* HTTPS and other such protocols are down most of the time
* Iranian ISPs have been shut down
* They are trying very hard to close down the Iranian connexion to twitter and giving proxies they control in order to track down people
* Cellphones and SMS are shut down
People are also receiving phone calls from the government saying "We know you were in the protests".

- Night fell on Iran, and the Basij were roaming, attacking passerbys at random. They had also surrounded dorms and stormed them once again.

17th of June - With the end of the fourth wave of violence, we have been in a wait and see mode. As of right now, there are many rumors involving clerics and Ayatollahs meeting in the Holy Shiite city of Qom and planning to overthrow Khameini, as well as reports that some in the Army plotting to overthrow the government, semi-confirmations from credible twitterers, but nothing concrete or substantiated so far. These would be extremely big development, so it's better to treat them with caution.

- Nothing much has happened on this day aside of that. There was another mostly peaceful march, with around 500,000 protesters in the street. The Basij and others are still roaming around and beating on the population, as well as dressing in green, destroying buildings and trying to pin the blame on the protesters in order to make them look like a bunch of thugs.

- There have been more than a hundred people arrested in their hospital beds and taken to prison. The number of prisoners right now is estimated between 1,000 and 10,000; possibly more. The Basij are now laying traps into hospitals themselves, trying to snatch up protesters there. There are also reports that they are taking dead bodies before they are identified, stuffing them in vans and leaving to undisclosed locations. Doctors have been setting up outside clinics and fighting back in order to stop the Basij from doing what they do.

18th of June - The protests show no signs of slowing down, and the fact that the government has been less violent so far and concentrating on discrediting the protesters instead shows that they are losing grip and painfully aware of all the attention given to what is happening right now, CNN notwithstanding. It's also a worrying step, because the moment they start feeling they are losing grip even more is the moment where they might begin to unleash brutal waves of violence again, much worse than what we've seen so far.

- Iran Human Rights reports that today alone hundreds of members of the opposition and known Reformists have been arrested, some of them tortured in the basements of government buildings.

- There is a (so far) quiet march going on, where all the protesters are dressed in black and mourning those who have died so far. The crowds are estimated to be as big as they have been for the last few days, so that puts them between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000 in Tehran alone.

- Khameini has agreed to a recount of 600 out of the thousands of ballot boxes, but this has been rejected by the opposition, who says that these elections are to be declared null and void, and that new elections have to be rescheduled. Khameini in return rejected this. There are reports that Mousavi went as far as saying that Khameini does not have authority to preside over the state of Iran anymore.

- As a sign of growing tension in the governmental apparatus, fist-fights were said to have broken out in Parliament over who to support, but it seems that the Parliament will ultimately back Ahmadinejad and Khameini to the end. The Interior Ministry has ordered a police investigation into the massacre of 7 civilians by a Basij firing in a crowd. There are also reports of police officers deserting their posts and joining the protesters, while others use their position in the police force as a way to warn protesters from incoming arrests or crack downs. The army is still silent. There are reports that the man who leaked results of the election giving Khatami winner and Ahmadinejad as losing in third position has been killed in a car "accident".

- The State TV has been turned into a full-blown anti-Revolution machine, constantly hammering on how evil the "thugs" who are smashing around private property are. Problem is that those thugs are in fact Basij dressed in green, but IRIB is reporting it as pro-Moussavi supporters. They have also been showing documentaries about the evils of the internet and how the US, UK and Israel are behind the protests. State Radio is not much better, with talking heads calling for the death of those evil thugs destabilizing the country at the behest of external forces. They have also issued false reports that Moussavi was "condeming the rioters".

- The Government has closed Iran to all foreign communication and coverage, according to many reports. It would also seem that the Iranian government has opened an account in the name of Ayatollah Khameini on Twitter. There are reports that senior aides to all reformist candidates have been arrested, but it has yet to be corroborated and this is not the first time we hear such reports.

- According to Reuters, Iranian prosecutors have warned of the death penalty for the rioters who are involved in violence. Islamic cleric have warned that not going to Friday's prayer service makes you worthy of the death penalty. It is unclear yet what isn't worthy of death penalty at this point if you protest against the regime.

- All the violence reported over Iran is now exclusively done by the Basij, Ansar and, if the rumours are true, Hizbullah and Hamas. The police have completely stopped participating in the repression of the population, and both the Army and IRG are standing still and not doing anything. This is good news, but the Basij are sadly not reducing the level of violence they are unleashing on the population, beating up everyone they can get their hands on. It continued all throughout the night and during the day, but due to the mass of people involved it seems that they are restraining themselves when it comes to the mass rallies, preferring to pick isolated targets.

- Universities have cancelled all exams all over the country, and a long list of rebel students was given to all universities and they have to report the students, who are to be arrested on sight.

- There have been a few confirmed cases of people threatened inside the United States for providing proxies for the revolution. Their details were available on the internet so they were passed around pro-Government forces. If you are helping this revolution, be careful to do so as anonymously as you can. It doesn't mean you are risking your life, but it could potentially result in harrassment or vandalism.

19th of June - Supreme Leader Khameini called for Friday Prayers where he was present and delivered the sermons. Reformist leaders and their supporters boycotted it. Supporters of Khameini flooded Tehran from all corners of Iran on Friday, and big post-speech clashes are expected during the night and tomorrow.

- Iranian prosecutors have warned protesters that violence might be punished with the death penalty, according to Reuters. As the Basij, they are cracking down on the population as ever, roaming the streets, vandalizing both pro and anti-Mousavi targets while pretending to be pro-Mousavi forces and trying to crack down on all dissenters.

The revolution lives on. Long live the revolution!

Demands from the protesters

Today, Mousavi gave an important speech. Here's the video, and translation

"I have come due to concerns of current political and social conditions - to defend the rights of the nation. I have come to improve Iran's International relations. I have come to tell the world and return to Iran our pride, our dignity, our future. I have come to bring to Iran a FUTURE of FREEDOM, of HOPE. I have come to represent the poor the helpless the hungry. I have come to be ACCOUNTABLE to you my people and to this world.

"Iran must participate in FAIR elections, it is a matter of national importance. I have come to you because of the corruption in Iran. 25% inflation means IGNORANCE - THIEVING - CORRUPTION - where is the wealth of my nation? What have you done with $300 BILLION in last 4 years - where is the wealth of the nation? The next Government of Iran will be chosen by the people. Why do all our young want to leave this country?"

"I know of no creation who places HIMSELF ahead of 20 million of the nation. We are Muslims - what is happening in Iran's Government is a sin! This Government is not what Imam Khomeini wanted for Iran - I will change all this - This is the SEA of GREEN!!"

This is a major landmark. Here are the 7 demands that are distributed by pamphlets to protesters:

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point possible successor of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since shortly after beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime. The divide grew wider in 1988 when he had a falling out with Khomeini and was removed from his position as heir to the Supreme Leadership. He is one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

He has also come out with a statement saying that policemen who beat on protesters and follow orders will not be forgiven under Islam, and that even if the government cuts the lines of communication with the outside world, that it was too late and the truth was getting out

Links

For further information on the Basij, Global Security has a good article about the history of the Basij. CNN has a good article where eyewitnesses describe the type of violence usually unleashed by the Basij. Here is another good article from GS again giving more background information on the ruthless Ansar thugs. BBC profile of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri

important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to tehran!

regarding the supposed numbers received by all three candidates giving Moussavi the winner and Ahmadinejad third with 7M votes: The only confirmation is an Iranian journalist. We don't have any external data confirming those numbers. 7M for Ahmadinejad seems quite low, so treat this as an unsubstantiated rumour for the moment.
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Old 06-20-2009, 09:45 PM   #77
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Highlights of 6/20/09:

Protestors were violently blocked today from getting to Azadi and Englehab Squares by massive armed presence. This seems to be a direct result of Khamenei's speech and orders to meet protestors with violence. Protests happened in cities all over the country, and have been met with brutality. There are reports of protestors fighting back, even having burned down at least one Basij headquarter. One mosque was burned in Tehran with protestors inside it, though casualties are not known.

The government report that a suicide bomber struck at the shrine of Imam Khomeini, inflicting heavy damage and deaths, have NOT been verified. Iranian TV has been airing videoed "confessions" of Iranian youth saying that they had been recruited and trained to cause this disturbance by the UK, Israeli, and US governments.

Confirmed:
- at least 19 deaths, including what is becoming an iconic video of a young woman's graphic death
- authorities using water cannons, tear gas, and clubs on protestors (male and female, with some reports that the women are being beaten as hard if not harder than the men)
- helicopters dropping some sort of agent on protestors (likely CS). Khamenei claimed it was water to cool the protestors, Twitter reports that it burned and blinded people (it was NOT white phosphorous - burning sensation was consistent with CS)
- Basij using concrete-weighted PVC pipes as weapons.
- Basij marking doorways of protestor's homes
- At least one unit of the Iranian Police begged protestors for calm and peace
- Ministry of Culture on Saturday banned international media from reporting on the demonstrations unless they receive permission from Iranian authorities
- Iranian government has agreed to recount 10% of the votes, chosen at random
- Electricity was cut to many Tehran neighbourhoods on Saturday evening
- Mousavi issued a long statement today that asked protestors to remain peaceful (and not take revenge on the Basij), and demanded a new election. He also stated his readiness to become a martyr and asked iranians to strike in the event of his arrest.
- Hospitals have been recognized as unsafe, as Basij are laying in wait and taking injured people away
- Several Embassies are accepting injured iranians, and have asked for doctors to come forward.

Things We're Gathering More Information/Confirmation On:

-Tanks moving into Tehran. More tweets coming in confirming the tanks. We don't know if its IRG, Army, or Basij using them. PK, CfI and knv have said that they do not know of any armored units moving into the city. PK believes its a hoax sent out by the government. Those that claimed to have seen it are RTs or 5+ hours old
-Basij waiting outside embassies for wounded. Sparse reports of it, not considered confirmed yet
-Whether or not Hizbollah from outside Iran has come to the government's aid. We have reason to believe Iranian Hizbollah (Anser) is being used. No confirmation on Lebanese Hizbollah or Hamas, rumors abound though of arabic speaking police, sparking this.
-What is occuring in other cities around Iran, such as Rasht
-Whether earlier reports of a section of Tehran (Eastern, I believe) was secured by protesters. They could very well have secured it at one point, but it could've been lost, not that light has fallen
-Acid from helicopters still thought to be tear gas/CS gas plus water. Symptoms seem to be consistent with those.
-Khemeini reported to have been taken to a military base for safety
-The status of the military and whether the Army and IRG are going to come out against the government. The IRG is the new police force, but it is rumored that they refuse to fire on civilians. One of the Grand Ayatollahs, who is against the SA, claims to have the backing of the army. more confirmations are needed
-Whether the report from the Assembly of Experts was a hoax or not regarding their support of the Supreme Ayatollah. If so, what is the statement from them
-Mullahs marching with protesters in Mashdad
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Old 06-20-2009, 09:47 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by irishjayhawk View Post
Judging from people on the ground, this is a pretty rampant rumor. They so far have refused mobilization against the people so that says something in itself. But rumors are the generals in command aren't happy with developments.
I heard another rumor just tonight that some of the generals are actually under arrest as a preemptive measure.
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Old 06-20-2009, 09:49 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Was in a discussion with some Iranians at the local coffee shop here in Los Angeles and they said about the same thing you say above. I asked if that would turn them against us and pro-government. He said it would have the opposite effect, in his opinion. He said that the thugs that are beating people on the street feel as if they have to answer to no one and if their leaders were bombed it would embolden the people in a way that the Iranian government couldn't stop.

Of course he also said he expects Israel to bomb Iran in the next 24 hours while there is an ongoing resistence on the ground so who knows?
Only if the US could bomb just the leaders. But how?
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Old 06-20-2009, 09:52 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
I heard another rumor just tonight that some of the generals are actually under arrest as a preemptive measure.
That's been floating for a while.

Some twitterers are commenting that the "tanks in Tehran" rumor is - so far - fake because the users can be easily traced to pro-government people (twitters with 30-40 following) saying the same messages.
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Old 06-20-2009, 10:07 PM   #81
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My thoughts and prayers are with the Iranian people, I sure hope the best for them.
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Old 06-20-2009, 10:22 PM   #82
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http://mashable.com/2009/06/20/iran-youtube/

Here are 10 pretty amazing videos from Iran the past few days.
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Old 06-20-2009, 10:51 PM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
Only if the US could bomb just the leaders. But how?
The USA would've had to have some ultra-deep cover operatives in Iran to pull off an assassination that would be impossible to track the source of. Not to mention be able to predict when such an uprising would occur. Now that Khamenei has holed up at a military base that makes any sort of assassination attempt impossible. And horribly unwise.

If I were a god, I'd prod the sanest head in the military to try and take over and take steps to establish a fair and nonrepressive government. No Pervez Musharaff bullshit.
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Old 06-20-2009, 11:44 PM   #84
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If this is how the Iranian people feel, I would be more than happy for us to give them our support.
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Old 06-20-2009, 11:54 PM   #85
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If this is how the Iranian people feel, I would be more than happy for us to give them our support.
Perfect.
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Old 06-20-2009, 11:57 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
If this is how the Iranian people feel, I would be more than happy for us to give them our support.
It truly is a great sign.
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Old 06-20-2009, 11:58 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Perfect.
The last thing I want to do is get involved to the point where it would chase them right back into their loving dictator's arms, but if they want our assistance as far as I'm concerned let's go kick some ass! Freedom for all who desire it.
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Old 06-21-2009, 12:01 AM   #88
Radar Chief Radar Chief is offline
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The last thing I want to do is get involved to the point where it would chase them right back into their loving dictator's arms, but if they want our assistance as far as I'm concerned let's go kick some ass! Freedom for all who desire it.
Without turning at least some elements of the Iranian miltitary these people are screwed, with or without our covert help. You're about to see exactly how ruthless the Ayatollah can be.

I suppose we could march in there and go all Desert Storm on them but that would be counterproductive at this particular point, IMO.
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Old 06-21-2009, 12:05 AM   #89
Der Flöprer Der Flöprer is offline
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Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Without turning at least some elements of the Iranian miltitary these people are screwed, with or without our covert help. You're about to see exactly how ruthless the Ayatollah can be.

I suppose we could march in there and go all Desert Storm on them but that would be counterproductive at this particular point, IMO.
I agree. I don't want to get involved with another country's affairs unless it's very clear that we are wanted there by a majority of the population.
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Old 06-21-2009, 12:15 AM   #90
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Do you still have family there? If so, that has to be tough being here with this going on over there right now.
Cousins in Tehran. Cousins and uncle and aunt in Isfahan. Vast distant family in many cities. My immediate family are all here. My mom was visiting Tehran until 2 days before the Election. She is now in Paris with her brother. She is in her mid 80s and 4'-11". I got a laugh out of her over the phone a couple of days ago when I accused her of going there and starting a "revolution."
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