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Old 01-23-2010, 08:43 AM  
Saul Good Saul Good is offline
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Will we see a major Dem challenge Obama for the 2012 nomination?

Hillary has been suspiciously quiet for at least the past 6 months. I think she knows that she will be way too old in 2016. Then, you see some Dems like Harold Ford doing their own thing and going against the party establishment. I've never seen an incumbent get a serious challenge in the primary, but I could see it happening this time.
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Old 01-28-2010, 06:43 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
There it is, Pete. You've answered your own question.

Thanks for the thread.
What the hell does this even mean? The only smart thing you've said in this thread is that you aren't that smart.
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Old 01-28-2010, 06:59 PM   #62
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Harold Ford Jr. is done. He lost his TN Senate race and tied himself to Goldman Sachs. That's political poison for the near future.
Maybe he should have tied himself to Fannie and Freddie.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:00 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
Will we see a major Rep challenge Obama for the 2012 election?
That's the million dollar question.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:13 PM   #64
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That's the million dollar question.


Actually no, it's the trillions of dollars question.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:21 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
What the hell does this even mean? The only smart thing you've said in this thread is that you aren't that smart.
Pete starts a thread asking if we will see a major Dem challenge in 2012.

Pete then says of course not about 25 posts later.

Then I had some fun.

Really, it was a fascinating discussion.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:22 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by ClevelandBronco View Post
Loser leaves.

Perhaps the reference is archaic. It refers to street drag racing for ownership of the loser's car.
Gotcha.

Hell, I'd do that, too.

Take me up on it, anybody.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:26 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Pete starts a thread asking if we will see a major Dem challenge in 2012.

Pete then says of course not about 25 posts later.

Then I had some fun.

Really, it was a fascinating discussion.
Please tell me you aren't this dumb. Even if you don't know why, apologize to Pete for your stupidity.
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:27 PM   #68
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Gotcha.

Hell, I'd do that, too.

Take me up on it, anybody.
Have you seen anybody predict that it will happen?
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Old 01-28-2010, 07:51 PM   #69
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How's this for timing? On Drudge:

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/peter-ro...a-in-2012.html

A Hillary Clinton Primary Challenge to Obama in 2012?
January 27, 2010 04:42 PM ET | Peter Roff | Permanent Link | Print

By Peter Roff, Thomas Jefferson Street blog

When President Barack Obama asked New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to join his cabinet as secretary of state, the move was widely praised. Clinton, his principal rival for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, added a measure of gravitas to his team of advisers and would, it was suggested, help unite the president's party at a time the Republicans appeared to be on the verge of complete collapse.

At the time, comparisons were made to Abraham Lincoln. Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin recounts in her book Team of Rivals how the 16th president of the United States invited others who held leadership claims on the new Republican Party
into his cabinet in an effort to present a united front. But Lincoln's decision to invite his rivals for the 1860 Republican nomination--William H. Seward, Edward Bates, and Salmon P. Chase--into his administration was also a matter of political preservation. Their inclusion in the cabinet kept them inside the tent looking out rather than outside the tent looking in, forcing an alliance with Lincoln as the Union threatened to come apart.

It will be up to history to judge whether Obama's selection of Clinton falls in the same category. Whether it does or not depends on what Clinton decides to do.

She is not, unsurprisingly, speaking publicly about her intentions beyond saying, as she told PBS's Tavis Smiley in an interview that airs Wednesday night, that she is "absolutely not interested" in running again for president of the United States. But in the same interview Clinton also allows that her current job is a difficult and time-consuming one and that, while she is honored to have it, she cannot see herself serving in the same post in a second Obama administration.

The ongoing decline in the president's approval ratings has more than a few Democrats concerned. The Democratic defeats in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections and the Massachusetts Senate race have a number of them running scared, in much the same way that the party's poor performance in 1978 helped propel Sen. Edward M. Kennedy forward to challenge incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980.

The chatter has increased in recent days about Clinton leaving the cabinet sometime in the first term, likely over some matter of principle, so that she can position herself to challenge Obama in 2012. Perhaps it is just wishful thinking on the part of those Democrats who have already grown tired of Obama. What is true is that Clinton can still mobilize the political infrastructure necessary to mount an effective challenge to the sitting president. A primary challenge against a sitting president whose approval numbers are above 50 percent and one mounted against an incumbent who is below 50 percent are two very different things, a fact of which the Clinton political team is surely aware.
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Old 01-28-2010, 08:44 PM   #70
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There couldn't be less material in there if you tried, SG. I mean, lord.

The one piece of actual evidence he has is Clinton's own words, which completely deflate his argument.

Listen, I don't care. If you guys want to follow this ridiculous strand, go for it.

But until someone takes me up on my bet, it's just grab ass. That's all it is.
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Old 01-28-2010, 09:02 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
There couldn't be less material in there if you tried, SG. I mean, lord.

The one piece of actual evidence he has is Clinton's own words, which completely deflate his argument.

Listen, I don't care. If you guys want to follow this ridiculous strand, go for it.

But until someone takes me up on my bet, it's just grab ass. That's all it is.
I wasn't using it as proof nor even evidence. I just found the timing interesting. I still haven't seen anyone predict it. It just seems more likely to happen this time than any time in my life. Hillary wants to be president, and she isn't one to table her goals. She knows that she becomes less electable every year. It could get interesting.
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Old 01-28-2010, 09:28 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
There couldn't be less material in there if you tried, SG. I mean, lord.

The one piece of actual evidence he has is Clinton's own words, which completely deflate his argument.

Listen, I don't care. If you guys want to follow this ridiculous strand, go for it.

But until someone takes me up on my bet, it's just grab ass. That's all it is.
I think it's unlikely, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as you do. Out of our last 5 presidents, not counting Obama, 2 of them had significant primary challenges after their first term (Kennedy in 80 and Buchanan in 92). Both lost their re-election bid. Even if you discount Buchanan, that's a 20% challenge rate. And if Obama remains as mired in difficulty as he is today, he'll be a lot more like Carter than Reagan, Clinton or either Bush when it comes time to decide whether to mount a challenge. I think a 20% chance that someone like Hillary or Howard Dean challenges Obama is a reasonable estimate.
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Old 01-28-2010, 09:30 PM   #73
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If Direkshun is so sure that it won't happen, why did he start the thread?
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Old 01-28-2010, 10:11 PM   #74
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If Direkshun is so sure that it won't happen, why did he start the thread?
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Old 01-28-2010, 10:22 PM   #75
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I think it's unlikely, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as you do. Out of our last 5 presidents, not counting Obama, 2 of them had significant primary challenges after their first term (Kennedy in 80 and Buchanan in 92).
Don't forget one of the strongest challenges of all to an incumbent President by a member of his own party: Ronald Reagan almost took the nomination away from Gerald Ford in 1976. In fact, the race was so close the undecided delegates wound up deciding it at the convention.

That makes it 3 out of the last 6 Presidents before Obama, a 50% rate. I'm not willing to bet on it with Direkshun, but it's foolish of him to assert that there is no way it could happen. It could.
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