Elections obama Losing Independent's Support

vailpass · 08-16-2010, 01:49 PM

WASHINGTON — Independents who embraced President Barack Obama's call for change in 2008 are ready for a shift again, and that is worrisome for Democrats.

Only 32 percent of those citing no allegiance to either major party say they want Democrats to keep control of Congress in November's elections, according to combined results of Associated Press-GfK polls earlier this year.

That is way down from the 52 percent of independents who backed Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain two years ago, and the 49-percent-to-41-percent edge by which they preferred Democratic candidates for the House in that election, according to exit polls of voters.

Independents voice especially strong concerns about the economy, with nine in every 10 calling it a top problem and no other issue coming close, the analysis of the AP-GfK polls shows. Although Democrats and Republicans rank the economy the No. 1 problem in similar numbers, they are nearly as worried about their No. 2 issues, health care for Democrats and terrorism for Republicans.

Ominously for Democrats, independents trust Republicans more on the economy by a modest but telling 42 percent to 36 percent.

That is bad news for the party that controls the White House and Congress at a time of near 10 percent unemployment and a slow economic recovery.

"People are just struggling. They need a job, but there's nowhere to get a job," said unaffiliated voter Leilani Buxman, 55, of Greeley.

Of Obama, she said, "It seems like he talks but he doesn't do anything about it."

Both parties court independents for obvious reasons. Besides their sheer number — four in every 10 described themselves as independents in combined AP-GfK polling for April, May and June — they are a crucial swing group.

To try winning them over, Republicans say they will contrast Obama's campaign promises of change with the huge spending programs he has approved. Democrats say they will warn independents that a GOP victory will revive that party's efforts to cut taxes for the rich and transform Social Security into risky private investment accounts.

Targeting independents is tricky, though, because the makeup of independents evolves over time. While some are conservatives dissatisfied with Republicans, similar numbers are disillusioned Democrats, underscoring a frustration with the party in power.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The polls
Data from the AP-GfK polls combines surveys conducted April 7-12, May 7-11 and June 9-14 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications on randomly generated land-line and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 3,047 adults. Results were weighted to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population's makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. The weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the combined sample cause results to vary by more than plus or minus 2.4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all U.S. adults were polled. Other sources of potential error in polls include wording and order of questions. The exit poll for the November 2008 presidential election was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for AP and television networks in 300 precincts nationally.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_15789763

The Mad Crapper · 08-16-2010, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vailpass

Of Obama, she said, "It seems like he talks but he doesn't do anything about it."

Sure he does, he makes it worse.

Hopey Change™

Barack Hussein Obama!

Mmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

vailpass · 08-16-2010, 04:01 PM

I hope all of this plays out in the voting booths.

greg63 · 08-17-2010, 09:50 PM

John Q. Citizen can no longer change anything at the voting booth.

alnorth · 08-17-2010, 10:43 PM

not really surprised. The "independent voter" (tm) is fickle and unreliable.

They pretty much vote based on the economy, whether the president/congress had anything to do with it or not, with some exceptions for extreme events. (economy good but we're in the middle of a huge scandal or you took us into a now-very-unpopular war)

I'm more interested in increasing the numbers of registered republicans and/or people who self-identify as economic conservatives. They wont desert you as soon as some silly cluster of economic data points blip the other way at the wrong time.

HonestChieffan · 08-18-2010, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greg63

John Q. Citizen can no longer change anything at the voting booth.

Thats pretty stupid.

healthpellets · 08-18-2010, 05:11 PM

i am an independent.

obama has lost my support.

this article is true.

greg63 · 08-18-2010, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Thats pretty stupid.

You're right taking the time to actually vote in the last twenty years has made a huge difference.

HonestChieffan · 08-18-2010, 05:23 PM

Sure has for every person who was elected. You should be ashamed of yourself.

greg63 · 08-18-2010, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Sure has for every person who was elected. You should be ashamed of yourself.

My point exactly, thank you for making it.

vailpass · 08-18-2010, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greg63

You're right taking the time to actually vote in the last twenty years has made a huge difference.

The elections haven't turned out the way they have because the majority voted, they have turned out that way because we didn't.
Don't give up.
Vote.

greg63 · 08-18-2010, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vailpass

The elections haven't turned out the way they have because the majority voted, they have turned out that way because we didn't.
Don't give up.
Vote.

I wish I could believe that bud.

I used to be one these people that actually believed that voting made a difference.

**Griswald** · 08-18-2010, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greg63

I wish I could believe that bud.

I used to be one these people that actually believed that voting made a difference.

I live in New Jersey. New Jersey would elect George McGovern for president if he ran every 4 years..lol..and I still vote

greg63 · 08-18-2010, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D2112

I live in New Jersey. New Jersey would elect George McGovern for president if he ran every 4 years..lol..and I still vote

I respect that bud.

**DoucheMcCloud** · 08-18-2010, 10:24 PM

This is bogus.

I'm a registered Independent and while I'm fairly unhappy with Obama's performance, if the Republicans put up a piece of shit like Sarah Palin, I'd vote for Obama.

It's all about who he'll face in two-plus years and what's happened in between, not now.

08-16-2010, 01:49 PM
vailpass Yah Mules! Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $196425	obama Losing Independent's Support WASHINGTON — Independents who embraced President Barack Obama's call for change in 2008 are ready for a shift again, and that is worrisome for Democrats. Only 32 percent of those citing no allegiance to either major party say they want Democrats to keep control of Congress in November's elections, according to combined results of Associated Press-GfK polls earlier this year. That is way down from the 52 percent of independents who backed Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain two years ago, and the 49-percent-to-41-percent edge by which they preferred Democratic candidates for the House in that election, according to exit polls of voters. Independents voice especially strong concerns about the economy, with nine in every 10 calling it a top problem and no other issue coming close, the analysis of the AP-GfK polls shows. Although Democrats and Republicans rank the economy the No. 1 problem in similar numbers, they are nearly as worried about their No. 2 issues, health care for Democrats and terrorism for Republicans. Ominously for Democrats, independents trust Republicans more on the economy by a modest but telling 42 percent to 36 percent. That is bad news for the party that controls the White House and Congress at a time of near 10 percent unemployment and a slow economic recovery. "People are just struggling. They need a job, but there's nowhere to get a job," said unaffiliated voter Leilani Buxman, 55, of Greeley. Of Obama, she said, "It seems like he talks but he doesn't do anything about it." Both parties court independents for obvious reasons. Besides their sheer number — four in every 10 described themselves as independents in combined AP-GfK polling for April, May and June — they are a crucial swing group. To try winning them over, Republicans say they will contrast Obama's campaign promises of change with the huge spending programs he has approved. Democrats say they will warn independents that a GOP victory will revive that party's efforts to cut taxes for the rich and transform Social Security into risky private investment accounts. Targeting independents is tricky, though, because the makeup of independents evolves over time. While some are conservatives dissatisfied with Republicans, similar numbers are disillusioned Democrats, underscoring a frustration with the party in power. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The polls Data from the AP-GfK polls combines surveys conducted April 7-12, May 7-11 and June 9-14 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications on randomly generated land-line and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 3,047 adults. Results were weighted to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population's makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. The weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the combined sample cause results to vary by more than plus or minus 2.4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all U.S. adults were polled. Other sources of potential error in polls include wording and order of questions. The exit poll for the November 2008 presidential election was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for AP and television networks in 300 precincts nationally. http://www.denverpost.com/ci_15789763
Posts: 30,816

08-16-2010, 04:01 PM	#3
vailpass Yah Mules! Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $196425	I hope all of this plays out in the voting booths.
Posts: 30,816

08-17-2010, 09:50 PM	#4
greg63 Homer go crazy!!! Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: SE Kansas Casino cash: $13497	John Q. Citizen can no longer change anything at the voting booth. __________________
Posts: 16,944

08-17-2010, 10:43 PM	#5
alnorth MVP Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Iowania Casino cash: $12370494	not really surprised. The "independent voter" (tm) is fickle and unreliable. They pretty much vote based on the economy, whether the president/congress had anything to do with it or not, with some exceptions for extreme events. (economy good but we're in the middle of a huge scandal or you took us into a now-very-unpopular war) I'm more interested in increasing the numbers of registered republicans and/or people who self-identify as economic conservatives. They wont desert you as soon as some silly cluster of economic data points blip the other way at the wrong time. __________________ <WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that. <Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 21,977

08-18-2010, 05:23 PM	#9
HonestChieffan Hoffa called me an SOB Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the Country in MO Casino cash: $1220449	Sure has for every person who was elected. You should be ashamed of yourself. __________________ "The best time to sell peanuts is when the circus is in town."
Posts: 21,900

08-18-2010, 10:24 PM	#15
DoucheMcCloud Band Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $10099614	This is bogus. I'm a registered Independent and while I'm fairly unhappy with Obama's performance, if the Republicans put up a piece of shit like Sarah Palin, I'd vote for Obama. It's all about who he'll face in two-plus years and what's happened in between, not now.
Posts: 42,304

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