Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-25-2010, 11:45 PM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
MVP
 
alnorth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $8647
This is getting ugly for the Democrats

Not sure if there's much to discuss or debate, I just wanted to comment on the coming election. One of my favorite sites is the Cook political report.

http://cookpolitical.com/

I hadn't checked it for a few weeks, but he got my attention when he recently moved the 3rd congressional district of Iowa (my district, Des Moines) from Likely Dem all the way up to a pure toss-up. This is a nice little microcosm of what may happen in November, so I'll briefly talk about it.

Leonard Boswell has been the representative here forever (since 1997), and he has been very popular in past elections. When Bush defeated Gore, he won re-election by 29 points. In the 4 elections since, it has been closer, but he still won by 8, 10, 5 (I remember that one, he drew a very tough and popular republican opponent), and 14 points. This year he's up against some random run-of-the-mill state senator, looks like a nice qualified guy who isn't completely nuts, but he's the kind of Republican that Boswell handled easily in prior years. He is in serious danger of losing this one.

The republicans need to grab 39 seats in the house to gain control, which even though it is normally hard, I think most of us sort of expect that. However, where before the predictions were a narrow GOP seat advantage or maybe a couple seat Pelosi majority at worst, now there's an outside chance of a massive win way more than 1994 to give the GOP a decent seat lead.

Ignoring Safe seats, Cook has 44 uncompetitive seats that are still close enough to keep an eye on. The dems are defending 34 of them, and 4 of those are dem seats that have already flipped all the way to non-competitive "likely GOP". There are 76 seats that are leaners and toss-ups. Democrats are defending 68 of them, republicans only 8. The safe seats are roughly even (GOP has 161, Dems 154)

Hell, even Charles Djou in Hawaii is a toss-up. remember him? Special election in Obama's vacation home district, 3-way race, he got fewer votes than the two democrats who split the vote, so everyone pretty much said "have fun with your short vacation in D.C., dont get too comfortable because you can't win in this district!" It is now getting so bad for the dems, Cook thinks he actually has a chance of winning a full term.

Then you look at the Senate and you have toss-ups all over the place. Barbara Boxer could lose. Reid could lose (though I still think Angle blows it) Russ Feingold in WI was moved all the way from safe dem to toss-up. It is even getting interesting in Connecticut, where I assume the GOP candidate (former WWE CEO Linda McMahan) will probably run and have run against her some of the most entertaining commercials in the country. There are enough senate seats in play or already likely GOP takeovers where they could afford to lose a couple. If they run most of the table we'll have a split senate or 1-2 vote GOP majority, which was unthinkable a few months ago.
Posts: 26,636
alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2010, 02:49 AM   #2
Chief Henry Chief Henry is offline
MVP
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: IOWA
Casino cash: $5010
Boswell started out being an "aw shucks" "daggummit" hayshaker type of a politician.

It didn't take him long to vote almost identical to Iowa's liberal US Senator Tom Harkin.
I'm guessing Harkin took him aside swiftly and told him exactly what he had to do.
__________________
On January 3rd, 2007 the unemployment rate was 4.60% with a RECORD 52 months of JOBS growth and the GDP was 3.50%. January 3rd, 2007 is also the day Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi took over the House and the US Senate.
Posts: 8,325
Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Chief Henry must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 07:26 AM   #3
The Mad Crapper The Mad Crapper is offline
Banned
 

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sea of Green 23.4
Casino cash: $5000
The poll stealing the headlines this morning is from Gallup, and for good reason: it gives the Republicans a whopping 10-point lead on the generic ballot. This is, in fact, an all-time record for the Republicans: Gallup has been conducting this survey for almost 70 years, and Republicans have never managed to have quite that large of an edge before.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ts-new-normal/
Posts: 8,657
The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 04:20 PM   #4
Brainiac Brainiac is offline
Veteran
 
Brainiac's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Lenexa, KS
Casino cash: $5985
The Democrats are going to get crushed in November.
Posts: 4,287
Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 04:43 PM   #5
HerculesRockefell HerculesRockefell is offline
Starter
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $5000
Someone might want to let Charlie Cook know that the Arkansas Senate seat isn't a toss up. Boozman's RCP average is +28 and it's been April since there's been a poll where he led Blanche Lincoln by only single digits.

That race is over.

I know there's also people who follow the polling that question some of Cook's toss-ups in the House, because the R candidates are consistently polling ahead by 5 and sometime even 10 points. Those aren't pure toss-ups, those become leans.
Posts: 570
HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 04:55 PM   #6
alnorth alnorth is offline
MVP
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $8647
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerculesRockefell View Post
Someone might want to let Charlie Cook know that the Arkansas Senate seat isn't a toss up. Boozman's RCP average is +28 and it's been April since there's been a poll where he led Blanche Lincoln by only single digits.

That race is over.

I know there's also people who follow the polling that question some of Cook's toss-ups in the House, because the R candidates are consistently polling ahead by 5 and sometime even 10 points. Those aren't pure toss-ups, those become leans.
You probably don't understand what Cook is trying to do. Most polls that you are probably used to are trying to answer the question "who would win right now?" He's trying to figure out who will win in November. If a challenger is up by 5 now, you cant really call that a lean his way because the commercials haven't even hit yet. He tends to be more reactive when it gets closer to election day because then "who will win now" is pretty close to "who will win in november", but there's still over a couple months left and most candidates haven't really begun to spend money. He does not like to "change his mind" at all by calling it one way too early then being forced to take it back to toss up when it tightens. When Cook says you are toast, then you are toast.

So given that background and how cautious he is, when it looks bad for the dems 2 months ahead of the elections it is a total freaking disaster for them.
__________________
<WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that.
<Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 26,636
alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 05:28 PM   #7
HerculesRockefell HerculesRockefell is offline
Starter
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $5000
Individual polls are snapshots of who would win if the election were held today. Multiple polls looked at over a period of time shows trends.

That's why you see Patty Murray and Russ Feingold have been moved into the "Toss Up" category. Both were thought to be safe, even in this cycle, but current polling has caused Cook to rate both races as toss ups.

Lincoln has been dead in the water for nearly 6 months. That race isn't a toss up. The national committees aren't throwing money into it and you aren't going to see very many polls either because it's a waste of money. Anyone who follows politics knows she's gone, and if current polling numbers are reflective of election day, it will go down as one of the biggest losses ever by a sitting Senator.

And like I said with the trends, if there's a month or 6 weeks of polling that shows Candidate A not only increasing his lead, but consistently holding a 5-10 pt lead over Candidate B, that race is a lean. Labor Day might be when the majority of voters get serious, but at the same time, if Candidate B is an incumbent whose voters know him, there's not much he can do at this point to introduce himself to his constituents. They either know and like him, or they don't.

Cook is trying to sell a product, it's a disservice to those who pay him for it to have races that don't currently look that close rated as "Toss Ups" simply because what might be a healthy lead at this point for one candidate might tighten around election day.
Posts: 570
HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.HerculesRockefell is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2010, 05:52 PM   #8
alnorth alnorth is offline
MVP
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $8647
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerculesRockefell View Post
Cook is trying to sell a product, it's a disservice to those who pay him for it to have races that don't currently look that close rated as "Toss Ups" simply because what might be a healthy lead at this point for one candidate might tighten around election day.
It is a disservice to people who want snapshots if the election is hypothetically held today. I'll agree with you that he's being a little too careful on Arkansas, but aside from that, I'm just not going to get excited about a challenger holding a small lead for two different polls in 3 months. (which is often the case with house races, they dont get polled that often, and they really dont spend money until October)
__________________
<WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that.
<Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 26,636
alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.alnorth 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2010, 05:57 AM   #9
The Mad Crapper The Mad Crapper is offline
Banned
 

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sea of Green 23.4
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
The Democrats are going to get crushed in November.
They walked in lockstep over a cliff with Pelosi, B.O. and Reid.

The stimulus was a porkfest and a massive waste of a trillion dollars; they rammed a healthcare bill down the throats of a constituency who overwhelmingly said no; real unemployment is at 17%, and B.O. and Madame Michelle party like rock stars.

Shame on them and may they all burn in Hell.
Posts: 8,657
The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2010, 06:33 AM   #10
Calcountry Calcountry is offline
Shoot the tube
 
Calcountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Where I am
Casino cash: $5120
I told you so.
__________________
Amerika, Amerika, I shed my grace on Thee.
Posts: 26,824
Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2010, 04:21 PM   #11
Bwana Bwana is offline
GONE FISHING
 
Bwana's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Billings, Montana
Casino cash: $6422
*SNICKER*
Posts: 47,470
Bwana has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2010, 04:27 PM   #12
Calcountry Calcountry is offline
Shoot the tube
 
Calcountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Where I am
Casino cash: $5120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
*SNICKER*
Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.
__________________
Amerika, Amerika, I shed my grace on Thee.
Posts: 26,824
Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.Calcountry would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2010, 06:09 PM   #13
Bwana Bwana is offline
GONE FISHING
 
Bwana's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Billings, Montana
Casino cash: $6422
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.
Yeah, it can't come soon enough.
Posts: 47,470
Bwana has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2010, 07:08 AM   #14
The Mad Crapper The Mad Crapper is offline
Banned
 

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sea of Green 23.4
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.
After the R's take back congress, within 24 hours all the moonbats will be complaining about how bad the economy is after spending the past two years telling everybody to "give B.O. time".

Silly moonbats.
Posts: 8,657
The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.The Mad Crapper would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2010, 09:50 AM   #15
ROYC75 ROYC75 is online now
Time For Your Wake Up Call !!!
 
ROYC75's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Barn Yard
Casino cash: $3842
I wish it was November, right now.

Then skip 2011, go right to 2012.
Posts: 27,131
ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.ROYC75 wants to die in a aids tree fire.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.