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Old 10-15-2010, 10:46 AM  
Hammock Parties Hammock Parties is offline
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Football Outsiders has more good news for Mark Castle

On The Chiefs and Strength of Schedule

Quote:
Something I discovered last night -- Look at the ranks in pass defense DVOA for the Chiefs' next five opponents:

- Week 6: Houston (31st)
- Week 7: Jacksonville (30)
- Week 8: Buffalo (32)
- Week 9: Oakland (29)
- Week 10: Denver (28)


It doesn't get too much better after that, either. They follow that with Arizona (20th), Seattle (19th), and Denver again (28th) before finally facing a pass defense that currently rates as above-average, San Diego (second).

Of course, the Broncos could get a lot better between now and Week 10. Any of these defenses could improve. But at the moment, it sure looks like Matt Cassel and company have an incredible slate of matchups ahead of them.

Now, the big question: Can a Chiefs passing offense that has looked dysfunctional at best take advantage of these opportunities? Let's go back to the fantasy matchups research that we published in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, but with updated data.

It's difficult to plug in pass defenses quite as bad as Buffalo or Houston -- both teams have pass defense DVOAs above 40%, and only one team in DVOA history (the 2009 Lions) hit that rate. Let's estimate that these teams will end up with pass defense DVOA figures in the bottom ten percent of the league. That would mean that they'd end up with a pass defense DVOA higher than 22.4%. We'll use teams with that level of performance as the baseline.

At the moment, the Chiefs have a 12.8% passing DVOA, which is good for 18th in the league. Let's assume for a moment that they're actually playing at a level worse than that; we'll say that their actual performance is between the 20th and 40th percentile of teams. That would be a range of pass offenses with a DVOA between -11.2% and 2.1%.

In the DVOA Era, there have been 168 starts with that level of pass offense versus that level of pass defense. In those games, starters have gone 19-of-31 for 221 yards with 1.4 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. Throw in an average of 11 rushing yards, 0.1 rushing touchdowns, and half a fumble lost, and you end up with an average of 16.5 fantasy points. On average, that's the 13th-best quarterback performance of the week.

Does that make Cassel a quarterback who's suddenly going to engender MVP votes? No. But he should be a worthwhile starter over the next few weeks for fantasy teams that need a quarterback.
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Old 10-15-2010, 10:51 AM   #2
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Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.
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Old 10-15-2010, 10:53 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman View Post
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.
This.

Houston's pass D is going to get fixed this week.
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Old 10-15-2010, 10:55 AM   #4
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Does this mean we're soon going to be bombarded with stories about how Matt Cassel has "developed'?
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Old 10-15-2010, 10:56 AM   #5
raybec 4 raybec 4 is offline
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Well on the third Sunday of any month that ends in R the Chiefs passing offense is ranked 4th among teams with a QB who attempts less than 40 passes while only getting sacked once and wearing a red jersey.
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Old 10-15-2010, 10:57 AM   #6
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Quote:
In those games, starters have gone 19-of-31 for 221 yards with 1.4 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions.
x5

= 95-155, 1,105 yards, 7 TD, 3.5 INT

+ Cassel's current stats

= 58.62 %, 1,755 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT

=

83.42 RATING


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Old 10-15-2010, 11:13 AM   #7
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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I've said all along he's gonna end up somewhere around 18 TDs with 12 INTs and about 3000 yards which will allow the delusional horde of ****tards to claim he's developing.

After all, it only took until he was 36 for Rich Gannon to become a franchise system QB.
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:20 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
I've said all along he's gonna end up somewhere around 18 TDs with 12 INTs and about 3000 yards which will allow the delusional horde of ****tards to claim he's developing.
And so 'Hamas' watched the next five games with baited breath, silently praying Cassel would not complete the journey to the land of mediocrity. For therein lay the horde of ****tard True Fans, waiting to welcome their savior and messiah.

Should he make the journey, countless first-round playoff losses await.
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:25 AM   #9
4th and Long 4th and Long is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman View Post
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.
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4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.4th and Long threw an interception on a screen pass.
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:31 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4th and Long View Post
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.
I said that the dropped pass in the end zone by Bowe is inexcusable, as was the pass on the next play.

But the fact still remains, a QB has to come back and make plays after those kinds of mistakes.

He can't let those get inside his head, and until we have a QB that has amnesia, so to speak, we are going to have games from our QB like the last one.

Did Cassel play horribly?

No.

But did he do enough to lead this team in that game?
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:38 AM   #11
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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Are we going to adjust for miracle catches and drops around the league? What about dropped ints?
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:40 AM   #12
OnTheWarpath15 OnTheWarpath15 is offline
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Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
Are we going to adjust for miracle catches and drops around the league? What about dropped ints?
No shit.

Let's take out both of Moeaki's TD's and take a look at the numbers.
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Old 10-15-2010, 11:55 AM   #13
MMXcalibur MMXcalibur is offline
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We're getting closer and closer to going from providing "career day offenses" to "career day defenses".
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Old 10-15-2010, 01:24 PM   #14
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Cassel will be a probowler after facing those D's !




















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Old 10-15-2010, 01:24 PM   #15
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