Weekly Claims Soar as Job Market Recovery Turns Sour

[petegz28]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42912580

[Amnorix]

Surprising. I have been hearing that the private sector workforce is stretched about as thin as it can go, with companies mostly maxing out their workforce's productivity capability. To do anything more, they're going to have little choice but to hire.

Unfortunately, the soft job market and the ongoing weakness in real estate (which is no doubt going to be protracted) is resulting in the economy just sliding along at break-even. I had expected to see (personally) more transactional activity than I have been, but that hasn't happened either.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Surprising. I have been hearing that the private sector workforce is stretched about as thin as it can go, with companies mostly maxing out their workforce's productivity capability. To do anything more, they're going to have little choice but to hire.

Unfortunately, the soft job market and the ongoing weakness in real estate (which is no doubt going to be protracted) is resulting in the economy just sliding along at break-even. I had expected to see (personally) more transactional activity than I have been, but that hasn't happened either.

The Fed is going to have to pick its poison, higher interest rates or higher costs of goods.

The increased costs of goods is going to really start hitting a company's bottom line as people are cutting back even more now with higher food and gas costs.

If the Fed would get off their weak $ mantra things would be a lot better. I think at this point the country can deal with higher interest rates easier than they can higher food and energy costs.

[jiveturkey]

I'm currently recruiting for a fortune 500 company and they are constantly making changes to their workforce in the form of "optimization". This has lead to a huge increase in turnover because American's (most) don't want to work like the Japanese.

So now the big push is to reduce turnover. When your workforce is balancing on a knife blade they're pushed much further when 10% of their team leaves every month. The opening causes more work for those that stay. The training costs money and increases the work load and both of those lead to more people leaving. It trickles all the way up to Sr Management.

A vicious circle. The stock is doing quite well though.

[phisherman]

i'll take the higher interest rates.

[Saul Good]

I would prefer higher interest rates, but I've got 4.5% on my house for the next 29 years and have. No plans to move. I'm not excited about the idea of my savings being inflated away, but I don't see a viable alternative from a policy standpoint.

[LOCOChief]

Higher rates are like higher gas prices. Gas prices effect you more than just at the pump, higher rates effect more than just your monthly mort pymnt.

just sayin

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The Fed is going to have to pick its poison, higher interest rates or higher costs of goods.

The increased costs of goods is going to really start hitting a company's bottom line as people are cutting back even more now with higher food and gas costs.

If the Fed would get off their weak $ mantra things would be a lot better. I think at this point the country can deal with higher interest rates easier than they can higher food and energy costs.

People alot smarter than both of us, who make alot mroe than both of us, do nothing all day but decide these kinds of things.

Ballsy of you to know what's better than a group of the best economists in the country...

(nobody liked Volcker when he choked the shit out of the economy to get things right again either)

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I would prefer higher interest rates, but I've got 4.5% on my house for the next 29 years and have. No plans to move. I'm not excited about the idea of my savings being inflated away, but I don't see a viable alternative from a policy standpoint.

If your debt on the house is higher than your savings, then inflation is a good thing for you. It might be inflating away your savings, but it's also effectively inflating away your debt.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

If your debt on the house is higher than your savings, then inflation is a good thing for you. It might be inflating away your savings, but it's also effectively inflating away your debt.

That's not entirely true because it doesn't take my income into account. Unless my income keeps pace with inflation (plus whatever my income increases would have been), that must also be taken into account as a negative as well.

[JimBaker48.8]

Originally Posted by phisherman

i'll take the higher interest rates.

But no doubt that would torpedo any hope of a residential Real Estate recovery, not that there's much optimism about that anyway.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

People alot smarter than both of us, who make alot mroe than both of us, do nothing all day but decide these kinds of things.

Ballsy of you to know what's better than a group of the best economists in the country...

(nobody liked Volcker when he choked the shit out of the economy to get things right again either)

Yeah it is and I am right. People aren't making dick on their savings, particularly fixed income folks but yet they are paying higher prices for gas and food. It's pretty ****ing simple. The Fed knows WTF it is doing..it is bleeding this country dry with the overprinting of money and unnaturally low interest rates leaving anyone who wants to make any kind of interest on their money to go into stocks or riskier investments where they will inevitbley burst the bubble to get their big payoff.

And for the record, a lot of the economists I have heard over the last so many years, including The Ben Bernank, have been dead wrong or Johny Come Lately's.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by JimBaker48.8

But no doubt that would torpedo any hope of a residential Real Estate recovery, not that there's much optimism about that anyway.

Actually it wouldn't torpedo it at all. It might mean you have to buy a $250k house instead of a $300k house. A it will keep the bad credit people out of the market which is what caused a lot of this in the first place.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

That's not entirely true because it doesn't take my income into account. Unless my income keeps pace with inflation (plus whatever my income increases would have been), that must also be taken into account as a negative as well.

Correct. I was assuming that income keeps pace with inflation, which is usually (but certainly not always) the case.

The people that get killed in an inflationary environment (but not hyperinflation, fo course, when everyone gets killed) are those living on fixed incomes.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Actually it wouldn't torpedo it at all. It might mean you have to buy a $250k house instead of a $300k house. A it will keep the bad credit people out of the market which is what caused a lot of this in the first place.

I'd stick to your day job. Whatever it is, I'm sure it's not Ph.D in economics.