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Old 07-29-2011, 10:43 AM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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ObamaNomics FAIL: Q2 GDP Comes In At Only 1.3%, Q1 Revised Down To A Scant 0.4%…

Fail at every level.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The economy expanded at meager 1.3 percent annual rate in the spring after scarcely growing at all in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The combined growth for the first six months of the year was the weakest since the recession ended two years ago. The government revised the January-March figures to show just 0.4 percent growth — down sharply from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent.

“These numbers are extremely bad,” said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “The momentum in the economy is clearly very weak.”

The sharp slowdown means the economy will likely grow this year at a weaker pace than last year. Economists don’t expect growth to pick up enough in the second half of the year to lower the unemployment rate, which rose to 9.2 percent last month.
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:20 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
This shouldn't be a surprise for anyone. I've been saying that we have a strong chance for a double dip. I was a little early on the second dip but it appears we're headed back to a slight recession.

That being said after financial crises this is your typical recovery (small sample of occurences but almost all are the same check Reinhardt and Rogoff's paper on the subject).
We never escaped the first one. The government pumped in a couple trillion dollars and that inflated the economy artificially for a few quarters but it wasn't sustainable. Now it is all a matter of Obama coming up with a way to blame it on the GOP, even though it started way before the GOP had a chance to do anything meaningful -- it was baked in and Obama is terrified that the public finally figures it out.
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:24 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Your long response has nothing to do with my post as far as I can tell.
It has something to do with it as you claimed it had benefited us economically. ( Context there was an economic benefit as opposed to winning a war benefit). You missed the connection. I wasn't commenting on the Broken Window fallacy aspect, as I did the day before to Donger, since that applies to Europe more. ( I mean did window manufactures make new windows for Europe or was it done there? I don't know. I thought we loaned money mainly.) It also wasn't just posted for you alone but donger, in one post because I had to leave and didn't have time to elaborate.
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:36 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Yes.

Tax cuts don't cost anything first of all. Unless you believe that all revenue is the property of the US Government (or you're counting on legislation that hasn't passed).

Secondly, there has been an avalanche of regulation on finance, banking, health care as well as massive deficit spending and economic policy (not all Obama's fault, either, but he hasn't advocated for changing it) that has depressed the value of the dollar and created uncertainty that won't abate until it either starts working (which it won't) or goes away (which won't happen for at least two more years).
I get the uncertainty about ObamaCare or the current debt ceiling debate but if what you are saying is true why when the latest reports of corporate earnings were released companies were making more profit than they have before.

Profits are expected to be 15-20% higher this year compared to last year.

So why aren't they hiring while sitting on $2 trillion dollars worth of cash\profits?
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:42 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I get the uncertainty about ObamaCare or the current debt ceiling debate but if what you are saying is true why when the latest reports of corporate earnings were released companies were making more profit than they have before.

Profits are expected to be 15-20% higher this year compared to last year.

So why aren't they hiring while sitting on $2 trillion dollars worth of cash\profits?
Because they don't know what the cost of each hire will be, what additional taxes the government will drop on them, and if there will be less expensive alternatives overseas. It's not complicated -- just because you make a profit doesn't mean you should spend it wastefully.
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Old 07-29-2011, 03:54 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I get the uncertainty about ObamaCare or the current debt ceiling debate but if what you are saying is true why when the latest reports of corporate earnings were released companies were making more profit than they have before.

Profits are expected to be 15-20% higher this year compared to last year.

So why aren't they hiring while sitting on $2 trillion dollars worth of cash\profits?
Firms wont start investing until its clear that consumer demand is returning. That could be a long time, as consumers have a lot of de-leveraging to do after decades of spending fueled by credit card and housing debt.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:05 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Forward Dante View Post
Firms wont start investing until its clear that consumer demand is returning. That could be a long time, as consumers have a lot of de-leveraging to do after decades of spending fueled by credit card and housing debt.
Business will invest the minute they feel they have a political environment conducive to doing so.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:08 PM   #37
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Business will invest the minute they feel they have a political environment conducive to doing so.
I've seen evidence that policy uncertainty can have a small potential effect on economic growth, but you seem to be arguing that the occupant of the White House is by far the most important factor in a corporation's decision to invest or not. What evidence do you have for that?
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:28 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Forward Dante View Post
Firms wont start investing until its clear that consumer demand is returning. That could be a long time, as consumers have a lot of de-leveraging to do after decades of spending fueled by credit card and housing debt.
Very well put...and I don't agree with you often.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:29 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I get the uncertainty about ObamaCare or the current debt ceiling debate but if what you are saying is true why when the latest reports of corporate earnings were released companies were making more profit than they have before.

Profits are expected to be 15-20% higher this year compared to last year.

So why aren't they hiring while sitting on $2 trillion dollars worth of cash\profits?
Don't be fooled by the earnings games. How this shit isn't considered insider info baffles me, but companies work with the top analysts and guide them to what they want their analyst earnings estimates to be so they can announce that they beat them by a penny or some other ridiculously small amount. (apple is one of the worst at this.)

Profits are doing well but companies have been learning that since the economy sucks they can stick it to a reduced workforce because that workforce doesn't have many options.

I know of several places where they aren't replacing people that leave. They just give the people left more work.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:31 PM   #40
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Firms wont start investing until its clear that consumer demand is returning. That could be a long time, as consumers have a lot of de-leveraging to do after decades of spending fueled by credit card and housing debt.
This is unequivocally true.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:33 PM   #41
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Because they don't know what the cost of each hire will be, what additional taxes the government will drop on them, and if there will be less expensive alternatives overseas. It's not complicated -- just because you make a profit doesn't mean you should spend it wastefully.
This is horseshit. Businesses know what the costs of hires are going to be. They also know that the tax system will not be dramatically changing.
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:34 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by vailpass View Post
Business will invest the minute they feel they have a political environment conducive to doing so.
You don't much about anything do you cletus?
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:37 PM   #43
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Old 07-29-2011, 05:06 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Forward Dante View Post
I've seen evidence that policy uncertainty can have a small potential effect on economic growth, but you seem to be arguing that the occupant of the White House is by far the most important factor in a corporation's decision to invest or not. What evidence do you have for that?
I don't speak for the country (lucky thing for the country). The business owners and investors (mostly small, I don't hang with the Buffets) I know are all stockpiling cash and freezing investment/expansion because of the overall socio/political climate. There is so much uncertainty in what our fed. govt. will or won't do, what they will and won't tax, what impact obamacare will or won't have.
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Old 07-29-2011, 05:07 PM   #45
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This is horseshit. Businesses know what the costs of hires are going to be. They also know that the tax system will not be dramatically changing.
You can tell us what the cost of hires is going to be? You know how the tax structure is going to shake out and can accurately pinpoint the cost of obamacare for each individual business?
Seems like you'd be sitting a little higher if that were the case.
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