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View Poll Results: Who Wins???
Obama will win. No strong Republican challenger. 12 50.00%
Obama's goose is cooked. Republican Perry or Christy or Bachmann will win. 9 37.50%
Gaz will get my vote! 3 12.50%
Voters: 24. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-06-2011, 01:48 PM  
chris chris is offline
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Is Obama "One and Done""? Who will win 2012?

With the S&P's, and others, downgrades...is the economy going to recover in time for the election?

People vote with their pocket books.

Is this the beginning of the end?
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Old 08-06-2011, 01:51 PM   #2
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Scary times, my friends.
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Old 08-06-2011, 01:54 PM   #3
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Old 08-06-2011, 02:28 PM   #4
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Old 08-06-2011, 02:31 PM   #5
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I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.
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Old 08-06-2011, 02:35 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.
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Old 08-06-2011, 02:38 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.


Last edited by orange; 08-06-2011 at 02:46 PM..
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Old 08-06-2011, 02:59 PM   #8
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Quote:
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Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

So this will be a campaign issue in 2012, Obama, like Mondale, will promise to raise your taxes if elected. Do you know how that turned out?
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Old 08-06-2011, 03:15 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.
Obama will be arguing for an extension of the middle/lower class cuts that you mention. The questions are (a) whether or not the Republicans will stick to the all or nothing position and (b) if they do will Obama be able to convince those middle and lower class voters that it's the Republicans who forced their taxes to go up?
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Old 08-06-2011, 03:16 PM   #10
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My money right now would be on Romney. I think this economic environment is tailor-made for his campaign. However, he'll only beat Obama if he can find a way to get the Republican nomination which remains questionable, IMO.
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Old 08-06-2011, 03:26 PM   #11
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I don't see how Obama generates any enthusiasm from his support base for 2012 given how he's conducted himself.

That's also why the Republicans won so many seats in 2010, the people on the left could already see that it was the same old politics as usual from the Dems, so who cares.
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Old 08-06-2011, 03:44 PM   #12
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The only way Obama is going to get a 2nd term is for a 3rd viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring and Obama could win with 41% of the vote.
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Old 08-06-2011, 04:34 PM   #13
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I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.
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Old 08-06-2011, 04:36 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Cannibal View Post
I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.
As much as I like Bachmann, I don't think she has a chance to get the nomination.
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Old 08-06-2011, 04:51 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange View Post
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

My mistake. I don't think it changes the calculus all that much though. It complicates Obama's message a little.

Glad to be corrected in your 10,000th post...
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