General Politics Is Obama "One and Done""? Who will win 2012?

chris · 08-06-2011, 01:48 PM

With the S&P's, and others, downgrades...is the economy going to recover in time for the election?

People vote with their pocket books.

Is this the beginning of the end?

chris · 08-06-2011, 01:51 PM

Scary times, my friends.

SNR · 08-06-2011, 01:54 PM

KILLER_CLOWN · 08-06-2011, 02:28 PM

Rigged Poll, Rigged Thread fails as bad as Obama.

Taco John · 08-06-2011, 02:31 PM

I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.

Calcountry · 08-06-2011, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John

I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.

Half way there, ahhhh living on a prayer, take my hand, we'll make it a swear.

BOHICA!!!. That is what he is going to run on.

orange · 08-06-2011, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

Calcountry · 08-06-2011, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orange

Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

So this will be a campaign issue in 2012, Obama, like Mondale, will promise to raise your taxes if elected. Do you know how that turned out?

**patteeu** · 08-06-2011, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John

I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.

Obama will be arguing for an extension of the middle/lower class cuts that you mention. The questions are (a) whether or not the Republicans will stick to the all or nothing position and (b) if they do will Obama be able to convince those middle and lower class voters that it's the Republicans who forced their taxes to go up?

**patteeu** · 08-06-2011, 03:16 PM

My money right now would be on Romney. I think this economic environment is tailor-made for his campaign. However, he'll only beat Obama if he can find a way to get the Republican nomination which remains questionable, IMO.

**banyon** · 08-06-2011, 03:26 PM

I don't see how Obama generates any enthusiasm from his support base for 2012 given how he's conducted himself.

That's also why the Republicans won so many seats in 2010, the people on the left could already see that it was the same old politics as usual from the Dems, so who cares.

Bewbies · 08-06-2011, 03:44 PM

The only way Obama is going to get a 2nd term is for a 3rd viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring and Obama could win with 41% of the vote.

Cannibal · 08-06-2011, 04:34 PM

I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.

**patteeu** · 08-06-2011, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannibal

I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.

As much as I like Bachmann, I don't think she has a chance to get the nomination.

Taco John · 08-06-2011, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orange

Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

My mistake. I don't think it changes the calculus all that much though. It complicates Obama's message a little.

Glad to be corrected in your 10,000th post...

View Poll Results: Who Wins???
Obama will win. No strong Republican challenger.	12	50.00%
Obama's goose is cooked. Republican Perry or Christy or Bachmann will win.	9	37.50%
Gaz will get my vote!	3	12.50%
Voters: 24. You may not vote on this poll

08-06-2011, 01:48 PM
chris Always Ask "Why" Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Park City; Two Rivers Casino cash: $432	Is Obama "One and Done""? Who will win 2012? With the S&P's, and others, downgrades...is the economy going to recover in time for the election? People vote with their pocket books. Is this the beginning of the end?
Posts: 1,340

08-06-2011, 01:51 PM	#2
chris Always Ask "Why" Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Park City; Two Rivers Casino cash: $432	Scary times, my friends. __________________ Thank God for over-priced Sunday Ticket; salvation for a Chief fan in Utah...plus now Wisconsin.
Posts: 1,340

08-06-2011, 01:54 PM	#3
SNR You're all I have left, Copper Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Where the hell is SNR Casino cash: $4527505
Posts: 46,902

08-06-2011, 02:28 PM	#4
KILLER_CLOWN Be HEALED!!!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Fascist State Casino cash: $11108927	Rigged Poll, Rigged Thread fails as bad as Obama. __________________ "Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father ... And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity." "If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." - Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 19,716

08-06-2011, 02:31 PM	#5
Taco John 12on Paul Join Date: Jun 2001 Casino cash: $10084482	I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago. The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire. So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign. He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment. On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term. __________________ Ehyeh asher ehyeh.
Posts: 49,357

08-06-2011, 03:16 PM	#10
patteeu The 23rd Pillar Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $416271	My money right now would be on Romney. I think this economic environment is tailor-made for his campaign. However, he'll only beat Obama if he can find a way to get the Republican nomination which remains questionable, IMO. __________________ "After voters re-elected an administration that added five trillion dollars to the nation’s debt, left 23 million Americans unemployed, surrendered Iraq to America’s enemy Iran, and enabled the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of the largest country in the Middle East, the one lesson Republicans should agree on is that elections are driven by emotions, not reason." - David Horowitz
Posts: 67,076

08-06-2011, 03:26 PM	#11
banyon Supporter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Dodge City, Kansas Casino cash: $76625	I don't see how Obama generates any enthusiasm from his support base for 2012 given how he's conducted himself. That's also why the Republicans won so many seats in 2010, the people on the left could already see that it was the same old politics as usual from the Dems, so who cares. __________________
Posts: 32,045

08-06-2011, 03:44 PM	#12
Bewbies The "Franchise" - Seriously. Join Date: Apr 2010 Casino cash: $57506	The only way Obama is going to get a 2nd term is for a 3rd viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring and Obama could win with 41% of the vote.
Posts: 5,742

08-06-2011, 04:34 PM	#13
Cannibal I'm wearing a cardboard belt! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Bible Thumping Country Casino cash: $44532	I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.
Posts: 7,506

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