Value of future draft picks

[Old Dog]

How much do YOU devalue future round draft picks?

There are differing trains of though, and I'm curious to see what the general consensus here is.

Some teams are said to discount by a full round, some more, some less.

[Old Dog]

My general thought is that the future pick is devalued by a round with the idea that any future pick would be valued as close to the middle of a given round as possible.....

[cdcox]

I've heard that rule about dropping a round in value for a future pick. Here's why I don't think it is quite right.

1. Suppose I trade my 2nd round pick this year for a 1st round pick next year.
2. In year 2 I have two first round picks and a second round pick. So let's say I use both my first round picks and again trade my 2nd round pick for a first round pick next year.
3. I repeat the year 2 process every year thereafter.

Essentially, I've gained the permenant right to upgrade my 2nd round pick to a first round pick, and it only cost me the 2nd round pick in year 1. Every NFL team would jump on that deal. I think the same would be true for any other two rounds that you choose.

Heck you could build up your 7th round pick into a permenant first round pick for the one time cost of picks in rounds 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.

[Rain Man]

I too have always thought that the rule of thumb of one round per year is a bit generous. I would gladly trade my second-round pick this year for a first next year, and if I was a GM in the NFL I would do it every year. I suspect the reason it doesn't happen is that new GMs want to get off on the best foot possible, and established GMs don't want to defer progress by a year.

[tambaberry]

I think they should be straight up, say you get a first for a 2nd round pick no matter what that 1st pick will be a higher pick then the 2nd rounder was.