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Old 09-11-2011, 01:49 PM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
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The long road to the #1 draft pick

This is going to be very, very hard even with our schedule and as bad as we looked today. First, some numbers.

In the last 20 years the team with the #1 pick went:

0-16: 1
1-15: 6
2-14: 8
3-13: 4
4-12: 1 (3-way tiebreak)
5 wins or better: never

Even if you go 2-14, you only have just a bit better than a 50/50 shot. To really lock it up, the chiefs would need to lose 15 games. Our schedule may be tough, but the AFC West is not, so if KC does not lose their first 5, they will probably screw it up. Realistically, we probably do need to lose our first 5 (which gives us the tiebreak on Buffalo, Detroit, Minnesota, and Indianapolis).

Add on top of this the fact that a division winner getting the #1 pick the next year would be fairly historic. Some more numbers:

Since the AFL-NFL merger (ignoring the strike season and the season before that), there were 244 division winners. Only 1 of them (Houston Oilers in 1994) managed to do it when they went 2-14. A couple others went 3-13 but didn't get the #1 pick. Division winners who suck the next year generally are still good enough to win 4 or 5 games.

Can these 2011 Chiefs make history by becoming the worst defending division champions ever? Is Andrew Luck good enough to even want one of the worst seasons in franchise history?
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