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Old 12-31-2011, 02:52 PM  
alnorth alnorth is online now
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2012 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

2012 Slogan: Our Time

A better, more accurate 2012 Slogan: It is Finally Next Year
(from Great Expectations)

An alternative slogan if you don't like that one: Someone has to win this crappy division
(from alnorth)

With the beginning of a new year, it is time for the 2012 version of the Royals Repository Thread. We've got Hosmer, we've got a 2011-dominating Gordon, we've got Moose, we've got hopefully a killer bullpen, we've got a stereotypical slow slugging DH, we've got easily one of the best defensive shortstops in the AL, we've got a promising catcher in Salvador Perez. Hell, we've got offense and promising prospects galore.

We do not have starting pitching.

Oh yeah, we've also got this:



Get ready for, (as of January 2012 anyway), one of the most confusing puzzles of a baseball season in recent Royals history. Will they suck? Maybe, I don't know. Will we be given a year of 0.500 baseball? Possibly, I don't know. Will they win the division and go to the playoffs for the first time in 27 years? For the first time in a long time, it could happen, I don't know. 92 losses, 92 wins, or anything in between would not surprise a lot of us.

Everything goes here except Gameday threads and really big news. If a giant story breaks, the Royals achieve some awesome milestone, or we sign/lose a highly significant player/coach/mascot/whatever, then it might also deserve its own thread. This being Chiefs Planet, please do not clutter the board with new threads about trivial Royals news or you will only annoy those who come here for just Chiefs football. If you aren't sure and its not a Gameday thread, it goes here.

What sort of stuff often goes here? SPchief explained it well, so I'll just copy that:

Quote:
If you locate something of interest.. ANYTHING.. deals on apparel, best ways in/out of the stadium, giveaways, great stories from this season or from seasons gone by, rumors, trades, anything.... feel free to post it here.

Last edited by alnorth; 06-23-2012 at 10:54 PM..
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Old 04-20-2012, 10:57 PM   #2146
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Old 04-21-2012, 09:58 AM   #2147
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I spent a bit of time this morning trying to look at how bad you have to be in April to give up all hope for the year and just look at going to the ballpark as a meaningless fun way to spend a July evening with nothing on the line.

I know a lot of us have already written off 2012, some before the season started thinking 2013-14 was more realistic, but if one were to clinically examine our record without any prior knowledge that our pitching isn't there yet and we probably have no hope because of that regardless, if you want to overlook that minor detail and still have any hope at all of a flukey comeback with all things being equal, at what point can you let that go? How bad does our April have to be, before "Our Time" becomes "Pour (a beer) Time"?

I looked at every playoff team for the last 10 years, including the teams that would have gotten the 2nd wild card, and have 102 data points. (2 extra because 2 of those years we had a tie for the mythical 2nd wild card) It appears that the point where you begin to tentatively give up hope on May 1st is roughly 5 or 6 below .500, and the point of no return is 7 below .500 or worse. I won't say coming back from 7 under is unprecedented, I only went back 10 years, but it would be firmly in "hasn't happened in a long-ass time" territory.

Games above/below .500 at the end of April - # of playoff teams in the last 10 years.
+15 - 1
+14 - 0
+13 - 0
+12 - 1
+11 - 1
+10 - 4
+9 - 5
+8 - 5
+7 - 10
+6 - 6
+5 - 5
+4 - 6
+3 - 7
+2 - 6
+1 - 7
0 - 6
-1 - 7
-2 - 4
-3 - 5
-4 - 10
-5 - 3
-6 - 3
-7 or worse - 0

Average, +2.5
Average if under .500, -3.2

+5 or better - 37.3%
+2 to +4 - 18.6%
-1 to +1 - 19.6%
-4 to -2 - 18.6%
-5 or worse - 5.9%

I can't explain that strange inexplicable bulge of teams who are 3 or 4 games under .500 but still make the playoffs, but it does give hope that 3 or 4 under is not bad enough to write off a team (again, ignoring our pitching problems and that those 15 teams probably had better pitching) unless they follow it up with a crappy May.

In general, playoff teams that start out 5 or 6 under in April absolutely exploded in 1 or more of the following months (as in, about .750 or so in at least 1 month) and finished strong in September.

However, that is not common, maybe once every other year 1 team will do that. There seems to be at least 2 playoff teams every year that finished April somewhere between 2 and 4 games under.

The Royals have 10 games left in April, and they are in that 7-under no-man's land right now. Obviously if they reel off a 10-game winning streak to finish 3 over, we'll all be excited as hell, people will start climbing back on the bandwagon, and they'll be on the front page of ESPN.

More realistically, I think they need to go about 7-3 in the next 10 games to gain 4 net wins and finish just 3 under. If they just go .500, especially given the tough schedule coming in May, I think our hole will be too deep to get to 88+ wins.
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Old 04-21-2012, 10:10 AM   #2148
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Not that I know my ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to baseball but that's a great post alnorth.
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Old 04-21-2012, 10:15 AM   #2149
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Old 04-21-2012, 10:20 AM   #2150
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Core of this team is signed on for what 4-5 years? Going to be some growing pains that's for sure. I don't think anyone expected them to be at the top this year. I'm still holding out for a .500 season to build upon the following years. I just hope the management doesn't implode the team and trade away pieces that will be needed in the future.
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Old 04-21-2012, 10:21 AM   #2151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
I spent a bit of time this morning trying to look at how bad you have to be in April to give up all hope for the year and just look at going to the ballpark as a meaningless fun way to spend a July evening with nothing on the line.

I know a lot of us have already written off 2012, some before the season started thinking 2013-14 was more realistic, but if one were to clinically examine our record without any prior knowledge that our pitching isn't there yet and we probably have no hope because of that regardless, if you want to overlook that minor detail and still have any hope at all of a flukey comeback with all things being equal, at what point can you let that go? How bad does our April have to be, before "Our Time" becomes "Pour (a beer) Time"?

I looked at every playoff team for the last 10 years, including the teams that would have gotten the 2nd wild card, and have 102 data points. (2 extra because 2 of those years we had a tie for the mythical 2nd wild card) It appears that the point where you begin to tentatively give up hope on May 1st is roughly 5 or 6 below .500, and the point of no return is 7 below .500 or worse. I won't say coming back from 7 under is unprecedented, I only went back 10 years, but it would be firmly in "hasn't happened in a long-ass time" territory.

Games above/below .500 at the end of April - # of playoff teams in the last 10 years.
+15 - 1
+14 - 0
+13 - 0
+12 - 1
+11 - 1
+10 - 4
+9 - 5
+8 - 5
+7 - 10
+6 - 6
+5 - 5
+4 - 6
+3 - 7
+2 - 6
+1 - 7
0 - 6
-1 - 7
-2 - 4
-3 - 5
-4 - 10
-5 - 3
-6 - 3
-7 or worse - 0

Average, +2.5
Average if under .500, -3.2

+5 or better - 37.3%
+2 to +4 - 18.6%
-1 to +1 - 19.6%
-4 to -2 - 18.6%
-5 or worse - 5.9%

I can't explain that strange inexplicable bulge of teams who are 3 or 4 games under .500 but still make the playoffs, but it does give hope that 3 or 4 under is not bad enough to write off a team (again, ignoring our pitching problems and that those 15 teams probably had better pitching) unless they follow it up with a crappy May.

In general, playoff teams that start out 5 or 6 under in April absolutely exploded in 1 or more of the following months (as in, about .750 or so in at least 1 month) and finished strong in September.

However, that is not common, maybe once every other year 1 team will do that. There seems to be at least 2 playoff teams every year that finished April somewhere between 2 and 4 games under.

The Royals have 10 games left in April, and they are in that 7-under no-man's land right now. Obviously if they reel off a 10-game winning streak to finish 3 over, we'll all be excited as hell, people will start climbing back on the bandwagon, and they'll be on the front page of ESPN.

More realistically, I think they need to go about 7-3 in the next 10 games to gain 4 net wins and finish just 3 under. If they just go .500, especially given the tough schedule coming in early May, I think our hole will be too deep to get to 88+ wins.
Great post. I know there's 150 or so left, but it's just tough to retain any hope when it all just looks so familiar. Guess we'll find out shortly what this team has in terms of resiliency.

As far as the pitching goes, at what point does DM just say "**** it" & start throwing up a couple AAA guys to see if they've got it? Or is it a "We don't want them to lose confidence if they suck" thing? Even if Chen & Duffy continue to pitch well, Hochevar turned it around last night & Sanchez evens out, I have zero faith that Mendoza contributes in a positive way. And then there's the pen...

...

And (I know I'm all over the place, sorry) are we going to have any legitimate All Stars? Even if Hos, Moose, Butler, any OFs, etc. start to destroy the ball & play at a really high level immediately, there's a high profile guy blocking all of them. Hosmer's gotta get past Pujols, Texiera, Fielder & Gonzalez. Escobar's gotta get past Jeter (**** him) and Andrus, Moose has A-Rod, Beltre, Longoria. OFs are gunna be tough with Ichiro, Bautista, Hamilton... Not necessarily saying that every player listed is better than the Royal, but in most cases they're at least considerably more well known. Only guy I can see getting in right now is Butler at DH.

Normally, I wouldn't give a flying shit about ASG selections, but with a team that's 10 games out & hosting the damn thing this year, it'll be a little embarrassing (I know, add it to the list) to have just our 1 MLB-mandated selection. Part of the reason I have no interest in going to the ASG (other than the ridiculous prices and that I don't want to have to deal with a bunch of dumbass Yankee/Red Sox fans. Once or twice a year when they're apart is bad enough, I don't need to see them all in the same stadium at the same time.).
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Old 04-21-2012, 12:38 PM   #2152
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So, did anyone see Holland being as shitty as he has been this season? And some people wanted him to close.
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Old 04-21-2012, 01:06 PM   #2153
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So, did anyone see Holland being as shitty as he has been this season? And some people wanted him to close.
Those two sentences contradict each other, no? No one saw Holland falling off like this (reminds me of when Crow started to implode last season). Given his amazing season last year, and given Broxton's geneal Broxtonness, wanting Holland to take over Soria's role made sense.
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:42 PM   #2154
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Speaking of Holland, he's now on the DL with a rib bruise. He's probably been trying to pitch through it. Jeffress gets called up, so yay straight-as-a-button fastballs.
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Old 04-21-2012, 04:25 PM   #2155
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So whos the Royals All Star rep this year?
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Old 04-21-2012, 04:45 PM   #2156
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So whos the Royals All Star rep this year?
Betancourt?
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Old 04-21-2012, 08:58 PM   #2157
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Old 04-21-2012, 09:23 PM   #2158
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Old 04-21-2012, 09:36 PM   #2159
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Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
So whos the Royals All Star rep this year?
Butler.

At least he's respected league-wide and a consistent, good hitter. At this point, he's the only reasonable choice. However, since it will come down to a manager's decision, I bet it would be Crow.
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Old 04-21-2012, 09:54 PM   #2160
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No problem guys, all they have to do is go 7-2 in their next 9 games and there will still be hope. Should be easy.
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