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Old 12-31-2011, 02:52 PM  
alnorth alnorth is online now
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2012 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

2012 Slogan: Our Time

A better, more accurate 2012 Slogan: It is Finally Next Year
(from Great Expectations)

An alternative slogan if you don't like that one: Someone has to win this crappy division
(from alnorth)

With the beginning of a new year, it is time for the 2012 version of the Royals Repository Thread. We've got Hosmer, we've got a 2011-dominating Gordon, we've got Moose, we've got hopefully a killer bullpen, we've got a stereotypical slow slugging DH, we've got easily one of the best defensive shortstops in the AL, we've got a promising catcher in Salvador Perez. Hell, we've got offense and promising prospects galore.

We do not have starting pitching.

Oh yeah, we've also got this:



Get ready for, (as of January 2012 anyway), one of the most confusing puzzles of a baseball season in recent Royals history. Will they suck? Maybe, I don't know. Will we be given a year of 0.500 baseball? Possibly, I don't know. Will they win the division and go to the playoffs for the first time in 27 years? For the first time in a long time, it could happen, I don't know. 92 losses, 92 wins, or anything in between would not surprise a lot of us.

Everything goes here except Gameday threads and really big news. If a giant story breaks, the Royals achieve some awesome milestone, or we sign/lose a highly significant player/coach/mascot/whatever, then it might also deserve its own thread. This being Chiefs Planet, please do not clutter the board with new threads about trivial Royals news or you will only annoy those who come here for just Chiefs football. If you aren't sure and its not a Gameday thread, it goes here.

What sort of stuff often goes here? SPchief explained it well, so I'll just copy that:

Quote:
If you locate something of interest.. ANYTHING.. deals on apparel, best ways in/out of the stadium, giveaways, great stories from this season or from seasons gone by, rumors, trades, anything.... feel free to post it here.

Last edited by alnorth; 06-23-2012 at 10:54 PM..
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:06 AM   #9661
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Just off the top of my head, we wont be (shouldn't be) wasting ~$8MM on Hochevar and Chen in 2014. 2014 is when the new Fox national TV contract will also kick in.
I get it. I'm just mocking our Owner
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:07 AM   #9662
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:10 AM   #9663
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http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/84...-turner-sports

In 2014, ESPN goes from 360MM/yr to 700MM/yr. Fox and Turner will go from 400MM to 800MM per year.

Based on that, we currently get about $25MM from national TV under the current contracts which expire in 2013, which is probably right because that is about what we've been hearing for that portion of the team's income.

Whatever the breakeven is, whether Glass is lying or not, that unknown breakeven number, which may or may not be ~70MM, should increase by almost $25MM/year in 2014. From there, unless we sell more tickets, our income will be stagnant until we can renegotiate our terrible local TV deal in about 8 years, but we should be able to afford a healthy bump in 2014.
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Last edited by alnorth; 12-07-2012 at 09:18 AM..
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:20 AM   #9664
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Regarding local TV, we get about $20MM/year from Fox Sports KC through the end of the decade.

The Cincinnati Reds, baseball's smallest market, figure to get, at worst, $50MM/year with their new deal, and maybe more if they have more than 1 bidder.

We signed our local TV deal at the absolute worst possible time, RIGHT before the value of sports on TV exploded.
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:48 AM   #9665
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:51 AM   #9666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding local TV, we get about $20MM/year from Fox Sports KC through the end of the decade.

The Cincinnati Reds, baseball's smallest market, figure to get, at worst, $50MM/year with their new deal, and maybe more if they have more than 1 bidder.

We signed our local TV deal at the absolute worst possible time, RIGHT before the value of sports on TV exploded.
Would you expect any different from the Royals?
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:55 AM   #9667
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Please do NOT trade Myers. Sign Sanchez, or even Marcum, and we should have the best team(on paper) that I can remember in my lifetime. We absolutely have to replace that French asshole. He is the Matt Cassel of the Royals. Nice guy, but horrible at his job.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:06 AM   #9668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/84...-turner-sports

In 2014, ESPN goes from 360MM/yr to 700MM/yr. Fox and Turner will go from 400MM to 800MM per year.

Based on that, we currently get about $25MM from national TV under the current contracts which expire in 2013, which is probably right because that is about what we've been hearing for that portion of the team's income.

Whatever the breakeven is, whether Glass is lying or not, that unknown breakeven number, which may or may not be ~70MM, should increase by almost $25MM/year in 2014. From there, unless we sell more tickets, our income will be stagnant until we can renegotiate our terrible local TV deal in about 8 years, but we should be able to afford a healthy bump in 2014.

So will the other 29 teams.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:09 AM   #9669
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So will the other 29 teams.
$25 mil is a 30-40% increase to the Royals revenue. Will it be that much for the other 29?
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:12 AM   #9670
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$25 mil is a 30-40% increase to the Royals revenue. Will it be that much for the other 29?
No but nothing is gonna change in terms of signing players only gonna hurt small market teams.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:12 AM   #9671
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I just don't see any way the $70 million/40 man mark is believable as the break even point.

$20 million a year for local TV rights (even though this is a shitty amount)
$25 million a year from current national TV rights
$70 million (low estimate) from revenue sharing. High estimate is $92 million.

I realize it costs a lot of money to run the stadium and pay for the support systems in the minors and latin america, etc.

But they're also selling 1.7 million tickets a year, at an average cost of over $30/ticket. That's an additional $50 million-plus.

The figures just don't make sense.

So screw David Glass.

As for next year, add $25 million to the list above for national TV, and you're looking at a starting revenue (not including advertising, etc) of $190 million.
No reason NOT to take the payroll much, much higher in that case.

Also, coming off the books:

Francoeur: 7.5 million
Chen: 4.5 million
Santana: 12 million
Hochevar: 4.5 million
Getz: 1 million (hopefully, Colon is ready by then to at least be the guy)

So that's about $30 million coming off the books, or a little under 1/2 the payroll.

Guys due increases:
Alex Gordon ($1 million)
Billy Butler (no increase)
Alcides Escobar (no increase)
Jeremy Guthrie ($6 million)
Sal Perez ($500k)

Now, they're going to have some guys qualify for arbitration (Crow, Duffy, Paulino, Hosmer, Holland, possibly Moustakas, Cain), but you're not looking at any other really, really sizable increases. Unless Hosmer goes BEAST MODE and is a super 2.

You're looking at a net gain of AT LEAST $10-15 million on the guys that are walking, because they're almost all going to be replaced by cheap, internal options (Myers in RF, Colon at 2B, Odorizzi or Ventura in SP, Duffy at SP, etc.).

My point: The Royals CERTAINLY have the payroll flexibility to do something splashy, like Anibal Sanchez, go light on year 1, and backload the difference into the 2014 season.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:17 AM   #9672
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I just don't see any way the $70 million/40 man mark is believable as the break even point.

$20 million a year for local TV rights (even though this is a shitty amount)
$25 million a year from current national TV rights
$70 million (low estimate) from revenue sharing. High estimate is $92 million.

I realize it costs a lot of money to run the stadium and pay for the support systems in the minors and latin america, etc.

But they're also selling 1.7 million tickets a year, at an average cost of over $30/ticket. That's an additional $50 million-plus.

The figures just don't make sense.

So screw David Glass.

As for next year, add $25 million to the list above for national TV, and you're looking at a starting revenue (not including advertising, etc) of $190 million.
No reason NOT to take the payroll much, much higher in that case.

Also, coming off the books:

Francoeur: 7.5 million
Chen: 4.5 million
Santana: 12 million
Hochevar: 4.5 million
Getz: 1 million (hopefully, Colon is ready by then to at least be the guy)

So that's about $30 million coming off the books, or a little under 1/2 the payroll.

Guys due increases:
Alex Gordon ($1 million)
Billy Butler (no increase)
Alcides Escobar (no increase)
Jeremy Guthrie ($6 million)
Sal Perez ($500k)

Now, they're going to have some guys qualify for arbitration (Crow, Duffy, Paulino, Hosmer, Holland, possibly Moustakas, Cain), but you're not looking at any other really, really sizable increases. Unless Hosmer goes BEAST MODE and is a super 2.

You're looking at a net gain of AT LEAST $10-15 million on the guys that are walking, because they're almost all going to be replaced by cheap, internal options (Myers in RF, Colon at 2B, Odorizzi or Ventura in SP, Duffy at SP, etc.).

My point: The Royals CERTAINLY have the payroll flexibility to do something splashy, like Anibal Sanchez, go light on year 1, and backload the difference into the 2014 season.
Revenue sharing is gonna suck this year Dodgers are gonna be the only team that goes over the Luxury tax amount.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:27 AM   #9673
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The more I think about it, the more I'd rather have Jurrjens on a bargain deal (assuming a bargain deal could be had) than trading for another starter... It seems that trading for a front line guy is going to cost us nothing short of Myers or Butler and then some candy on top.

At this point, were I the GM I would focus all efforts to get rid of Frenchy. Pawning him off on ANYONE that would take him.

We still have Duffy and Paulino on the mend... Half a season to see what Mendoza, Chen, and Jurrjens can do on the back end of the rotation might not be so bad... If any of those three pan out, then bonus... The odds are that two of those three are going to end up not doing so well, and we'll have options.

I'm just trying to come up with what DM is thinking... and doing so not giving up Myers.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:30 AM   #9674
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And for the record, i don't think Marcum, Sanchez or McCarthy will end up in KC, despite what we all hope for.

GMDM just doesn't have that in him.

Jeez, I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:32 AM   #9675
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Greinke
Jurrjens
McCarthy
A.Sanchez
Santana

TO THE SHIP!!!!!
Get r done Glass!!!
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:37 AM
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