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Old 01-14-2012, 03:28 PM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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The Worst Economic Recovery Since The Great Depression

The Worst Economic Recovery Since The Great Depression


The record of President Obama’s first three years in office is in, and nothing that happens now can go back and change that. What that record shows is that President Obama, with his throwback, old-fashioned, 1970s Keynesian economics, has put America through the worst recovery from a recession since the Great Depression.

The recession started in December, 2007. Go to the website of the National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org) to see the complete history of America’s recessions. What that history reveals is that before this last recession, since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of 10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months.

When President Obama entered office in January, 2009, the recession was already in its 13th month. His responsibility was to manage a timely, robust recovery to get America back on track again. Based on the historical record, that recovery was imminent, within a couple of months or so. Despite widespread fear, nothing fundamental had changed to deprive America of the long term, world-leading prosperity it had enjoyed going back 300 years.



Supposedly a forward looking progressive, Obama proved to be America’s first backward looking regressive. His first act was to increase federal borrowing, the national debt and the deficit by nearly a trillion dollars to finance a supposed “stimulus” package, based on the discredited Keynesian theory left for dead 30 years ago holding that increased government spending, deficits and debt are what promote economic growth and recovery. That theory arose in the 1930s as the answer to the Great Depression, which, of course, never worked.


That was the beginning of President Obama’s Rip Van Winkle act, pretending not to know anything that happened over the previous 30 years proving the dramatic, historic success of the new, more modern, supply side economics, which holds that incentives for increased production are what promote economic growth and recovery. Indeed, that Rip Van Winklism pretended not to remember the 1970s either, when double digit inflation and double digit unemployment proved Keynesian economics grievously wrong.

As should have been long expected, Obama’s trillion dollar Keynesian stimulus did nothing to promote recovery and growth, and almost surely delayed it. That is because borrowing a trillion dollars out of the economy to spend a trillion back into it does nothing to promote the economy on net. Indeed, it is probably a net drag on the economy, because the private sector spends the money more productively and efficiently than the public sector.

The National Bureau of Economic Research scored the recession as ending in June, 2009. Yet, today, in the 49th month since the recession started, there has still been no real recovery, like recoveries from previous recessions in America.

Unemployment actually rose after June, 2009, and did not fall back down below that level until 18 months later in December, 2010. Instead of a recovery, America has suffered the longest period of unemployment near 9% or above since the Great Depression, under President Obama’s public policy malpractice. Even today, 49 months after the recession started, the U6 unemployment rate counting the unemployed, underemployed and discouraged workers is still 15.2%. And that doesn’t include all the workers who have fled the workforce under Obama’s economic oppression. The unemployment rate with the full measure of discouraged workers is reported at www.shadowstats.com as about 23%, which is depression level unemployment.

Today, over 4 years since the recession started, there are still almost 25 million Americans unemployed or underemployed. That includes 5.6 million who are long-term unemployed for 27 weeks, or more than 6 months. Under President Obama, America has suffered the longest period with so many in such long-term unemployment since the Great Depression.

Notably, blacks have been suffering another depression under Obama, with unemployment today, 49 months after the recession started, still at 15.8%. Black unemployment has been over 15% for 2 years under Obama. Black teenage unemployment today is over 40%, where it has persisted for over 2 years as well.

Hispanics have also been suffering a depression under Obama, with unemployment today still in double digits at 11%. Hispanic unemployment has been in double digits for three years under President Obama. Over one fourth of Hispanic youths remain unemployed today, which also has persisted for years.

The Census Bureau reported in September that more Americans are in poverty today than at any time in the entire history of Census tracking poverty. Americans dependent on food stamps are at an all time high as well.

Real wages and incomes have been falling so steadily under Obama and his confused, throwback, Keynesian/neo-Marxist Obamanomics, that the Census Bureau also reported that real median family income in America has fallen all the way back to 1996 levels.



Obama apologists cannot argue that this is because the recession was so bad, because the historical record in America is the worse the recession the stronger the recovery. Based on historical precedent, we should at worst be finishing the second year of a booming recovery by now.

Compare Obama’s lack of a recovery 2 years after the recession ended with the first 2 years of the Reagan recovery. In those years under Reagan, the American economy created 8 million new jobs, the unemployment rate fell by 3.6 percentage points, real wages and incomes were jumping, and poverty had reversed an upsurge started under Carter, beginning a long term decline.

While Obama crows about 200,000 jobs created last month, the most for a month during his entire Administration, in September, 1983 the Reagan recovery less than a year after it began created 1.1 million jobs in that one month alone. Under Obama, we are still almost 6 million jobs below the peak before the recession started over 4 years ago! In the second year of the Reagan recovery, real economic growth boomed by 6.8%, the highest in 50 years.

The chief excuse of the Obama apologists is that what we have suffered was not just a recession, but a financial crisis, and, they argue, recovery from a financial crisis takes a lot longer than recovery from a recession. But that is not the experience of the American, free market, capitalist economy.

The experience of the American economy is reported in full at the National Bureau of Economic Research, as cited above – recessions since the Great Depression previously have lasted an average of 10 months, with the longest previously 16 months, and the deeper the recession the stronger the recovery. That is the standard by which the performance of Obamanomics is to be judged. Which of those American recessions was a “financial crisis” that breaks the pattern?

The apologists cite in their support the book, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. That book “covers sixty-six countries over nearly eight centuries.” It “goes back as far as twelfth century China and medieval Europe.” The data “come from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania.” The experience from 12th century China, medieval Europe, spendthrift demagogues and socialist economies from Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia, do not set the standard of expectations for post depression, free market, capitalist America over the last 70 years, the most powerful economic engine in the history of the world.

The data in the book is marshaled to explain why, in fact, “this time is different” is actually always wrong. Seizing upon the data in the book to try to give some sort of pass to Obamanomics for failing the economic performance standards of American history is just political propaganda.

Indeed, exactly none of President Obama’s policies have been well designed to restore economic recovery and traditional American prosperity. They have consistently been the opposite of everything that Reagan did to end the American decline of the 1970s, and restore booming growth for 25 years. That is why Rush Limbaugh is saying Obama deliberately wants to trash the economy, thinking the resulting dependency will lead a majority to continue to vote for the liberal political machine. President Obama certainly thinks that traditional American, world leading prosperity is morally embarrassing because of the global inequality it represents.

The American economy will likely show continued, long overdue, signs of life in 2012, which will amount to way too little, way too late, based on historical standards. But even worse than his first term is what Obama is brewing up for 2013 on his current course.

Most people do not know that already enacted in current law for 2013 are increases in the top tax rates of virtually every major federal tax. That is because the tax increases of Obamacare become effective that year, and the Bush tax cuts expire, which Obama has refused to renew for singles reporting income over $200,000 per year, or couples reporting over $250,000 per year (in other words, the nation’s small businesses, job creators and investors, in plain English).

As a result, if the Bush tax cuts just expire for these upper income taxpayers, along with the Obamacare taxes, in 2013 the top two income tax rates will jump nearly 20%, the capital gains tax rate will soar by nearly 60%, the tax on corporate dividends will nearly triple, and the Medicare payroll tax will leap by 62% for those disfavored taxpayers.

This is on top of the U.S. corporate income tax rate, which is virtually the highest in the industrialized world. The federal rate is 35%, with state corporate rates taking it close to 40% on average. But even Communist China has a 25% rate. The average rate in the social welfare states of the European Union is less than that. Formerly socialist Canada has a 16.5% rate going down to 15% next year.


These U.S. corporate tax rates leave American companies uncompetitive in the global economy. Yet under President Obama there is no relief in sight. Instead, he has spent the past year barnstorming the country calling for still further tax increases on American business, large and small, investors, and job creators.

Higher tax rates mean producers can only keep a smaller percentage of what they produce. So tax rate increases reduce the incentive for productive activities, such as saving, investment, starting businesses, expanding businesses, job creation, entrepreneurship and work, resulting in less of each. And that is what the tax tsunami of 2013 would do, which would once again swamp the weak economy.

Most small business profits are reported from households earning more than $200,000/$250,000 per year, and those small businesses produce more than half the new jobs. So the 2013 tax tsunami effectively targets small business, and the nation’s job creators. That will hurt working people the most, because they will lose the jobs and the wage income they need to maintain their basic standard of living.

In addition, the Obama administration is in the process of imposing a blizzard of new regulatory costs and barriers that will be building to a crescendo by 2013 as well. Academic studies estimate the total costs of regulation in the economy to be rapidly rising towards $2 trillion per year, or $8,000 per employee. That is close to 10 times the corporate income tax burden, and double the individual income tax. When the resulting effects on the economy are considered, the total losses due to regulatory burdens may total $3 trillion, or one fifth of our entire economy.

But by 2013 these regulatory costs will have exploded in unprecedented fashion. That reflects the Obama Administration’s global warming crusade, assault on private energy production, the still oncoming Dodd-Frank regulatory burdens on the financial community, Obamacare regulations, particularly the job killing employer mandate, and many others.

By 2013, the Fed may be in contractionary mode as well. If history is any guide, the Fed might decide that right after the election would be the perfect time to cut back on its historically loose monetary policy with record low interest rates that have persisted for years. Adding rising interest rates to the above brew of soaring marginal tax rates across the board and exploding regulatory costs would accumulate to a powerful contractionary force.

Art Laffer predicted the Coming Crash of 2011 on the basis of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts on the upper income earners alone. Those tax rate increases were extended to 2013 in December, 2010 out of fear that prediction was right. But now in 2013 in addition to those tax rate increases we have all of the tax increases of Obamacare, the further exploding costs of Obama’s building regulatory blizzard, and the possible contractionary effect of the Fed’s monetary policies, all at the same time. Unless we reverse course, the result may well be one big, bad crash in 2013.

Adding that on top of Obama’s first term, the entire period will look like an historical reenactment of the 1930s. Unless the American people choose to change leadership this year, we will have achieved that result the old fashioned way – we will have earned it.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfer...at-depression/
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Old 01-15-2012, 09:20 PM   #2
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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Nothing remotely suprising about this since he was handed the worst economic situation since the Great Depression. It was so stark that whoever won in 2008 was well and truly ****ed that I posted that it might be entirely better for Democrats to lose that election so they didn't get blamed for all the bad shit that was inevitable from 2008-12. If the Republicans had somehow won in '08, I think that at least two or more terms for a Democrat would have been assured starting in '12.

Instead, the Republican field is so weak Obama might somehow win reelection, which given the economic situation would really be a breach of historical precedent.
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Old 01-15-2012, 10:33 PM   #3
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Really, If the republicans had a plan they believed in
they'd run a canidate with more apeal than a plate of cold mash potatoes
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:34 AM   #4
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Nonsense Amnorix. You Dems have had congress since 2006. We could have been out of the mess in 2 years with the right ideas. Just because current Republicans act like Democrats is meaningless.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:44 AM   #5
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Wasserman thinks Obama should get the credit for where the economy is now

WALLACE: All right. Let me bring in Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz.
Yes, the numbers are better -- 200,000 jobs created, 8.5 percent. But 13 million Americans are out of work and the fact is that no president has been reelected with unemployment over 7.2 percent since FDR back in the 1930s. So, better yes, not good.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, certainly not where we want to be. And it's important to look at where we were when President Obama took office. I mean, he did inherit an economy and largest set of problems of any presidents since FDR and was in the situation where we were bleeding 750,000 jobs a month when he took office.

Now, three years later, we've had 22 straight months of job growth in the private sector. You know, Reince, it's amusing -- disappointing actually that he seems disappointed in the progress that we've been able to make. But we've had 22 straight months of job growth. We've had as you said almost 3 million jobs created in the private sector, 200,000 alone in just the last month.

And now, in manufacturing, let me just correct what Reince just said, we've actually had the largest growth in the manufacturing sector that we've had since 1997.

WALLACE: All right.
(CROSSTALK)

WALLACE: Wait, wait, wait. Guys, I said I was going to play traffic cop, I'm going to do that.

Congresswoman, President Obama was interviewed in early 2009, about a month after he took office and when he was pushing his $800 billion stimulus, here's what he said about fixing the economy. Take a look.

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: If I don't have it done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition.

WALLACE: Congresswoman, the president has clearly failed to meet that test.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, I think the president certainly has been -- should be credited for pushing hard, fighting to get the economy turned around, fighting to create jobs without any help from the Republicans at all. I mean, the Republican Congress --

WALLACE: But you would agree -- he hasn't gotten it done in three years.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, he inherited a huge set of problems at once and it's very clear that --

WALLACE: But that's what he said, get it done in three years.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, I understand. But I certainly think he deserves credit, he should give himself some credit and does for beginning to get the economy turned around, for bringing us as far as he has. We have gone from an unemployment rate that was over 11 percent at one point. Now, it's below nine and we are beginning to move in the right direction.

WALLACE: But, and let me just quickly say, it was 7.8 percent when he took office.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, but he had inherited a huge set of problems with the economy that was on the precipice of disaster. Thanks to Republican policies.

Remember, George W. Bush presided over the turning of a record surplus into a record deficit -- a financial disaster because no one was minding the store. Almost no regulation that was appropriate over the financial services industry. Now, we have Wall Street reform that makes sure that consumers had protection, makes sure that banks can't be too big to fail. We begun to get things --

WALLACE: All right. I am going to get --

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: President Obama deserves some credit.

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-ne...ination?page=2
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Old 01-16-2012, 12:58 PM   #6
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Nonsense Amnorix. You Dems have had congress since 2006. We could have been out of the mess in 2 years with the right ideas. Just because current Republicans act like Democrats is meaningless.
Please shut the **** up. You have no idea of what you're talking about.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:01 PM   #7
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Also, anybody who has read Reinhardt and Rogoff's paper about credit crises and the recoveries afterwards could have seen this a mile away.

I'm still not sure we avoid a second recession but Obama is going to be fine because it probably won't hit until later in the year. With the uptick in jobs and the gop nominating a schmuck, Obama will be back for 4 more years.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:04 PM   #8
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The economy is being juiced for the election. Incumbents benefit.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:15 PM   #9
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Also, anybody who has read Reinhardt and Rogoff's paper about credit crises and the recoveries afterwards could have seen this a mile away.

I'm still not sure we avoid a second recession but Obama is going to be fine because it probably won't hit until later in the year. With the uptick in jobs and the gop nominating a schmuck, Obama will be back for 4 more years.
Drug addicts, illegal immigrants, blacks, union thugs and retards aren't a strong enough base to elect a President yet. He's lost the idealistic youth (see Literature's flirtation with Romney) and the older thoughtful liberals (see banyon, oldandslow or Amnorix).
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:34 PM   #10
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Older thoughtful liberals? I'd calle them socialists or progressives. I'll say oldandslow is a thoughtful person but he admits he's also a socialist. I think him, banyon and Literature like Romney because of Romneycare. It's okay to kill innocents abroad if you still get your allegedly "free" healthcare.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:40 PM   #11
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Older thoughtful liberals? I'd calle them socialists or progressives. I'll say oldandslow is a thoughtful person but he admits he's also a socialist. I think him, banyon and Literature like Romney because of Romneycare. It's okay to kill innocents abroad if you still get your allegedly "free" healthcare.
Liberals, socialists, progressives, whatever. I think all four of the posters I named are thoughtful. They've all expressed some level of disappointment in Obama and at least entertained the idea of not voting for him in the general election.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:41 PM   #12
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Paul gets the more of those who lean classically liberal and Romney collects the statists, fascists and socialists.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:50 PM   #13
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Obama was handed a shit hand, but he could have made immense change if he wasn't a politician... or had decent economic advisers. Look at the litany of BS that he allowed to carry on because he really doesn't understand. I can guarantee that he had no idea about Fannie or Freddie... but shouldn't he have known? I did.
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Old 01-16-2012, 01:55 PM   #14
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Drug addicts, illegal immigrants, blacks, union thugs and retards aren't a strong enough base to elect a President yet. He's lost the idealistic youth (see Literature's flirtation with Romney) and the older thoughtful liberals (see banyon, oldandslow or Amnorix).
Unfortunately for you, cynical, dumbass bastards like me still deliver the goods.
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Old 01-16-2012, 02:00 PM   #15
Mr. Flopnuts Mr. Flopnuts is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Paul gets the more or those who lean classically liberal and Romney collects the statists, fascists and socialists.
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Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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