Paul likely to win more delegates than either Newt or Santorum this weekend

[Taco John]

Will Ron Paul win more delegates this week than Gingrich, Santorum?

Ron Paul is likely to win more delegates to the 2012 GOP convention than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum this week. Wait. What? That's why he campaigned in Maine this weekend.

By Peter Grier, Staff writer / January 30, 2012

This week, Ron Paul is likely to win more delegates to the 2012 GOP convention than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum. In fact, he’s likely to win more delegates than Gingrich and Santorum combined.

“Hold it”, you’re saying, “How can that be? Rep. Paul’s polling in single digits in Florida. He’s going to finish behind Gingrich and Santorum, as well as Mitt Romney, in Tuesday’s Florida primary. How can that translate into beating any of his rivals at all?”

We’ll tell you how – because he’s not winning those delegates in Florida. He’s winning, or will probably win, at least a few delegates in Maine.

more....

[La literatura]

Ron Paul is going to ride Maine all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave!

[alnorth]

I think a brokered convention is quickly falling out of sight. RP's endgame right now is probably to force a prime-time speech before riding off into the sunset.

Gingrich is quickly falling apart, but he's stubbornly staying in and will do just enough to keep Santorum from doing anything. The only real shot at a brokered convention now is for Gingrich to do something remarkably stupid, very soon, that completely destroys his support regardless of if he drops out or not, then maybe, possibly Santorum consolidates the not-Romney voters.

If that happens, RP keeps trucking along with his 15% or so, and Santorum does at least well enough to prevent Romney from winning a majority for the "proportional unless someone gets a majority then its winner take all" states and takes a few late winner take all states, then there's a shot.

It probably still wouldn't happen, but that is probably the only way it could at this point.

[FD]

What Ron Paul needs is a decisive month for Romney followed by Gingrich and Santorum dropping out. After that, the nomination is assured for Mitt and average voters will stop paying attention to the primaries and caucuses, turnout will plummet and RP supporters might be able to swoop in and take a couple. Thats the only way I see Paul getting more than a very small number of delegates.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Forward Dante

What Ron Paul needs is a decisive month for Romney followed by Gingrich and Santorum dropping out. After that, the nomination is assured for Mitt and average voters will stop paying attention to the primaries and caucuses, turnout will plummet and RP supporters might be able to swoop in and take a couple. Thats the only way I see Paul getting more than a very small number of delegates.

Even that wouldn't get him a spot at the convention.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Forward Dante

What Ron Paul needs is a decisive month for Romney followed by Gingrich and Santorum dropping out. After that, the nomination is assured for Mitt and average voters will stop paying attention to the primaries and caucuses, turnout will plummet and RP supporters might be able to swoop in and take a couple. Thats the only way I see Paul getting more than a very small number of delegates.

Ron Paul is going to get a really good chunk of delegates regardless of what the other candidates do. He's going to probably take at least half, if not most of the caucus state delegates, and is really the primary reason why a brokered convention is even possible. (If its 2 strong candidates, someone will win. You need a 3rd stubborn candidate who can take a big chunk off the table, leaving the others needing to win a super-majority of whats left.)

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Even that wouldn't get him a spot at the convention.

Actually, it probably will. The powers that be in the Republican party are ready to let him speak if it means he doesn't launch a 3rd-party bid.

Also, that 3rd party threat aside, you can dismiss a guy who only gets a small handful of delegates stuck in the back of the convention hall like RP did in 2008, but it is not healthy to snub the guy who maybe 1/4 to 1/5 of delegates support. You can't bar them from the convention floor during speeches, and the crowd would be more than big and loud enough to make things ugly on national TV if you don't give their guy his due.

[Bo's Pelini]

Lol how can anyone say this thing isn't up in the air? I'm not saying Paul will win but it's obvious a good part of the Republican party doesn't like Mitt Romney. For example: Gingrich isn't on the ballot in Missouri and PPP just released a poll Santorum is getting 45% of the vote. Gingrich leads in Ohio & Minnesota.

[Taco John]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

Lol how can anyone say this thing isn't up in the air? I'm not saying Paul will win but it's obvious a good part of the Republican party doesn't like Mitt Romney. For example: Gingrich isn't on the ballot in Missouri and PPP just released a poll Santorum is getting 45% of the vote. Gingrich leads in Ohio & Minnesota.

The establishment narrative is going to be that Romney has it sealed after Florida. We'll probably see that narrative happen five or six times this year. By the time Romney actually seals up the nomination (if it ever happens) his brand will be so damaged that he'll have no hope of beating Obama.

[KILLER_CLOWN]

[KILLER_CLOWN]

[BucEyedPea]

Country-club GOP establishment lays down the law to Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and the conservative movement

FALL INTO LINE and GET BEHIND ROMNEY

"...Mission accomplished.

Don't believe it....


After Florida some will say it is over, but it will not be over. Very few delegates will have been selected. A majority of national Republican voters does not play golf in the country club of the white-shoe Republican establishment that will soon be telling the majority of Republicans to shut up and be good little boys and girls." [ The last line here was written by Saul.]

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blo...ative-movement

[Calcountry]

If Gingrich or Santorum doesn't become a viable alternative to Romney by the time the California primary rolls around, I WILL vote for Ron Paul.

I am through with the Republican party after this charade was forced on us like McSame was last time. Jessie Jackson had it right, "Stay out da Bushes".

[Calcountry]

Hopefully, we can deny as many delegates as we can to down on the MATT Romney.

[Taco John]

Originally Posted by Calcountry

If Gingrich or Santorum doesn't become a viable alternative to Romney by the time the California primary rolls around, I WILL vote for Ron Paul.

I am through with the Republican party after this charade was forced on us like McSame was last time. Jessie Jackson had it right, "Stay out da Bushes".

Gingrich isn't viable, and wont be viable. His only role right now is to damage Romney and ensure that Obama wins.

There are two viable men in the Republican race right now:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ber-showdowns/