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Old 01-31-2012, 02:52 PM  
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****The official NEW new conference realignment thread.****

the second thread has been pronounced dead.
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Old 05-16-2012, 12:38 AM   #1966
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This is from a Baylor Blogger:

Big 12 Growing?

Brian Ethridge •

About three weeks ago, one of my best sources on conference realignment called. I thought he was just calling to catch up and say "hello."

I was wrong.

The BCS meetings regarding a college football playoff at the FBS level were approaching, and he told me to watch carfefully what came out of those meetings.

Soon after the ACC schools received their new ESPN contract - which averaged $17 million per school, per year over 15 years - the news leaked of a Big 12 contract for the top two tiers in the range of $20 million apiece. That meant two tiers of the Big 12 was valued at $3 million more than all three tiers of ACC programming.

At that time, at least 10 universities started a market research study on the value of their tier three rights, which remain in possession by Big 12 schools after equally distributing the top two tiers.

Louisville, Pitt, Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and BYU all received their studies and went to media outlets to gauge the monetary value.

Notre Dame would receive the largest amount, followed by Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. The others were all told that their rights were valued in the $4 million range.

Last Thursday, intermediaries from several schools reached out to decision makers to start conversations about possibly moving to the Big 12.

On Saturday, the Chairman of Florida State's Board of Trustees blasted the ACC contract - especially in terms of the institutions where football was more of a focus than basetball.

Another detail that came to light was that the new ACC contract was backloaded - with members not receiving the $17 million until 2021. The Big 12 deal had a greater rate of acceleration, with schools receiving the $20 million by 2015 - when the rumored ESPN contract would go into effect.

As of today, the ESPN Big 12 contract has not been signed. Escalator clauses in the contract for getting back to 12 teams will raise the contract northward of $25 million per team. The media contracts for the Big 12 will reopen for negotiation if the league expands past 12 teams.

At this time, the Big 12 powers are happy with the thought of 12 teams and a new conference championship game. However, a few of the league's major players would like the contract to reopen for possibly more money by going to 14 teams.

With 14 teams, expected payouts would be approximately $28 million per school, with another $2 million or so per team coming from a conference championship game. And remember, the schools also have their tier 3 rights - unlike the ACC.

Florida State and Clemson coaches have been told a possible move to the Big 12 was under way, and to be ready for this on the road recruiting.

Secondly, our sources also state a Big 12 Tier 3 Network for the schools without the pull of a Texas or OU could form and would likely mean an additional $4 million to $6 million for those institutions. This would ensure constant programming for either Fox Sports or ESPN to show in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and other conference markets. Adding two ACC schools would further the reach of this network.

Originally Texas and OU were wanting to remain at 10 schools in the conference, but they began to consider expansion when the tier 3 studies were done by the other schools. The ability of the Big 12 to attract national brands such as Florida State and Clemson raised the bar a bit for a conference long-since stabilized by a 13-year grant of rights by its members.

The next obstacle is finding the right teams to add - and how many. There are several suitors for the additional two or four seats. The issue remains which schools could increase the current contract to the maximum projected $28 million.

Our sources have told us decisions could be made by May 30, when the Big 12 has its annual membership meeting.

All situations can change. However, according to people we trust, if Clemson and Florida State inform the ACC of their decision to leave - and the schools complete the application process for Big 12 membership - then discussions could take place at the May meeting.

It is unclear if the power brokers in the conference would rubber-stamp the applications, or if a school like Texas or Oklahoma would balk at FSU and Clemson being the first two added to the conference ranks.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:08 AM   #1967
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Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade View Post
Sure, playing Florida, Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia could fill the stands at Missouri, but for each one of those you have Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. And when no one in your office in Kansas City went to any one of those schools, and you can’t talk water-cooler trash to them, the interest in the games isn’t nearly as high.
Clearly, which is why Mizzou is on a season ticket waiting list for the first time ever, road game tickets are completely sold out, and the university is planning to unveil a master renovation plan that will push football stadium capacity to over 80,000.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:18 AM   #1968
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Clearly, which is why Mizzou is on a season ticket waiting list for the first time ever, road game tickets are completely sold out, and the university is planning to unveil a master renovation plan that will push football stadium capacity to over 80,000.
How is it that everyone but Mizzou knows what is best for Mizzou?
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Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:35 AM   #1969
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If the Big 12 can get $28 million/team from its TV partners for going to 14, what do you think is going to happen when the SEC renegotiates its contract to include 14 teams?

$325 million a year, as quoted in the article below, is a really low-ball estimate. Add $100 million, and you might be right.

Where the SEC will really make a huge amount of money - and where the rest of Missouri's "$12 million more" figure comes from is the SEC network. It's going to happen. It's going to be just as big/successful as the Big Ten network.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:56 AM   #1970
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
If the Big 12 can get $28 million/team from its TV partners for going to 14, what do you think is going to happen when the SEC renegotiates its contract to include 14 teams?

$325 million a year, as quoted in the article below, is a really low-ball estimate. Add $100 million, and you might be right.

That would sound about right.....$30ish million per team.
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Old 05-16-2012, 10:04 AM   #1971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
If the Big 12 can get $28 million/team from its TV partners for going to 14, what do you think is going to happen when the SEC renegotiates its contract to include 14 teams?

$325 million a year, as quoted in the article below, is a really low-ball estimate. Add $100 million, and you might be right.

Where the SEC will really make a huge amount of money - and where the rest of Missouri's "$12 million more" figure comes from is the SEC network. It's going to happen. It's going to be just as big/successful as the Big Ten network.
I've heard whispers of $25-30MM per team for Tier 1 and 2 renegotiations, and $5-10MM per team initially for Tier 3 from the SEC Network. Of course the SEC Network's value will increase perpetually if it is successful because they will retain ownership.
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Old 05-16-2012, 02:54 PM   #1972
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I think you're fooling yourselves a bit if you think an SEC network is going to be just as profitable as the BTN. The B!G has huge population centers and huge alumni bases all over the country. Taking Missouri and A&M was the SEC's attempt to try and gain greater market share in the hope it will be successful. I'm sure they want property near DC and Charolette as well. On field success is not the same thing as TV market share. SEC absolutely has rabid fan support, but they don't have the actual numbers the B!G can draw on.

Further, the structure is a bit different and you're assuming two networks are just going to hand over money on property they already own. They have clauses for look-ins, not complete renegotiations. There will be a bump to be sure, but I would be surprised if it is something astronomical. All the networks have to do is point to the last national championship game ratings. SEC TV sets do not guarantee national appeal. Their alumni genrerally stay in the South whereas the B!G alumni have branched out more towards the warmer climates yet retain their B!G sports preferences. That's why the BTN is so successful.

Its also why the SEC is more concerned about the Big 12's possible expansion. Its not because of FSU, its because Virginia Tech might be interested, especially if you have a four school defection. If V Tech were approached independently by both the SEC and Big 12, the SEC would win. But, if the possibility became available that, say, FSU, Clemson, G Tech and V Tech could all go together to the Big 12, that might appeal to them more.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:02 PM   #1973
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The B1G is centered in the rust belt, a fading part of the country. Just look at the major metro areas in its footprint.

The southeast is exploding.
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:04 PM   #1974
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I think you're fooling yourselves a bit if you think an SEC network is going to be just as profitable as the BTN. The B!G has huge population centers and huge alumni bases all over the country.
Yeah, nobody cares about Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, or Texas A&M nationally.

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Old 05-16-2012, 03:04 PM   #1975
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The B1G is centered in the rust belt, a fading part of the country. Just look at the major metro areas in its footprint.

The southeast is exploding.
Interest in SEC football is isolated and regional.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:15 PM   #1976
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The B1G is centered in the rust belt, a fading part of the country. Just look at the major metro areas in its footprint.

The southeast is exploding.
Television Markets
SEC
5. Dallas
8. Atlanta
10. Houston
13. Tampa Bay
16. Miami
19. Orlando
21. St. Louis
29. Nashville
31. Kansas City
36. Greenville
40. Birmingham
47. Jacksonville
48. Memphis
49. Austin
50. Louisville

BIG TEN
3. Chicago
4. Philadelphia
11. Detroit
15. Minneapolis
17. Cleveland
23. Pittsburgh
25. Indianapolis
32. Columbus
34. Cincinnati
35. Milwaukee
39. Grand Rapids
41. Harrisburg
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:31 PM   #1977
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Television Markets
SEC
5. Dallas
8. Atlanta
10. Houston
13. Tampa Bay
16. Miami
19. Orlando
21. St. Louis
29. Nashville
31. Kansas City
36. Greenville
40. Birmingham
47. Jacksonville
48. Memphis
49. Austin
50. Louisville

BIG TEN
3. Chicago
4. Philadelphia
11. Detroit
15. Minneapolis
17. Cleveland
23. Pittsburgh
25. Indianapolis
32. Columbus
34. Cincinnati
35. Milwaukee
39. Grand Rapids
41. Harrisburg
Of the 25 largest cities in the country, four lost population between the 2000 census and the 2010 census. Philadelphia and Detroit are two of them.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:36 PM   #1978
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On a mostly unrelated note, I just read a bizarre stat about Philadelphia. There are 92 colleges in the Philadelphia area, but only 21% of residents have a college education.
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:37 PM   #1979
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Of the 25 largest cities in the country, four lost population between the 2000 census and the 2010 census. Philadelphia and Detroit are two of them.
Yea but the real question is are their tv sets still there?
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:43 PM   #1980
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Yea but the real question is are their tv sets still there?
In Detroit and Philly, the ones that haven't been stolen are lying broken in alleyways if my experiences there are any indication.
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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