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Old 02-01-2012, 07:47 PM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

Gallup adds:


Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico



http://campaign2012.washingtonexamin...ma-loss/352881
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:49 PM   #2
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What this says to me is not only will Obama lose but that a lot of the bickering we hear about the Repub nominees being not conservative enough, etc. is pretty much bunk and that voters are not looking to who is more conservative but rather they just don't want Obama.

The underlying tone here as well is it could spell another ass whipping at the polls for Democrats in Congress.
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:55 PM   #3
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OR, PA, and IA?

The creator of this map is on drugs.

edit: thread bookmarked
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:56 PM   #4
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Looks to me like any Republican could win. If that's the case, why not choose a real conservative instead of going with another Bush ( Mitt or Newt )?

I'll tell you why Rs won't. They prefer BIG govt—just their kind of BIG govt.
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:58 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
OR, PA, and IA?

The creator of this map is on drugs.

edit: thread bookmarked
IA and PA are both very much in play. Not so much Oregon.

Either way, this map isn't a prediction. Its a visual representation of Obama's approval by state.
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:59 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
OR, PA, and IA?

The creator of this map is on drugs.

edit: thread bookmarked
Yeah I was rather shocked by those. Particularly OR. PA and IA I can see swinging to the right. Lot's of unemployment in those states.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:08 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Yeah I was rather shocked by those. Particularly OR. PA and IA I can see swinging to the right. Lot's of unemployment in those states.
IA's unemployment rate is relatively low. I could see them swinging for Romney, however. It's all up for grabs right now though. Can't predict.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:11 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Yeah I was rather shocked by those. Particularly OR. PA and IA I can see swinging to the right. Lot's of unemployment in those states.
IA is actually doing really well, we're a lot better than the national average for unemployment and usually top a lot of those "best place to get a job" lists that magazines like to publish. We do have a Republican governor, but he won only by running as a moderate, after the IA GOP voters dismissed his looney raving far-right-wing primary challenger. (I wasn't sure about him, but I now have a lot of respect for Branstad, he's turned out to be a very intelligent and effective governor)

Obama did very, very well in Iowa (beat the hell out of McCain by 10 points), and I'm not sensing that things have changed much here, though maybe I'm in an urban Des Moines bubble.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:11 PM   #9
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Quote:
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IA's unemployment rate is relatively low. I could see them swinging for Romney, however. It's all up for grabs right now though. Can't predict.
Guess I should have clarified...Iowa's unemployment rate is damn near the highest it's been in 2 decades.

So relatively speaking....
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:12 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
IA is actually doing really well, we're a lot better than the national average for unemployment and usually top a lot of those "best place to get a job" lists that magazines like to publish. We do have a Republican governor, but he won only by running as a moderate, after the IA GOP dismissed his looney raving far-right-wing primary challenger. (I wasn't sure about him, but I now have a lot of respect for Branstad, he's turned out to be a very intelligent and effective governor)

Obama did very, very well in Iowa (beat the hell out of McCain by 10 points), and I'm not sensing that things have changed much here, though maybe I'm in an urban Des Moines bubble.
My gut tells me you are going to see a lot of the independents that voted for Obama swing towards Romeny. Romeny can walk the middle line pretty well. You have the right saying he isn't conservative enough and the left saying he is too conservative.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:19 PM   #11
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Kind of a specious article and map. For example, Obama loses North Carolina based on his mid 40's approval rating, but somehow Mitt Romney wins with a 28% favorability rating in that state?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...ohio.html#more
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:20 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Guess I should have clarified...Iowa's unemployment rate is damn near the highest it's been in 2 decades.

So relatively speaking....
We're under 6. Gotta take things in perspective, if its the highest in 2 decades, then Iowa's been kicking the country's ass for 2 decades.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:24 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by banyon View Post
Kind of a specious article and map. For example, Obama loses North Carolina based on his mid 40's approval rating, but somehow Mitt Romney wins with a 28% favorability rating in that state?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...ohio.html#more
call it the Sharon Angle/Christine O'Donnell rule. "anybody but Reid" can easily turn into "oh God, not her", except here, Obama is not really that disliked on a personal basis. Outside of the right-wing Limbaugh-listening crazies, the harshest the criticism ever gets is "he's such a nice guy and has a great family, but gosh I just think we need someone else. Its too bad, really"
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:32 PM   #14
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Oh by the way, all you O'Donnell/Angle apologists out there who were all about purity, and we dont need RINO's, and we don't care if its Delaware and Republicans never, ever win here, and this is a chance of a lifetime to miraculously steal a dark-blue seat away, you still gotta support the tea party (and holy crap look at O'Donnell, aint she cute?) folks out there:

I haven't forgotten about you rocket scientists. If you nominated sane rational candidates in NV and DE, not only would Reid be a distant memory, but the Republicans would have an absolute guaranteed hammer-lock on getting the majority in the Senate in 2013 regardless of the presidency. Seriously, as in, "Obama could beat the crap out of Romney by 15, and the GOP would probably still win the Senate".

Its still likely, but now there's an outside chance that Reid could keep a slim majority for the next 2 years if Obama does well and has any coattails at all.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:33 PM   #15
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Obama's not losing Ohio or PA.
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