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Old 05-22-2012, 08:38 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Grow Now, Cut Deficits Later

The Wall Street Journal talking some sense.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

The Long and Short of Fiscal Policy
The economy is too shaky to go cold turkey. We need more stimulus now and deficit reduction later..

by Alan Binder
May 21, 2012, 7:03 p.m. ET

Quote:
Can we talk about the federal budget deficit? Better yet, can we think about it? For there has been a lot more talking than thinking. One persistent point of confusion arises from the radically different macroeconomic effects of larger budget deficits in the short and long runs.

In the short run—let's say within a year or so—a larger deficit, whether achieved by spending more or taxing less, boosts economic growth by increasing aggregate demand. It's pretty simple. If the government spends more money without raising anyone's taxes to pay the bills, that adds to total demand directly.
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But don’t we need to reduce the deficit—and by large amounts? Yes, we do, but that’s in the long run, where the effects of larger deficits are mostly harmful to economic growth. In the jargon, more government borrowing tends to ‘crowd out’ private borrowers by pushing interest rates up… There is an important exception, however, which is highly germane to today’s situation… Right now, the U.S. government can borrow for 10 years at under 2% per annum. At these super-low interest rates, you don’t have to be a genius to find many public infrastructure projects with strongly positive net present values. Borrowing to make such investments will enhance long-run growth, not retard it.

Looking ahead, the lion’s share of projected future deficits comes from rising health-care expenditures. Some of this cost escalation stems from heavier usage—consuming more health services per capita. But most of it comes from ever-rising relative prices; health care just keeps getting more expensive relative to almost everything else… So here, in brief, is my three-step rehab program for our nation’s fiscal policy. First, enact a modest stimulus, sharply targeted on job creation—and avoid falling off the fiscal cliff. Second, once the economy is ready, start on something that resembles the 10-year Simpson-Bowles deficit-reduction plan—which would pay for the stimulus 15-20 times over. Third, figure out how to bend the health-care cost curve downward.
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Old 05-23-2012, 06:59 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
This is always my preference. My worry is that it seems (to our idiot legislators) to NEVER be time to cut the deficit. It seems to always be either "economic growth is [negative/anemic], we can't cut the deficit now" versus (unstated) "I'm not going to kill the golden goose that will keep me in office"
Democrats("Cutting deficits = tax increases) Republicans(Cutting deficits = cutting spending).

There is your problem.
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Old 05-23-2012, 07:00 PM   #17
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The American people are evenly divided between moochers and producers.

The moochers vote for Democrats, and the producers vote for Republicans.
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Old 05-23-2012, 07:01 PM   #18
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A moocher, is by definition, "someone who wants something for nothing".
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Old 05-23-2012, 07:08 PM   #19
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It's pretty ****ing simple. You want to make the economy better it doesn't take much.

1. Strengthen the $. Yes, that's right. By doing so you bring down the cost of everyday goods such as food and energy. What a concept, I know. If you look back to the last 2 economic periods of growth we had, the 90's and early 2000's, the $ actually was on the rise. So ge tthe ****ing $ up!!!

2. Enact mandatory OT laws for salary based employees. Companies are milking their lean work forces and making record profits because salary based employees are taking on more and more workload as jobs are cut. Force OT laws on salary employees and hiring will pick up

3. Cut the damn corporate tax rate. Pure and simple. Make it cheaper to do business in this country.


It's probably too logical for the Fed Gov to ever consider. Cheaper goods + incentive to hire + incentive to locate business in this country = economic growth.
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Old 05-23-2012, 11:47 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
It's pretty ****ing simple. You want to make the economy better it doesn't take much.

1. Strengthen the $. Yes, that's right. By doing so you bring down the cost of everyday goods such as food and energy. What a concept, I know. If you look back to the last 2 economic periods of growth we had, the 90's and early 2000's, the $ actually was on the rise. So ge tthe ****ing $ up!!!

2. Enact mandatory OT laws for salary based employees. Companies are milking their lean work forces and making record profits because salary based employees are taking on more and more workload as jobs are cut. Force OT laws on salary employees and hiring will pick up

3. Cut the damn corporate tax rate. Pure and simple. Make it cheaper to do business in this country.


It's probably too logical for the Fed Gov to ever consider. Cheaper goods + incentive to hire + incentive to locate business in this country = economic growth.


I agree with 1 and 3. #2 however is a horrible idea. The government has no business telling companies they have to pay OT to salary based employees. It is on the individual to negotiate with their employer if they feel that they are being underpaid for their workload. Removing unnecessary regulations that increase the cost of conducting business would be much more effective.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:13 AM   #21
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Old 05-24-2012, 05:59 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
I agree with 1 and 3. #2 however is a horrible idea. The government has no business telling companies they have to pay OT to salary based employees. It is on the individual to negotiate with their employer if they feel that they are being underpaid for their workload. Removing unnecessary regulations that increase the cost of conducting business would be much more effective.
So they can tell them they have to pay hourly employees OT but not salary?
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Old 05-24-2012, 06:08 AM   #23
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How many more times are we going to double down on Keynesian Economics, and lose, before we realize it doesn't work?

How are those austerity measures working out in Europe?
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Old 05-24-2012, 06:10 AM   #24
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The American people are evenly divided between moochers and producers.

The moochers vote for Democrats, and the producers vote for Republicans.

I could go on and on but yeah, this isn't true. Alot of Republicans seem to think it's true, but they're wrong about alot of things...
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Old 05-24-2012, 06:13 AM   #25
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I agree with 1 and 3. #2 however is a horrible idea. The government has no business telling companies they have to pay OT to salary based employees. It is on the individual to negotiate with their employer if they feel that they are being underpaid for their workload. Removing unnecessary regulations that increase the cost of conducting business would be much more effective.

1 is pretty crackers. He's not bad on 2, however. Employers are squeezing the shit out of their workforce, giving paltry raises and refusing ot hire additional workers, relying on the weak job market to force employees to stay in place.

I'm seeing it and hearing about it all over the place.

The issue isn't ALL salary workers, it's that too many workers in the Administrative category really shouldn't be allowed to be exempt in the first place. Sure, senior management and highly paid professionals etc. shouldn't get overtime -- they're paid massive amounts. But support staff working $40K or whatever per year? Yeah, no.
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Old 05-24-2012, 03:41 PM   #26
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1 is pretty crackers. He's not bad on 2, however. Employers are squeezing the shit out of their workforce, giving paltry raises and refusing ot hire additional workers, relying on the weak job market to force employees to stay in place.

I'm seeing it and hearing about it all over the place.

The issue isn't ALL salary workers, it's that too many workers in the Administrative category really shouldn't be allowed to be exempt in the first place. Sure, senior management and highly paid professionals etc. shouldn't get overtime -- they're paid massive amounts. But support staff working $40K or whatever per year? Yeah, no.

When we think about solving problems, our thought process needs to be "How can we fix this problem with less government?". #2 is more government intrusion in business. We can't fix the problem of too much government by growing government.
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Old 05-24-2012, 06:25 PM   #27
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When we think about solving problems, our thought process needs to be "How can we fix this problem with less government?". #2 is more government intrusion in business. We can't fix the problem of too much government by growing government.
No. It's not a matter of less government vs. more government. I used to think that and thankfully have seen the flaw in that logic.

It's about SMART government. Now that may just be a different pipedream but nonetheless.
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Old 05-24-2012, 06:56 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
1 is pretty crackers. He's not bad on 2, however. Employers are squeezing the shit out of their workforce, giving paltry raises and refusing ot hire additional workers, relying on the weak job market to force employees to stay in place.

I'm seeing it and hearing about it all over the place.

The issue isn't ALL salary workers, it's that too many workers in the Administrative category really shouldn't be allowed to be exempt in the first place. Sure, senior management and highly paid professionals etc. shouldn't get overtime -- they're paid massive amounts. But support staff working $40K or whatever per year? Yeah, no.
Then you'll just see employers start to convert salaried workers and cut their hourly pay rates to ensure that the 'overtime' doesn't make them any more expensive.

And they'll rely on the same bad job market to make it doable.

The trade-off for a guaranteed salary is the understanding that you'll work as hard and as long as needed to get your job done. If your employer expands those job requirements, so be it. Ultimately, they can do that to an hourly worker just as easily as a salaried worker.

As to the underlying premise of the article: It's just another ruse by the government to increase spending and make a political talking point of it. I'm done extending these jokers credit or the benefit of the doubt. I could get behind legislation that fundamentally alters entitlement programs, notably Medicare/caid/SSI that also includes a second stimulus, but only if they happen concurrently and only if the provisions are mandated.
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Old 05-24-2012, 08:25 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
1 is pretty crackers. He's not bad on 2, however. Employers are squeezing the shit out of their workforce, giving paltry raises and refusing ot hire additional workers, relying on the weak job market to force employees to stay in place.

I'm seeing it and hearing about it all over the place.

The issue isn't ALL salary workers, it's that too many workers in the Administrative category really shouldn't be allowed to be exempt in the first place. Sure, senior management and highly paid professionals etc. shouldn't get overtime -- they're paid massive amounts. But support staff working $40K or whatever per year? Yeah, no.
Why is #1 crackers? A stronger $ seems to always coincide with a stronger economy. Intentionaly keeping the $ weak is hurting us on several fronts.
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Old 05-24-2012, 08:55 PM   #30
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Why is #1 crackers? A stronger $ seems to always coincide with a stronger economy. Intentionaly keeping the $ weak is hurting us on several fronts.
Think about it. What you're talking about is deflation. Which would make current products or services worth less.

Didn't work too great in the Great Depression.
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