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Old 06-01-2012, 07:12 AM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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Jobs report. Sounds bad on first look

http://campaign2012.washingtonexamin...inwreck/574026
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Old 06-01-2012, 07:37 AM   #2
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This doesn't sound bad it is bad. Horrible Horrible Horrible..

A couple more of these and we will be welcoming President Romney.
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Old 06-01-2012, 07:42 AM   #3
Saul Good Saul Good is online now
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49,000 fewer jobs created the past 2 months than previously reported?

I'd like to buy stock in the words "unexpectedly" and "surprisingly" every month right before jobs numbers are posted.
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Old 06-01-2012, 07:57 AM   #4
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49,000 fewer jobs created the past 2 months than previously reported?

I'd like to buy stock in the words "unexpectedly" and "surprisingly" every month right before jobs numbers are posted.

"You know, in the private sector, you go to jail for what used they used to winkingly call "managing" earnings - using accounting gimmickry to nudge revenues and expenses from period to period in order to meet analysts' expectations or smooth volatility.

But in the realm of government data reporting, the art of data massage has become impressively robust.

For the 59th week of the last 60, the previous initial jobless claim report was revised upward, from 386,000 to 389,000. And once again, this enables the Labor Department to report a week-over-week decline in new jobless claims, from the adjusted 389,000 to an unadjusted 388,000. Upon next week's revision, this week will almost certainly have shown another increase.

If that sounds familiar, it may be because last week, the government reported a decline of 2,000 (but only after upwardly revising the previous week by 8,000).

Looking back over the last five weeks, the cumulative reported weekly changes (from previous weeks' adjusted data to the new unadjusted numbers) showed a net decline of 1,000, despite an actual cumulative net increase of 24,000. And that's without the 5th revision factored in, at which point the cumulative increase will be closer to 30,000.

In addition to serving as fodder for another round of "Jobless Claims Fall" headlines, this week's underestimate has the additional side effect of avoiding the probably true headline "Jobless Claims Reach New 2012 High" from being written (at least for another week). They started at 390,000 in early January and, assuming next week brings an upward revision of more than 2,000 (revisions have ranged from +3,000 to +10,000 over the last month), then we're already sitting at year-to-date highs.

The lie of unadjusted unemployment claims at least used to be a predictable one. For the last year or so, the upward revision was almost invariably 3,000 or 4,000. While last week's oops was only 3,000, the two preceeding weeks were truly wild pitches that needed revisions of 8,000 and 10,000. So we no longer have the luxury of appplying a known truth adjustment factor to reveal the real data. Alas, the only thing we know for sure is that initial unemployment claims are some amount higher than 388,000."
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:11 AM   #5
Fairplay Fairplay is offline
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In general how many jobs should be created monthly and lets presume it is in normal economic conditions.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:16 AM   #6
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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In general how many jobs should be created monthly and lets presume it is in normal economic conditions.
Right now most economisits would probably tell you we need to be creating 300k-350k jobs a month to get the economy really growing.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:17 AM   #7
Saul Good Saul Good is online now
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In general how many jobs should be created monthly and lets presume it is in normal economic conditions.
It takes almost 90,000 per month just to keep the employment level flat due to new people entering the workforce (minus retirees leaving) plus immigration.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:19 AM   #8
Fairplay Fairplay is offline
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Thank you gentlemen for your quick responses.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:19 AM   #9
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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It's safe to say that Obama's policies are not having the effect he wants. When you hear business people talk from CEO's to Mutual Fund Managers and the like the one phrase that is constantly repeated is "confusion about future policy" or similar. Business are making record profits because they have very lean staffs they are working into the ground. They refuse to hire though because our government has provided nothing of certainty related to economic policy.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:24 AM   #10
mikey23545 mikey23545 is offline
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The U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, well below expectations of 150,000 job gains, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Not only did BLS report terrible numbers for May, but it made downward revisions to previous months job growth numbers, which were already considered weak. The economy is now said to have added 143,000 jobs in March (instead of 154,000) and just 77,000 jobs in April (instead of 115,000).

The unemployment rate crept up slightly to 8.2 percent.

The awful numbers, coming on top of a downward revision in first quarter economic growth to 1.9 percent, make President Obama's reelection campaign a lot more difficult and play right into the hands of Mitt Romney's economic message.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexamin...inwreck/574026


Just wait until they revise May's numbers downward.

Of course those numbers will be buried somewhere in the back pages of the NYT, just like always.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:31 AM   #11
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By the way, isn't it about time for an article about Romney shoving another boy when he was 6 years old?
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:37 AM   #12
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Even the heavily massaged unemployment rate figure ticked upward. And this is still not a measure of true unemployment. U6 unemployment increased from 14.5% to 14.8%. Three times the increase of the heavily managed "unemployment rate" figure. When Obama took office U6 was 14.2%. Today it's 14.8%.

Looking closer, U6 had actually been trickling downward since last year but now it's rising again. Still, it's a far cry from the 8-9% that typifies the prosperous period between 2000-2008.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:50 AM   #13
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Even the heavily massaged unemployment rate figure ticked upward. And this is still not a measure of true unemployment. U6 unemployment increased from 14.5% to 14.8%. Three times the increase of the heavily managed "unemployment rate" figure. When Obama took office U6 was 14.2%. Today it's 14.8%.

Looking closer, U6 had actually been trickling downward since last year but now it's rising again. Still, it's a far cry from the 8-9% that typifies the prosperous period between 2000-2008.
It's Bush's fault. We should start seeing Obama's policies take effect by Year 6 or so. Just have to be patient.
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Old 06-01-2012, 08:56 AM   #14
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I only pause to comment that during the Bush years, when Democrats posted anything like this, we'd get hammered with "you WANT this bad news. You love it! You're rooting for us to lose in Iraq!! Why don't you ever post any of the good news?!?"

So if Romney wins and Democrats start once again posting the bad news, please check your hypocrisy at the door. That is all.
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Old 06-01-2012, 09:05 AM   #15
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I only pause to comment that during the Bush years, when Democrats posted anything like this, we'd get hammered with "you WANT this bad news. You love it! You're rooting for us to lose in Iraq!! Why don't you ever post any of the good news?!?"

So if Romney wins and Democrats start once again posting the bad news, please check your hypocrisy at the door. That is all.
That all you got, ambulance chaser?
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