Please, god: the housing market may be starting to recover.

[Direckshun]

Took us long enough. Jesus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/bu...-way.html?_r=2

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
Published: June 27, 2012

WASHINGTON — Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.

The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.

Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.

“I just had a home that wasn’t supposed to go on the market for two weeks sold before it even went on the market,” Mr. Niece said. “It’s definitely a lot different than what we saw” during the last few summers.

Like the economic recovery that began three years ago, what happens next is likely to prove a little disappointing. The pace of recovery will probably be slow, and the prices of many homes will continue to decline.

Millions of people remain underwater, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth, and unable to sell. Millions of families still face foreclosure. And a setback in the still-fragile economic recovery could easily reverse the uptick in housing prices, too.

But roughly six years after the housing market began its longest and deepest slide since the Great Depression, a growing number of experts and people who actually put money into housing believe the end has come.

“Our sense is that the market is recovering, and we’re extremely confident that it’s not going to get worse,” said Ronnie Morgan, a San Diego real estate professional who recently created a $10 million partnership to buy foreclosed homes. The group, Alegria Real Estate Funds, already has bought about 20 homes in suburban communities, most of which they plan to hold as rental properties.

“It feels very much like we’ve hit a bottom and we’re starting to come off of that bottom,” said Stuart Miller, chief executive of Lennar, a major national home builder based in Miami. The company said Wednesday that second-quarter profits were higher than expected, and orders for new homes rose 40 percent.

“I’m a little nervous,” Mr. Miller quickly added in a conference call with analysts, “about saying the word ‘recovery.’ ”

The trend is clear in the data. The widely respected S.&P./Case-Shiller index reported earlier this week that sales prices for existing homes rose in April for the first time this year. Several other measures, including a seasonally adjusted version of the index, show that price increases began in February. The pace of housing construction has increased. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that pending home sales climbed to the highest level since the end of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers in September 2010.

This is the fourth consecutive year that the housing market has shown signs of revival, and each previous episode ended with prices renewing their downward slide.

But with each passing year, an eventual recovery has grown more likely. Prices have continued to fall, and the economy has continued to recover, a combination that has expanded the pool of potential buyers. The population has continued to grow while few new homes have been built.

Basic indicators of market health that bulged during the bubble, like the ratio of housing prices to income, have returned to more normal levels.

Government efforts to help homeowners have intensified, allowing more borrowers to refinance or avoid foreclosure.

“All bets are off if anything happens to the economy, but apart from that, I think the fundamentals look better than they’ve looked in 17 or 18 years,” said Richard K. Green, a professor of real estate at the University of Southern California.

Professor Green cited the combination of rising rents and low mortgage rates as a powerful inducement to potential buyers, both renters who would prefer to own and investors who want to become landlords.

“Compared to a lot of other investments right now this looks pretty good,” he said.

The influx of investors is a major reason that the market is looking stronger. Mr. Morgan, 56, built apartments before the housing crash. In 2010, seeing a new opportunity, he and some friends started bidding at the foreclosure auctions then held on the steps of the San Diego County Courthouse.

At first they bought properties to renovate and resell. Now they are focused on potential rental properties in the kinds of gated, planned communities in suburban San Diego that once were populated almost exclusively by people who owned their homes. Some of their tenants are former homeowners.

And competition has increased. The auctions were moved from the courthouse steps last year because the crowds had grown too large.

“There’s not a whole lot of other places to put your money,” Mr. Morgan said.

There are still reasons for caution. An unusually warm winter seems to have given a temporary and misleading boost to a range of economic indicators.

The pace of economic growth remains slow and fragile, shadowed by the risk that politicians in Europe and Washington will fail to address looming problems.

And the rise in prices is happening despite the vast number of vacant houses awaiting buyers, up to two million more than the normal level, with several million more houses still at risk of being foreclosed.

But this “shadow inventory” is not distributed uniformly, according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. Even within metropolitan areas like Phoenix, the vacant houses are clustered in less desirable neighborhoods, while buyers are seeking homes in areas where there are few vacancies.

Under these circumstances, the researchers concluded, “It is possible for us to see both house price increases and excess housing supply at the same time.”

Indeed, in a growing number of areas demand for homes is outstripping supply.

The number of homes for sale has been falling for more than a year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Some owners are waiting for prices to rise; some of them must wait because they are underwater.

Mr. Niece, the Minnesota real estate agent, said he and his partner had seen their book of listings decline from about 120 properties to 70 properties, about 45 of which already are under contract.

“I have buyers every single day complaining that they can’t find houses,” he said.

Driving through a neighboring suburb last week, Mr. Niece said that he passed a sign outside another real estate office that read, “The market is great. We’ve sold all of our inventory. We need listings.”

[FD]

Originally Posted by CLX

In the past the debt has not been anywhere near the level it is now and where it will be going due to AHCA (Obamacare) and other give away programs in the government. As it stands now our gross national product is less than the current debt. In recent years, last 40, we have never paid off the debt, we have paid towards it but I would bet we are nearing the point, if we haven't already achieved the distinction, our annual payments may not even cover the interest on the debt.

If you want to think we will pay the debt of, then more power to you. To achieve a payoff our taxes, for all people in the nation, would virtually take all of our paychecks for several years.

At the end of the day the statement stands, we cannot keep borrowing to run the nation. Revenue in to the tax coffers should be the only money the government is allowed to spend. When the money runs out what do you do? When my money runs out I can no longer purchase stuff, I do not run a deficit household.

You are confusing the idea of paying off the debt with repaying our debt. They are different.

How do you think the U.S. can borrow money at rates lower than we have ever seen in our history if we aren't going to repay that money?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Cannibal

funny that right wingers would actually root against the housing market.

I mean, can you actually get more partisan than that? Actually rooting against your own home value? HAHA!

****in assholes... holy Jesus.

Yeah, you can. Just look back 7 or 8 years and you will find left wingers rooting against their own troops on the battlefield and celebrating death toll milestones.

[CLX]

Originally Posted by FD

You are confusing the idea of paying off the debt with repaying our debt. They are different.

How do you think the U.S. can borrow money at rates lower than we have ever seen in our history if we aren't going to repay that money?

How much debt does the U.S. currently carry? $16.4 Trillion? What is the GNP of the U.S.? How often have you seen the national debt go down?

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=...25ACD5812D98F#

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=...747651216ED52#

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=...61&FORM=IQFRBA

Show me in the chart of your choice where the national debt has been decreased. I don't think you understand we have gone beyond the amount anyone feels we could ever pay back, that's why we have lost credit rating. Borrowing more doesn't help. If you loan me $1,000,000 a year and I only pay back interest, if that, are you going to keep loaning me the money with hopes that someday you will get your money back?

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by FD

How do you think the U.S. can borrow money at rates lower than we have ever seen in our history if we aren't going to repay that money?

The US Treasury prints it and lends it to the US Fed.

The US government is both creditor and debtor.

Amazing, isn't it?

[CLX]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

The US Treasury prints it and lends it to the US Fed.

The US government is both creditor and debtor.

Amazing, isn't it?

I don't think you'll make him understand.

Everything is OK, please go back to your evening TV shows!

[FD]

Originally Posted by CLX

I don't think you'll make him understand.

Everything is OK, please go back to your evening TV shows!

The Fed buys only a portion of the debt. The value of it is set by the marginal investor, which is not the Fed. Currently, our debt is so highly valued that once you account for inflation the interest rate we owe on it is actually negative. Pretty sweet deal for money we are never paying back, I suppose.

[blaise]

Originally Posted by Cannibal

funny that right wingers would actually root against the housing market.

I mean, can you actually get more partisan than that? Actually rooting against your own home value? HAHA!

****in assholes... holy Jesus.

Totally different than when liberals posted bad economic news with glee before Obama became President.

You're right. Partisanship is limited to one party.

[Direckshun]

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/econ...2008-1B8014466

Housing starts climb to highest rate since June 2008
Reuters
8 hours ago

Groundbreaking to build new homes accelerated in December to its fastest pace in over four years, supporting the view that housing is poised to provide a substantial boost to the U.S. economy.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that starts at building sites for homes surged 12.1 percent last month to a 954,000-unit annual rate.

Data for U.S. housing starts can be volatile and is sometimes subject to large revisions. The government revised downward its estimate for November housing starts to a 851,000-unit rate from the originally reported 861,000.

"Housing is definitely a pocket of strength. It's not only on the back on the bounce from hurricane Sandy. This was broad-based," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.

Some of the strength in December's reading for starts came from a 20.3 percent surge in multi-family unit construction. That component is especially volatile.

Wednesday's report nonetheless builds on a trend in growth that has led many analysts to expect residential construction boosted the economy last year for the first time since 2005.

December's pace of groundbreaking was the fastest since June 2008.

This year, home building is expected to provide stronger support to economic growth, which would partially counter the drag expected from tighter fiscal policy as Washington works to shrink the federal budget deficit.

Permits for future home construction edged higher to a 903,000-unit rate, the quickest since July 2008.

The housing market has regained some footing after a historic collapse that helped push the economy into its worst recession since the Great Depression.

Last month, groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, climbed 8.1 percent last month to a 616,000-unit pace.

[blaise]

Good news Obama.
Bad news Bush.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by blaise

Good news Obama.
Bad news Bush.

Really, it is hard to argue with that. Truth is truth.

[BucEyedPea]

It's another bubble courtesy of the Keynesians at the Fed. It will lead down the same path with a bust eventually too.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/econ...2008-1B8014466

Housing starts climb to highest rate since June 2008
Reuters
8 hours ago

That doesn't sound like such a positive headline to me. Were housing starts blowing people away in June 2008?

When Obama-era economic news starts topping the best economic news of some recent President not named Obama, let me know.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by FD

The Fed buys only a portion of the debt. The value of it is set by the marginal investor, which is not the Fed. Currently, our debt is so highly valued that once you account for inflation the interest rate we owe on it is actually negative. Pretty sweet deal for money we are never paying back, I suppose.

Yes, the largest portion:

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-owns-us-debt-2011-7#

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