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Old 07-19-2012, 02:23 PM  
ChiefaRoo ChiefaRoo is offline
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Obama is going to lose big time

I'm calling it. The guy is going to lose in an electoral landslide.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:02 PM   #361
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nate Silver has Romney's chance of winning the election at 8%...... 8 ****ing %.

Now, you can ignore scientific evidence. Too many do in the Republican party But Nate has a excellent track record of his predictions.

Romney in a landslide
Not true. Current predictions from Silver are 21.4% for Romney:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...r/nate-silver/
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:08 PM   #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Other than the polls and media reports, do you see anything in your real life that tells you that Obama is going to win? Do you see a lot of pro-Obama passion in your neighborhood or among your co-workers (or fellow students if that's the case)? Do you see a lot of positive improvements provided by the Obama administration over the past 4 years that you think will move people to support him in the upcoming election?
I showed you the pic of my neighborhood. Every corner had an Obama sign in their yard. Obama has strong support here. Upper and lower middle classm couple of colleges near by.

There are 3 neighbors hosting an Obama volunteer from the north down here to help win Florida. I've put our spare room on the website too. At least 5-6 people are on the street corner of a major intersection every weekend holding up Obama posters. There hasnt been any Romeny signs but have been some connie Mack signs.

It's the bubble Patteau.You need to get out every once in a while. It wont change your core beliefs but maybe, just maybe you can better understand how someone could still support someone who underperformed at the highest level.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:09 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Not true. Current predictions from Silver are 21.4% for Romney:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...r/nate-silver/
Click on the now cast button. Thats todays forecast.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:23 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
just maybe you can better understand how someone could still support someone who underperformed at the highest level.
He understands perfectly he voted for Bush\Cheney twice
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:24 PM   #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Click on the now cast button. Thats todays forecast.
It's a rolling forecast. What you're doing is cherry-picking the daily numbers to get a more favorable result. 21.4% is the correct number. If the daily numbers are accurate and not an outlier, you will see that reflected in the forecast in the days to come.

The "Nowcast" is a snapshot of what the election would look like if it were to be held today. It is not a prediction of future election results.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:31 PM   #366
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Also, the "Nowcast" simply looks at current polls. The forecast is the one that looks at economic indicators and historical data. The forecast actually weights the newer polls more conservatively than preexisting polls so the new data is going to be far less reliable:

Quote:
The sweet spot for model updates will be in the late afternoon or early evening. Polls generally come out in two batches: some in the early morning to catch the top of the news cycle, and some in the late afternoon to catch the evening news. Also, the economic index in our model uses the stock market along with other factors, and the market closes at 4 p.m. So youíll more often see our updates in the p.m. hours, but there will be exceptions, especially when there is a large volume of new polling.

For the time being, you should generally not expect to see huge changes in the numbers unless there is major economic news. The model is designed to be quite conservative about how it weighs new polls at this early stage, and a couple of new surveys will rarely make more than a marginal difference.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...model-updates/
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:36 PM   #367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
The "Nowcast" is a snapshot of what the election would look like if it were to be held today. It is not a prediction of future election results.
I'm just tweaking Patteau. I remember last election where he said the same thing. The polls are wrong. McCain is going to win, no one wants Obama to win.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:39 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I'm just tweaking Patteau. I remember last election where he said the same thing. The polls are wrong. McCain is going to win, no one wants Obama to win.
I doubt that is true.

We have seen polling outfits themselves begin to introduce bias by over sampling democrats. Different methodologies produce different results. Not all polls are created equal.

This election will be about who is trusted more on the economy.

Will it be Brewster who vaporized $4 trillion and has nothing to show for it? Laughable if we swallow that bait.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:43 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
I doubt that is true.

We have seen polling outfits themselves begin to introduce bias by over sampling democrats. Different methodologies produce different results. Not all polls are created equal.

This election will be about who is trusted more on the economy.

Will it be Brewster who vaporized $4 trillion and has nothing to show for it? Laughable if we swallow that bait.
The bubble dude, the bubble.... get out and smell the facts.

Nate Silver knows his shit. It's not biased towards the Dems in the slighest. He's the most respected numbers guy in the USA.

You might not like his numbers but that still doesnt make him bias or wrong.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:46 PM   #370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Other than the polls and media reports, do you see anything in your real life that tells you that Obama is going to win? Do you see a lot of pro-Obama passion in your neighborhood or among your co-workers (or fellow students if that's the case)? Do you see a lot of positive improvements provided by the Obama administration over the past 4 years that you think will move people to support him in the upcoming election?
There's no passion for Mitt Romney. I think he's a good candidate, but nobody cares about him.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:49 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
The bubble dude, the bubble.... get out and smell the facts.

Nate Silver knows his shit. It's not biased towards the Dems in the slighest. He's the most respected numbers guy in the USA.

You might not like his numbers but that still doesnt make him bias or wrong.
Lets be honest, you respect him because you just like what he is saying, not for any empirical reason. (the Obama of pollsters?)
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Old 09-14-2012, 05:15 PM   #372
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Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
Lets be honest, you respect him because you just like what he is saying, not for any empirical reason. (the Obama of pollsters?)
yeah just ignore my factual points and dismiss it as a partisan take.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 05:16 PM   #373
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Old 09-14-2012, 05:36 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
Lets be honest, you respect him because you just like what he is saying, not for any empirical reason. (the Obama of pollsters?)
Jfc go read up on his work. The guy has the probabilities for elections based on multiple polls pretty good. Quit being a lazy ****stick.
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Old 09-14-2012, 07:13 PM   #375
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Horrible... horrible comparison.

What an asshole.
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