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Old 07-20-2012, 10:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth
In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion
Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 09:54 AM..
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:06 AM   #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
A raise of the debt ceiling is a big deal in these talks, say some insiders on TPM:
The bottom line: Republicans are worried about the debt, democrats are worried about the debt ceiling.
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Old 11-28-2012, 10:08 AM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
The bottom line: Republicans are worried about the debt, democrats are worried about the debt ceiling.
Progressive democrats don't actually care about red ink anyway. Romney care runs in the red in Mass and they're content to leave it like that because it's meaningless to them. Meanwhile, they enjoy the federal funds from Medicaid to offset some of it too.
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Old 11-28-2012, 12:12 PM   #258
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Mortgage interest deduction is on the table.

So the middle class will be a part of tax rates going up.
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Old 11-28-2012, 12:46 PM   #259
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Old 11-28-2012, 01:20 PM   #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
This is an example of why Grover Norquist and many Republicans are so insistent that taxes not be raised. Increased revenue will have already been spent by Congress instead of being used to reduce the deficit, especially (but not exclusively) when democrats are in control.
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Old 11-28-2012, 02:08 PM   #261
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...s=rss_politics

White House wants $25 billion included for small business tax cuts.
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Old 11-28-2012, 02:23 PM   #262
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84304.html

Congressional Democrats souring on entitlement cuts.

Not that it matters -- they'll fall in line with Obama's negotiations.
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Old 11-28-2012, 02:26 PM   #263
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The fiscal cliff hits on December 31st, but the real collapse would actually stall off for a couple months.

February would be when the fiscal cliff would potentially start plunging us into another recession. Not December.
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Old 11-28-2012, 02:58 PM   #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...s=rss_politics

White House wants $25 billion included for small business tax cuts.
I take it that they want to create more loopholes?
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Old 11-28-2012, 03:17 PM   #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
This is an example of why Grover Norquist and many Republicans are so insistent that taxes not be raised. Increased revenue will inevitably be spent by Congress instead of being used to reduce the deficit, especially (but not exclusively) when democrats are in control.
The CBO just concluded that extended unemployment aid would buoy the economy by 300,000 jobs.
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Old 11-28-2012, 03:26 PM   #266
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Amazing math they do there
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Old 11-28-2012, 03:29 PM   #267
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300,000 new jobs would create 600,000 new jobs and cut spending on unemployment at same time....
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Old 11-28-2012, 04:01 PM   #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The CBO just concluded that extended unemployment aid would buoy the economy by 300,000 jobs.
We should put everyone on unemployment then!
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Old 11-28-2012, 04:02 PM   #269
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Amazing math they do there
Truly amazing.
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Old 11-28-2012, 04:04 PM   #270
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They way I read it, it would not be an increase in jobs, but a "saving" of 300,000 jobs.
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