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Old 07-20-2012, 11:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion

Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 10:54 AM..
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:03 PM   #316
RaiderH8r RaiderH8r is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I don't think you know how negotiating works.

To summarize your position:

POTUS offers a 1.6T plan = weird.

Republican House offers nothing = not weird.
The President's plan is patently absurd and laughable. He taxes high, cuts nothing, demands more be spent on stimulus, and demands the debt ceiling be eliminated. Just how far up one's ass does one's head have to be to see that the President offered nothing? Absolutely nothing.
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:04 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
The GOP brought ideas to the table for three years while the Senate diddled and did nothing in terms of passing a budget. What the President handed over yesterday was essentially his last budget proposal which...wait for it...was voted down by the Senate 96-0. The only people that didn't vote against it didn't vote at all. FAIL

Obama is failing America and God willing historians will recognize it even if the slapdick American voting populace doesn't.
I've only recently realized that the morons on Jersey Shore are the regular people and we're the weirdos.
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:11 PM   #318
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Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
The President's plan is patently absurd and laughable. He taxes high, cuts nothing, demands more be spent on stimulus, and demands the debt ceiling be eliminated. Just how far up one's ass does one's head have to be to see that the President offered nothing? Absolutely nothing.
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:11 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I've only recently realized that the morons on Jersey Shore are the regular people and we're the weirdos.
Oh yeah. Look around. The average American voter barely reads at a 9th grade level and yet presumes to understand the nuance and intricacy of the most convoluted tax and budgeting system in the history of the world. Nope. They'll lap up soaking the rich ignoring the fact that the overwhelming majority of those that fit the bill for Obama's tax hike are the same people paying their wages. And Obama still has the grapes to say he's supporting small businesses in America? He's ****ing lying.

American oil and natural gas has experienced a revolution, in spite of this Administration and economy, during the recession, American made energy, American made jobs, American made salaries, and Obama is attacking them and other fossil energy sectors for providing good paying, middle class jobs, to Americans who otherwise would be suffering under the Obama economy. Again, Obama lies and Americans are too patently stupid to recognize the incongruity between not just Obama's words and deeds, but between his words from one sentence to the next.

Americans have it in their head that greatness is a birthright. They're wrong. Let's go off the cliff. Let Medicare go insolvent. Let it collapse. **** it. Those that can succeed will continue to succeed in whatever world may come. Those that fail will fail and in a world where the safety nets are gone they'll plummet to their demise and all by their own doing.
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:21 PM   #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
The President's plan is patently absurd and laughable. He taxes high, cuts nothing, demands more be spent on stimulus, and demands the debt ceiling be eliminated. Just how far up one's ass does one's head have to be to see that the President offered nothing? Absolutely nothing.
House Republicans are in a terrible negotiating position (see, e.g. defense cuts from sequestration and middle class tax increases if Congress fails to act) and are being treated accordingly.

Don't act shocked Obama's not offering last year's deal.

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Old 11-30-2012, 02:34 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
What is Obama willing to own? Tax increases on the rich? How courageous.
Last I checked, tax increases are unpopular, as they should be. The only reason they poll well is that people are implicitly comparing them to cuts to Medicare and other programs now and later.

The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire whether congress does anything or not. There is no leverage there. Somehow though, conventional wisdom has it that there should be a grand bargain. This represents a very rare opportunity for us to make real and lasting cuts to Medicare. The fact that the Republicans currently in congress risk squandering that by sitting on their hands and not putting forward any cuts is mind-boggling.

They need to get their act together, get Ryan out front with serious cuts in hand, and make a deal. Trying to shame Obama into proposing them for political cover is going to backfire.
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Old 11-30-2012, 02:37 PM   #322
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Also, good on Obama for refusing to require major changes to Social Security in exchange for allowing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% to expire.
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Old 11-30-2012, 04:18 PM   #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FD View Post
Last I checked, tax increases are unpopular, as they should be. The only reason they poll well is that people are implicitly comparing them to cuts to Medicare and other programs now and later.
You contradict yourself. In any event, you admit that tax increases on people "wealthier than me" are significantly more popular these days than the types of spending cuts our country needs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FD View Post
The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire whether congress does anything or not. There is no leverage there. Somehow though, conventional wisdom has it that there should be a grand bargain. This represents a very rare opportunity for us to make real and lasting cuts to Medicare. The fact that the Republicans currently in congress risk squandering that by sitting on their hands and not putting forward any cuts is mind-boggling.

They need to get their act together, get Ryan out front with serious cuts in hand, and make a deal. Trying to shame Obama into proposing them for political cover is going to backfire.
So in the immediate aftermath of a rejection at the polls, you're expecting the rebuked party to push forward with their unpopular agenda while the guy who won the election wraps himself in comfortably popular proposals so that he gets to be the guy who softens the unpopular proposals if he even ends up accepting any compromise at all? I'm not sure what you mean by backfire, but I'm not so sure I care if it does.
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Old 11-30-2012, 04:34 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You contradict yourself. In any event, you admit that tax increases on people "wealthier than me" are significantly more popular these days than the types of spending cuts our country needs.



So in the immediate aftermath of a rejection at the polls, you're expecting the rebuked party to push forward with their unpopular agenda while the guy who won the election wraps himself in comfortably popular proposals so that he gets to be the guy who softens the unpopular proposals if he even ends up accepting any compromise at all? I'm not sure what you mean by backfire, but I'm not so sure I care if it does.
By backfire I mean we end up with no deal. Middle class tax cuts are extended and high end tax cuts aren't. No real spending cuts.

Ultimately both parties are going to vote on the deal or it doesn't happen. The votes matter more than who proposes what. My point is the guys in the House are being needlessly timid and/or obstructionist for its own sake and are squandering a golden opportunity.
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Old 11-30-2012, 08:55 PM   #325
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**** it, time to piss off the cliff.

The party that holds both the presidency and senate have no clue and no ideas how to keep the impending disaster from happening. Let it happen.

If I were republicans at this point after the election I'd say ok, we'll talk tax increases if spending and entitlements are on the table. Otherwise just walk away.

Let the great Obama economy be named for what it really has always been.
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Old 11-30-2012, 09:18 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
**** it, time to piss off the cliff.

The party that holds both the presidency and senate have no clue and no ideas how to keep the impending disaster from happening. Let it happen.

If I were republicans at this point after the election I'd say ok, we'll talk tax increases if spending and entitlements are on the table. Otherwise just walk away.

Let the great Obama economy be named for what it really has always been.
why do you want to piss off the cliff? i never try to pick a fight with rocks that are bigger than i am...

what ideas and clues do you have for avoiding the cliff? i've heard several scenarios but none of them seem likely to be able to pass the house...

what have the republicans offered in the way of clues and ideas? do they have any specific proposals for dealing with the cliff and long term deficit reduction?

limiting deductions etc. doesn't add up to anywhere near the level of revenue needed to address the deficit, where does the other revenue come from?

what ideas and/or proposals have the house republicans made to the wh in terms of specific cuts to medicare and medicaid and specific proposals to cut big bird and other programs?

seems like both sides should try harder to get a clue and put some ideas on the table...

as far as talking about tax increases only if spending cuts and entitlement reform are on the table, my understanding is that they are on the table in general terms...

we need both sides to discuss the issues in specific terms and try to reach a compromise on each of them...

obtw, i saw that bill clinton is being touted for entering the negotiations on behalf of the wh and getting geitner the hell away from them...
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Old 11-30-2012, 09:29 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
why do you want to piss off the cliff? i never try to pick a fight with rocks that are bigger than i am...

what ideas and clues do you have for avoiding the cliff? i've heard several scenarios but none of them seem likely to be able to pass the house...

what have the republicans offered in the way of clues and ideas? do they have any specific proposals for dealing with the cliff and long term deficit reduction?

limiting deductions etc. doesn't add up to anywhere near the level of revenue needed to address the deficit, where does the other revenue come from?

what ideas and/or proposals have the house republicans made to the wh in terms of specific cuts to medicare and medicaid and specific proposals to cut big bird and other programs?

seems like both sides should try harder to get a clue and put some ideas on the table...

as far as talking about tax increases only if spending cuts and entitlement reform are on the table, my understanding is that they are on the table in general terms...

we need both sides to discuss the issues in specific terms and try to reach a compromise on each of them...

obtw, i saw that bill clinton is being touted for entering the negotiations on behalf of the wh and getting geitner the hell away from them...
What has Obama suggested other than a tax increase on the rich that will only pay for the government for what, 8 days?

Obama won the election. Time for him to lead from the front instead of hiding like the pussy he is.
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Old 11-30-2012, 09:45 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
What has Obama suggested other than a tax increase on the rich that will only pay for the government for what, 8 days?

Obama won the election. Time for him to lead from the front instead of hiding like the pussy he is.
he proposed some fairly minor cuts to medicare, way below any serious level of discussion, but it's an opening...

and he's left open the amount of rate increase that he would accept for the "rich"...

but he's made a demand for tax revenue that is completely and totally unrealistic...

not much of a proposal and not much specifics, but it's a start...

wrt to the pp leading i might ask why exactly do you think obama is even capable of leading in a way that you might find acceptable?

i don't think he is myself, that's why i was so intrigued by the suggestion of bringing in clinton to negotiate for obama...
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:41 PM   #329
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Dems: Tax the rich now, we'll maybe consider talking about getting together to think about cutting spending later on


Repubs: **** you! You want tax hikes? Give us spending cuts

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This country is so ****ed
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Old 12-01-2012, 09:35 AM   #330
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The President is the leader, and supposedly the one with the "mandate". He needs to set forth a COMPLETE proposal for dealing with the cliff. Instead, he just touts taxing the rich to win points with his base, while expecting the R's to propose all of the unpopular cuts.

None of this is going to be pretty, both sides are going to wind up with some mud on them. Obama is trying to avoid the mud and come out of the negotiations looking pretty, which is more than he deserves, considering his policies are a significant reason the country is facing the cliff to begin with.

Once the President proposes a complete plan with what he wants, then true negotiations can begin.
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