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Old 07-20-2012, 11:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion

Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 10:54 AM..
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:10 PM   #601
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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...cliff-mas.html

House Republicans Again Show Why We Need to Wait Until January for a Deal
By Jonathan Chait
Yesterday at 4:05 PM

For about half a day, in the wake of President Obama’s most recent budget compromise, it appeared that an agreement might be close at hand. Boehner was reported to be taking the temperature of his crazies on Obama’s plan. But then Drudge began freaking out (Headline: “SPEAKER SUICIDE: MORE TAXES, MORE DEBT”), and soon it emerged that Boehner was actually talking up a “Plan B,” about which more below. What will probably become apparent, perhaps after House Republicans vote down Obama’s final deal, is that the notion of a grand bargain between Obama and Boehner to avert the “fiscal cliff” was always going to be the hardest way to solve this problem.

The most interesting development of the last 24 hours is that Boehner has begun to define his position in new, concrete terms: a dollar of spending cuts for every dollar of revenue. The two parties are arguing over whether Obama’s offer qualifies. By Obama’s definition, it does easily. Obama is counting the spending cuts agreed to in the summer of 2011, which also established the budget sequester, as the first part of the bargain. He’s also counting the decreased amount of money that will be spent on interest — a budget accounting method Republicans have used repeatedly but now deride because it increases their leverage to do so. Boehner refuses to count either one, and so by Boehner’s math, Obama falls short of the one-to-one standard.

Boehner’s “Plan B” is an updated version of the short-lived Republican “Doomsday Plan.” The Doomsday Plan was to extend all of the Bush tax cuts for income under $250,000 a year and then promise a big fight later. Plan B is to try to peel apart Democrats in the Senate by passing a bigger tax cut, reaching higher up the income range — up to $1,000,000 a year. The idea would be to put either Obama or Senate Democrats in a difficult spot. Some Democrats have previously suggested extending the Bush tax cuts for incomes up to a million dollars a year or some other threshold higher than Obama’s. The play here would be to split the Democrats up. Ideally, Senate Democrats would cave in, pass the House bill, and then Obama would be standing in the way of tax cuts for the middle class.

In fact, this would be a pretty easy tactic for Obama to block. Polls show strong support for his position — 69 percent told Politico they favor raising taxes on incomes over $250,000 a year. Strong majorities also approve of Obama’s handling of the fiscal cliff and disapprove of the Republicans'. Easy as it may be to insist politicians will win a fight if they stand firm for your position, in this case it’s true: Obama is not going to lose this fight if he stands firm.

What all this shows, again, is how much easier a deal gets in January. Once the Bush tax cuts for the rich have expired, then Obama doesn’t need to bargain for the revenue, and Republicans don’t need to vote to “give” it to him. All Obama needs at that point is another couple hundred billion dollars in revenue, against which he is offering some $800 billion in cuts.

Since the revenue from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for the rich will be already baked into the cake, Boehner can than persuade his caucus to vote for a tiny amount of new revenue, none requiring higher rates and perhaps even throwing in lower rates as an inducement, in return for real spending cuts. A 4:1 ratio of spending cuts to tax hikes, by Boehner’s own method of counting! An unbeatable deal.

In theory, this ought to be unnecessary. Everybody knows what happens in January. Both sides ought to be able to anticipate it and make the deal they could make then now. Business types have therefore assumed a December deal would happen. If this was a business deal between two rational people, that’s what would happen.

But we are not dealing with rational people here. We are dealing with House Republicans. As Republican Tom Cole gently put it, by way of describing his colleagues' implacable hatred of taxes, “It’s who they are. It’s the air they breathe. It’s what the Republican electorate produces.”

If Boehner strikes a deal before January, Republicans will suspect he gave away revenue he could have fought for. But if he refuses, the House Republicans will see for themselves what happens. The revenue will go away on its own, over Boehner’s objections. All Obama has to do is continue to make clear he will not under any circumstances extend any tax cuts on income over $250,000 a year. Then he has nearly all the revenue he needs, and he can offer Republicans a deal they would never walk away from. They might try to get that deal in December, but January remains the best bet.
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:12 PM   #602
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I think there are several ways to take this news:

1. Boehner has just blown up the fiscal cliff talks because he could not get the House GOP to accept his compromises.

2. Boehner and the House GOP are going to try to start negotiating with Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats instead of Obama.

3. This is one of just a series of cosmetic moves to convince the GOP base the House GOP are doing everything they can as they slowly cave to Obama demands.
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:35 PM   #603
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I think there are several ways to take this news:

1. Boehner has just blown up the fiscal cliff talks because he could not get the House GOP to accept his compromises.
Hurrah! That's what they were elected to do by their constituents. I thought you were BIG on democracy. What happened?

Quote:
2. Boehner and the House GOP are going to try to start negotiating with Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats instead of Obama.
Sounds like a good idea...although Reid has been a big barrier too.

Quote:
3. This is one of just a series of cosmetic moves to convince the GOP base the House GOP are doing everything they can as they slowly cave to Obama demands.
It's not cosmetic with those guys but anyway, what's wrong with that?

FACT is the a president isn't even supposed to have this much power to craft revenue based legislation. It is the sole province of the House. The power of the purse is power. You guys hate the Constitution's check and balances and think the Presidency is all.

I have news for you about January. The House is still in Republican hands. Not only that BUT it was moderate Republicans that lost their seats. There are even more Paulies elected. The new Democrats are more stridently left-wing. You hope for a deal with that mix?

Only I can see is that those lefties form a coalition with the Paulies for military spending cuts.
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:55 PM   #604
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I think there are several ways to take this news:

1. Boehner has just blown up the fiscal cliff talks because he could not get the House GOP to accept his compromises.

2. Boehner and the House GOP are going to try to start negotiating with Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats instead of Obama.

3. This is one of just a series of cosmetic moves to convince the GOP base the House GOP are doing everything they can as they slowly cave to Obama demands.
4. Boehner, 'We gave you tax hikes on millionaires that you asked for so suck it and have a Merry Christmas. When you're serious about actually leading the country give us a call from Hawaii'.
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:54 PM   #605
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
4. Boehner, 'We gave you tax hikes on millionaires that you asked for so suck it and have a Merry Christmas. When you're serious about actually leading the country give us a call from Hawaii'.
i have a niece who moved from springfield to hawaii...

absolutely loves it...

loves it so much she doesn't even mind the high prices of everything...

i'm jealous...
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:55 PM   #606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
4. Boehner, 'We gave you tax hikes on millionaires that you asked for so suck it and have a Merry Christmas. When you're serious about actually leading the country give us a call from Hawaii'.
when the speaker gets serious about leading the house, give the big o a call, ok?
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Old 12-19-2012, 10:03 PM   #607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
4. Boehner, 'We gave you tax hikes on millionaires that you asked for so suck it and have a Merry Christmas. When you're serious about actually leading the country give us a call from Hawaii'.
seriously, obama is underestimating the importance of republicans being able to see the deal as 1:1 by counting previously agreed-to cuts...

tax savings seem like a reasonable item to include as it is a decrease in costs like any other spending cut...

he has to make it palatable to the r's in the house, or at least a majority of them, and further cuts should be offered along with a demand to end periodic debt ceiling increases...

o'bama (sounds almost irish doesn't it?) needs to appreciate the republicans' position and negotiate towards what can be done rather than what he wishes could be done...
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:26 AM   #608
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You stupid people.

Obama doesn't give a rats ass if the 'fiscal cliff' is averted. Because he has cover. He wants taxes to go up. If a deal is struck its on his terms. If no deal is struck those evil extreme Republicans are to blame, not me. And the media will parrot this meme to death to get the public to go along with it.

Haven't all of you seen enough of this clown to know how he and his thug Chicago machine operates by now?
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:28 AM   #609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
You stupid people.

Obama doesn't give a rats ass if the 'fiscal cliff' is averted. Because he has cover. He wants taxes to go up. If a deal is struck its on his terms. If no deal is struck those evil extreme Republicans are to blame, not me. And the media will parrot this meme to death to get the public to go along with it.

Haven't all of you seen enough of this clown to know how he and his thug Chicago machine operates by now?
the left have blinders on
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:41 AM   #610
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
You stupid people.
This is a promising start.

I expect the wisdom to start flowing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
Obama doesn't give a rats ass if the 'fiscal cliff' is averted. Because he has cover. He wants taxes to go up. If a deal is struck its on his terms. If no deal is struck those evil extreme Republicans are to blame, not me. And the media will parrot this meme to death to get the public to go along with it.

Haven't all of you seen enough of this clown to know how he and his thug Chicago machine operates by now?
Holy talk radio, Batman!

Now that's how it's done.
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:55 AM   #611
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I can't wait to go over the cliff.

WHEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:08 PM   #612
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is a promising start.

I expect the wisdom to start flowing.



Holy talk radio, Batman!

Now that's how it's done.
Obama's gotta find someone new to blame now that blaming "problems inheretied from the previous administration" is pretty much off the table. It is truer now than ever but Obama can't use it.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:10 PM   #613
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
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Obama's gotta find someone new to blame now that blaming "problems inheretied from the previous administration" is pretty much off the table. It is truer now than ever but Obama can't use it.
I honestly don't even know what you're responding to.

Is this a response to a post I've made, some argument from earlier in the thread?

Or are you just like a Republican talking point jukebox. I just gotta put a quarter in you and some bullshit tune about leadership trails out.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:16 PM   #614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I honestly don't even know what you're responding to.

Is this a response to a post I've made, some argument from earlier in the thread?

Or are you just like a Republican talking point jukebox. I just gotta put a quarter in you and some bullshit tune about leadership trails out.
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=267861
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Old 12-20-2012, 01:12 PM   #615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I honestly don't even know what you're responding to.

Is this a response to a post I've made, some argument from earlier in the thread?

Or are you just like a Republican talking point jukebox. I just gotta put a quarter in you and some bullshit tune about leadership trails out.
Just an observation on Obama's entire approach to governance. Identify somebody else. Make it their problem. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
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You may think RaiderH8r is just a thinker. But Im not just a thinker. Im a doer. Every day I go out there, and rev that engine, fire it up, grab a hold of that line between speed and chaos, and wrestle it to the ground like a demon cobra. And when the fear rises up in my belly, I use it. Fear is powerful, because its been there for billions of years. And it is good. And I use it. And I ride it; I ride it like a skeleton horse through the gates of hell.
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RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RaiderH8r Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
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