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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:56 PM   #241
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That's only is guess. We won't have the info for another few days.

This is what he said about the person perceived to be the immediate winner of each debate

Quote:
Over all, the relationship between the winner of the instant-reaction poll and the change in head-to-head polls is positive, although not statistically significant.

But for what it’s worth, the historical data would project a gain of 2.2 percentage points for Mr. Romney in the head-to-head polls by this time next week.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.

Last edited by whoman69; 10-04-2012 at 01:10 PM..
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:49 PM   #242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
From the latest update:
Nate Silver is a lib who has about as much credibility as the rest of the MSM...
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Old 10-04-2012, 10:01 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Nate Silver is a lib who has about as much credibility as the rest of the MSM...
He's the best poll analyzer on the planet. Just ask Mr. Iowa Republican politics, Hoover his opinion of Silver's work.
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:04 PM   #244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
when will we get an update on this?
Unless there's some sort of backlash against Romney it hasn't hit yet. Numbers are showing the highest for Obama yet with a 87.1% chance of victory. The polls aren't going to show any post debate bounce for a few days yet. I'm sure that like the conventions that he is able to look beyond the polls to get a gauge on what is a temporary post debate bounce and what will be a more lasting trend. From what I've read in the articles, if the post debate swing is more than 2 points then the excess will be a trend.

Not much change in the state polls. NC is moving back again towards Obama though Romney is still about 60% there. IA and VA seem to be trending away from the Republican candidate as well with Iowa at over 77% and Virginia over 79%. Of all battleground states Romney currently only carries NC. The only other battle ground state at less than a 75% probability to Obama is FL which is over 69%.

On a national level 538 expects Obama to win the popular vote by 4.3% 51.6%-47.3%.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:06 AM   #245
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Expect post debate polls to first show on Tuesday.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-09-2012, 01:47 PM   #246
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We are getting to see the race post debate. The numbers looked to bounce to Romney early but many of those numbers are receding back to the pre-convention numbers that were close. As of last evening 538 had Obama with a still 74.8% chance of winning but his margins cut shorter in many battleground states that had seemed safe. It remains to be seen whether this is a bounce of will reflect a longer trend. The challenger often comes out with better numbers after the first debate as the nation has their first true visit with them. Iowa is below 70%, while Colorado and Virginia are closer to 60 %. Despite clamor, Romney is not seen to have really gotten into the race in Michigan. Ohio and Nevada are still between 75-79%. Florida is just barely lean Obama while North Carolina is over 70% for Romney for the first time. I wouldn't expect the numbers to really jump after the VP debate even if there is a "you are not Jack Kennedy" moment.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-09-2012, 01:53 PM   #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Unless there's some sort of backlash against Romney it hasn't hit yet. Numbers are showing the highest for Obama yet with a 87.1% chance of victory.



Romney is tied in two polls and leads in all others taken since the debate.

And the one he is tied is Rasmussen, which the left says shouldn't be taken seriously.

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Old 10-09-2012, 01:57 PM   #248
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The SS Obama is taking on water....

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Old 10-09-2012, 01:58 PM   #249
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This godlike reverence for 538 is starting to be silly, when all polls have moved significantly and he hasn't noticed.
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Old 10-09-2012, 02:07 PM   #250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
We are getting to see the race post debate. The numbers looked to bounce to Romney early but many of those numbers are receding back to the pre-convention numbers that were close. As of last evening 538 had Obama with a still 74.8% chance of winning but his margins cut shorter in many battleground states that had seemed safe. It remains to be seen whether this is a bounce of will reflect a longer trend. The challenger often comes out with better numbers after the first debate as the nation has their first true visit with them. Iowa is below 70%, while Colorado and Virginia are closer to 60 %. Despite clamor, Romney is not seen to have really gotten into the race in Michigan. Ohio and Nevada are still between 75-79%. Florida is just barely lean Obama while North Carolina is over 70% for Romney for the first time. I wouldn't expect the numbers to really jump after the VP debate even if there is a "you are not Jack Kennedy" moment.
Out of curiosity, do you even know how he calculates those percentages?
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Old 10-09-2012, 02:08 PM   #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
This godlike reverence for 538 is starting to be silly, when all polls have moved significantly and he hasn't noticed.
I was joking when I said his next update would have Obama's chances going up. Then he actually did it!
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Old 10-09-2012, 02:14 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
This godlike reverence for 538 is starting to be silly, when all polls have moved significantly and he hasn't noticed.
They do seem to be quick on the draw to bump up Obama, but rather slow on anything positive for Romney. If Romney wins, 538 will have jumped the shark, and its relevance will fade quickly.
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Old 10-09-2012, 02:16 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
The SS Obama is taking on water....

** Removed video of Chuck Todd talking about enthusiasm gap **
I've noticed a distinct enthusiasm gap between Direckshun and this forum lately.
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Old 10-09-2012, 02:17 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I've noticed a distinct enthusiasm gap between Direckshun and this forum lately.


As have I.
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Old 10-09-2012, 03:12 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I've noticed a distinct enthusiasm gap between Direckshun and this forum lately.

The number of threads started by her has declined significantly....hmmmm...
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