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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-10-2012, 01:46 PM   #286
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Old 10-10-2012, 01:56 PM   #287
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I don't think you guys understand how 538 works... Both the weaknesses and the strengths.

Let's use the conventions as an example. If history tells us that the candidate typically gets a bounce from the convention that dissipates over time, it does not make much sense to put too much weight on if a candidate gets an immediate bounce. What happens if a candidate gets no bounce though, or if a candidate gets a bounce that lasts longer than expected?

Or how do you rate polls? You don't hold elections once a week, so what do you rate them against? You have elections every two years, and certain polls only cover a handful of those. So you can compare the last polls before an election of course, and also compare all polls against each other. And attempt to weigh them that way. But what happens if you have a shit polling firm in 2004 and 2006, who becomes more accurate in 2008, and then very close in 2010? You gradually give less weight to older results.

Or with the economy. If you're polling six months ago, the economy is quite important - because no one really cares about the candidates. People probably blame the incumbent more, because he's the face of everything. So raw economy stats help give context - the economy is shit, so the incumbent probably won't do well. Or the economy is growing, so less people will blame the incumbent. As you get closer to an election, those statistics become less important because the personality and context of the election take on a greater role, and the economy doesn't move fast enough to make people react.

What these models do is take data and attempt to aggregate it and adjust it based on known data. The problem with elections is that the data isn't always great, especially historically.

You'd expect Romney to get a bump now, and he has. But a model would struggle with how real that bump is. Over the next few days, if polls continue to show Romney holding or climbing, his probability will rise. If it starts to recede, it won't.

Also, you have to take the states into account. If his national percentage goes higher, but Obama holds in Ohio, what exactly is Romney accomplishing?

It's best to look at these numbers for what they are, and not try to create partisan nonsense out of them. If they're wrong, are surely some parts will be, you adjust for the next election year. The thing here is that they can't talk to every single person on how they felt about the debate and what it means for November. So instead you look at the numbers and try to find meaning there.
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Old 10-10-2012, 02:36 PM   #288
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Old 10-10-2012, 03:02 PM   #289
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The electoral college math remains a bit of a struggle for Romney, I don't think that can be denied.

He's making a lot of ground and I'm honestly ready to close the book on the popular vote (I think he'll win that easily), but the free votes in California really do make it exceptionally difficult for a Republican candidate, even when the liberal incumbent is as big of a joke as this one is.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:37 PM   #290
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The electoral college math remains a bit of a struggle for Romney, I don't think that can be denied.
Obama starts out with Cali and NY and the R's always had Texas. But, in 2016 if the Latinos stay with the Dems at this 70/30 split that might put texas in play.

I think it will be a close election. But Obama will get 300 in the EC.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:41 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Obama starts out with Cali and NY and the R's always had Texas. But, in 2016 if the Latinos stay with the Dems at this 70/30 split that might put texas in play.

I think it will be a close election. But Obama will get 300 in the EC.
269 - 269 on my most recent projection... with Romney winning popular by a hair. OF course it will all depend on 2nd debate... I don't see the third debate being an issue and certainly don't think the VP debate will be unless Ryan flubs it. (everyone EXPECTS Biden to say at least one bonehead thing so he is safe)

I am amazed that you still are CERTAIN about Florida. I have a ton of friends there and they don't think Obama has a ghost of a chance. I have Florida just barely going to Romney at this point.. but neither side is a lock.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:44 PM   #292
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What can you do for me?

Ain't capitalism great?
The citzens of the USA continue to provide education for your employees. I'm assuming running websites that you need employees with tech skills. They received education on the public dime. Almost positive they received some post high school education, probably grants or student loans from the government.

I think asking the 1% to pay the same tax rate as they did under Clinton is not such a drastic step or class warfare.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:51 PM   #293
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269 - 269 on my most recent projection... with Romney winning popular by a hair. OF course it will all depend on 2nd debate... I don't see the third debate being an issue and certainly don't think the VP debate will be unless Ryan flubs it. (everyone EXPECTS Biden to say at least one bonehead thing so he is safe)

I am amazed that you still are CERTAIN about Florida. I have a ton of friends there and they don't think Obama has a ghost of a chance. I have Florida just barely going to Romney at this point.. but neither side is a lock.
I'm in the area that is going to decide Florida. Thats why Romney, Obama, Ryan and Biden have all made apperances here in the last week.

Obama should have no chance in Florida. The economy is for shit. The housing crash hit florida hard (not Obamas fault though). It's all medicare. Medicare and Ryan's budget is why Obama has a chance.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:56 PM   #294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
269 - 269 on my most recent projection... with Romney winning popular by a hair. OF course it will all depend on 2nd debate... I don't see the third debate being an issue and certainly don't think the VP debate will be unless Ryan flubs it. (everyone EXPECTS Biden to say at least one bonehead thing so he is safe)

I am amazed that you still are CERTAIN about Florida. I have a ton of friends there and they don't think Obama has a ghost of a chance. I have Florida just barely going to Romney at this point.. but neither side is a lock.
You have it...Based on ****ing what? Your internal polling data?
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:13 PM   #295
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You have it...Based on ****ing what? Your internal polling data?
no based on my complete guesses. No one knows shit at this point, I am guessing based on available data just like everyone else is. ZERO validity to it... just my guess as of right now.

So, shove that up your ass you dickless wonder.

PS I like the Clavin pics though, Cliff rules!
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:15 PM   #296
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It's all medicare. Medicare and Ryan's budget is why Obama has a chance.
I can see that, but I think you underestimate the intelligence of the senior vote and you definitely underestimate how good Ryan is at explaining why Romney/Ryan are better for the long term regarding Medicare.
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:19 PM   #297
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I can see that, but I think you underestimate the intelligence of the senior vote and you definitely underestimate how good Ryan is at explaining why Romney/Ryan are better for the long term regarding Medicare.
Especially when Ryan debunks the lies coming out of the Obama campaign ads stating they would be affected right away, instead Obamacare does.
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:26 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I don't think you guys understand how 538 works... Both the weaknesses and the strengths.

Let's use the conventions as an example. If history tells us that the candidate typically gets a bounce from the convention that dissipates over time, it does not make much sense to put too much weight on if a candidate gets an immediate bounce. What happens if a candidate gets no bounce though, or if a candidate gets a bounce that lasts longer than expected?

Or how do you rate polls? You don't hold elections once a week, so what do you rate them against? You have elections every two years, and certain polls only cover a handful of those. So you can compare the last polls before an election of course, and also compare all polls against each other. And attempt to weigh them that way. But what happens if you have a shit polling firm in 2004 and 2006, who becomes more accurate in 2008, and then very close in 2010? You gradually give less weight to older results.

Or with the economy. If you're polling six months ago, the economy is quite important - because no one really cares about the candidates. People probably blame the incumbent more, because he's the face of everything. So raw economy stats help give context - the economy is shit, so the incumbent probably won't do well. Or the economy is growing, so less people will blame the incumbent. As you get closer to an election, those statistics become less important because the personality and context of the election take on a greater role, and the economy doesn't move fast enough to make people react.

What these models do is take data and attempt to aggregate it and adjust it based on known data. The problem with elections is that the data isn't always great, especially historically.

You'd expect Romney to get a bump now, and he has. But a model would struggle with how real that bump is. Over the next few days, if polls continue to show Romney holding or climbing, his probability will rise. If it starts to recede, it won't.

Also, you have to take the states into account. If his national percentage goes higher, but Obama holds in Ohio, what exactly is Romney accomplishing?

It's best to look at these numbers for what they are, and not try to create partisan nonsense out of them. If they're wrong, are surely some parts will be, you adjust for the next election year. The thing here is that they can't talk to every single person on how they felt about the debate and what it means for November. So instead you look at the numbers and try to find meaning there.
In response to the convention, the candidate is judged by how much bounce they get against the historical average.

Most polling firms don't spring up overnight. 538 judges them by their history and polling methods, giving more credence to companies that do well over the long haul. Even if they have a poor prediction history that information is important. If PPP skews Democratic and Rasmussen skews Republican, that information is implemented in the information. Even comparing the latest poll with the previous poll from that company can give a trend.

They are slow to respond to trend that the general media is screaming about because they know there are bounces for certain events. If a candidate can hold that momentum for time after those events, that is a trend. Its not a knee jerk reaction.

Its for this reason that while Romney is making up ground in the polls, he is still running from the bounce he got from the debate. Let's not forget that Kerry clobbered Bush in their first debate but couldn't hold his momentum.
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:27 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I can see that, but I think you underestimate the intelligence of the senior vote and you definitely underestimate how good Ryan is at explaining why Romney/Ryan are better for the long term regarding Medicare.
They are running vocher and medicare ads constantly. I've got no scientific data to back this up. Just that I live in the area deciding the Florida election and the "word on the street" says that many elderly are scared of the ryan plan and medicare changes. And there are a shitload of those old geezers here.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 10-10-2012, 06:29 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I can see that, but I think you underestimate the intelligence of the senior vote and you definitely underestimate how good Ryan is at explaining why Romney/Ryan are better for the long term regarding Medicare.
That's why Ryan was booed in front of the AARP.
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Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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