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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:39 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's why Ryan was booed in front of the AARP.
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Largely unreported, however, was the applause Mr. Ryan received. That came in response to his criticism of ObamaCare's Independent Payment Advisory Board, the 15 "unaccountable bureaucrats" empowered under the Affordable Care Act to make cuts to Medicare that Mr. Ryan rightly said will "jeopardize access to care." The payment board is largely shielded from Congressional review precisely so it can ration care with little democratic oversight. This is how Mr. Obama will rein in Medicare costs—whether seniors like it or not.

The Wisconsin Congressman was also cheered for his promise that his Medicare premium-support reform would "force insurance companies to compete against each other to better serve seniors, with more help for the poor and the sick—and less help for the wealthy."

Perhaps most striking, Mr. Ryan even earned some applause when he discussed Social Security reform, including "slightly raising the retirement age over time and slowing the growth of benefits for those with higher incomes." Raising the retirement age used to be anathema and AARP still opposes it.
The AARP is the most left leaning portion of the senior vote... and yet he still got applause. You keep on thinking you can scare those dumb old wrinklies into voting for Obama...
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:46 PM   #302
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That's why Ryan was booed in front of the AARP.
Romney has a 17 point lead among voters ages 65+.

http://news.investors.com/special-re...tipp-poll.aspx
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:54 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I'm in the area that is going to decide Florida. Thats why Romney, Obama, Ryan and Biden have all made apperances here in the last week.

Obama should have no chance in Florida. The economy is for shit. The housing crash hit florida hard (not Obamas fault though). It's all medicare. Medicare and Ryan's budget is why Obama has a chance.
He doesn't.
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:56 PM   #304
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I can see that, but I think you underestimate the intelligence of the senior vote and you definitely underestimate how good Ryan is at explaining why Romney/Ryan are better for the long term regarding Medicare.
That's what's going to happen in the VP debate. Biden is going to try to play the medicare card and Ryan is going to explain the Romney position on medicare in a way that destroys the boogie man caricature that's been painted so far.
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:57 PM   #305
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They are running vocher and medicare ads constantly. I've got no scientific data to back this up. Just that I live in the area deciding the Florida election and the "word on the street" says that many elderly are scared of the ryan plan and medicare changes. And there are a shitload of those old geezers here.
The elderly should be scared of Obama.
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:58 PM   #306
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BRC, everybody shoudl be scared of Obama. He is destroying this country.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:05 PM   #307
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BRC, everybody shoudl be scared of Obama. He is destroying this country.
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Old 10-11-2012, 01:25 AM   #308
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BRC, everybody shoudl be scared of Obama. He is destroying this country.
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Old 10-11-2012, 10:09 AM   #309
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BRC, everybody shoudl be scared of Obama. He is destroying this country.
I'm glad you think one man wields that kind of power. It's not him that is destroying the country. Its the entire system.
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Old 10-11-2012, 01:15 PM   #310
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Austinchief and patteau, why are you even reading this thread if you're going to make up your own numbers? 269 on a gut feeling. 538 gives that a .9% chance of happening. Obama has no chance of winning in Florida. Obama has been ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls taken there. Both polls that show Romney ahead, Rasmussen and We Ask America, both skew Republican and were taken right after the debate.
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Old 10-11-2012, 01:48 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Austinchief and patteau, why are you even reading this thread if you're going to make up your own numbers? 269 on a gut feeling. 538 gives that a .9% chance of happening. Obama has no chance of winning in Florida. Obama has been ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls taken there. Both polls that show Romney ahead, Rasmussen and We Ask America, both skew Republican and were taken right after the debate.
Well one is a wanna be know it all blowhard and the other is a walking gop talking point machine. They have to reinforce their biases.
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Old 10-11-2012, 03:07 PM   #312
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Austinchief and patteau, why are you even reading this thread if you're going to make up your own numbers? 269 on a gut feeling. 538 gives that a .9% chance of happening. Obama has no chance of winning in Florida. Obama has been ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls taken there. Both polls that show Romney ahead, Rasmussen and We Ask America, both skew Republican and were taken right after the debate.
Why? Because I'm fascinated by the Nate Silver worship by people who don't really understand the shortcomings of what he does.
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Old 10-11-2012, 03:52 PM   #313
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Why? Because I'm fascinated by the Nate Silver worship by people who don't really understand the shortcomings of what he does.
Why is it that anyone who doesn't agree with you automatically don't understand what they are doing? We all have to bow to your expertise in Constitutional law and electoral politics.
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Old 10-11-2012, 04:03 PM   #314
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Why is it that anyone who doesn't agree with you automatically don't understand what they are doing? We all have to bow to your expertise in Constitutional law and electoral politics.
I think this is a case of mistaken identity. I'm GOP talking points man not wannabe know it all guy.

I don't claim any expertise in this, but that doesn't stop me from recognizing faith-based adoration when I see it.
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Old 10-11-2012, 04:57 PM   #315
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I think this is a case of mistaken identity. I'm GOP talking points man not wannabe know it all guy.

I don't claim any expertise in this, but that doesn't stop me from recognizing faith-based adoration when I see it.
I agree with your take on this 100%... and as the know it all I will weigh in further...

What Nate Silver does is numerical entertainment. That's it. It has ZERO value when correlated to reality. It's so funny... people judge his results based on his FINAL projection ONLY... yet they try to prop up his work RIGHT NOW at this stage as if it is predictive and meaningful. OK, fine if it is predictive and meaningful, let's see metrics and judgements based on his assessments 30 days out, or 28 or whatever.

I have zero problem with Nate Silver, but it is pretty clear there are quite a few here who don't understand that at this point, my "guesses" have as much credibility as his "work." His is just far more entertaining and looks oh so scientific!

You want to hold me accountable for my predictions 30 days out.. that's fine. Then let's hold Nate accountable for his as well. What? We only care about his final prediction, up until then it is just guesswork? Yeah, same here.
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