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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:36 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...llege_map.html

RCP seems to disagree. Electoral College is down to 201 to 191, with the rest being toss ups. Romney is continuing to gain in the "likability" rating, up to 4.8 from a -1.2 just before the first debate.

As much as Nate Silver does not want to admit it, this is a dogfight, and is going to be a very, very close election. I think the 66% number is soft.
Romney's favorables move up again overnight, up to 5.4. Obama's favorables are at 5.0 according to RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

First time this year I have seen Romney's favorables ahead of Obama's....and going from -1.2 to 5.4 in just two weeks is a helluva big jump.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:49 PM   #347
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...llege_map.html

RCP seems to disagree. Electoral College is down to 201 to 191, with the rest being toss ups. Romney is continuing to gain in the "likability" rating, up to 4.8 from a -1.2 just before the first debate.

As much as Nate Silver does not want to admit it, this is a dogfight, and is going to be a very, very close election. I think the 66% number is soft.
RCP doesn't do half the things that 538 does. They don't make any attempt to call a state that is close? They have Obama +5 in Pennsylvania and call it a tossup? They have Texas +19 to Romney and call that likely Romney? They have Minnesota +8 for Obama and that is leaning? They want to call Michigan a toss up when 538 has it 94.4% chance to Obama and Romney won't even advertise there or in Pennsylvania.

In other words, RCP is only covering their ass. They won't stick their neck out and call it. Their list is no more effective than CNN.

538 is also saying this will be a close race, at least with the popular vote, which they have right now at 50.1-48.8 in favor of Obama. That's about on par with the Bush/Kerry election.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:01 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
RCP doesn't do half the things that 538 does. They don't make any attempt to call a state that is close? They have Obama +5 in Pennsylvania and call it a tossup? They have Texas +19 to Romney and call that likely Romney? They have Minnesota +8 for Obama and that is leaning? They want to call Michigan a toss up when 538 has it 94.4% chance to Obama and Romney won't even advertise there or in Pennsylvania.

In other words, RCP is only covering their ass. They won't stick their neck out and call it. Their list is no more effective than CNN.

538 is also saying this will be a close race, at least with the popular vote, which they have right now at 50.1-48.8 in favor of Obama. That's about on par with the Bush/Kerry election.
Meh. RCP also has NC as a toss up, and Romney is ahead in NC by about the same margin as Obama is in Michigan.

RCP has had a pretty good track record in the last few elections, they are just as legitimate as anyone else.

Or is Nate Silver just so incredibly good that we should just not have an election, and appoint whomever he says to be the next President?
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:35 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Meh. RCP also has NC as a toss up, and Romney is ahead in NC by about the same margin as Obama is in Michigan.

RCP has had a pretty good track record in the last few elections, they are just as legitimate as anyone else.

Or is Nate Silver just so incredibly good that we should just not have an election, and appoint whomever he says to be the next President?
It's just funny to watch people that deride Silver run into the arms of RCP with not a hint of irony.

Last edited by WoodDraw; 10-16-2012 at 02:42 PM..
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:44 PM   #350
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It's just funny to watch people that deride Silver to run into the arms of RCP with not a hint of irony.
They are both just polling sites. Both could be right, both could be wrong. This infatuation with Silver just seems to be over the top, and his treatment of the debate results indicate that some bias does come through during his calculations.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:47 PM   #351
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I'll just drop this here because both candidates suck ass:


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Old 10-16-2012, 03:03 PM   #352
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I'll just drop this here because both candidates suck ass:


Gonna say Abe by a landslide.
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Old 10-16-2012, 03:31 PM   #353
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BTW.. if you want to take his prediction at any point and have me make a prediction at that same point in time and then judge me versus him.. I'll take that bet as well. Not because I think I am a political seer, but because I know just how ****ing insane it is to think he is. Especially since he doesn't pretend to be nor is it his intent as many here seem to think.

I'll also take any bets on any city and whether it will rain the next day or not. I get to pick rain or no rain, if I am correct I win. Anyone want to take that bet?

(waiting for the suckers to line up)
I'm conceding Florida now. The medicare scare ads are not going to make up the difference for all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.

I weep for America.
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Old 10-16-2012, 03:38 PM   #354
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I'm conceding Florida now. The medicare scare ads are not going to make up the difference for all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.

I weep for America.
Let the crying begin. It took four years, but people finally see Obama for what he is. And they don't like it.

Stupid ass rednecks > Your dumb ass that voted him in.
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Old 10-16-2012, 03:41 PM   #355
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I'm conceding Florida now. The medicare scare ads are not going to make up the difference for all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.

I weep for America.
But how is this possible? Look at all the campaign signs on my block!!
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Old 10-16-2012, 03:46 PM   #356
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Let the crying begin. It took four years, but people finally see Obama for what he is. And they don't like it.

Stupid ass rednecks > Your dumb ass that voted him in.
I still think Romney is going to lose. Just not Florida.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:02 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
They are both just polling sites. Both could be right, both could be wrong. This infatuation with Silver just seems to be over the top, and his treatment of the debate results indicate that some bias does come through during his calculations.
Statements like this mean nothing. It's a direct cop out - "they could be right, they could be wrong."

They're both different sites that do different things. As I said earlier, the only infatuation is between people looking for a model that makes themselves look better.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:10 PM   #358
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Statements like this mean nothing. It's a direct cop out - "they could be right, they could be wrong."

They're both different sites that do different things. As I said earlier, the only infatuation is between people looking for a model that makes themselves look better.
Cop out to what?

They don't do different things. They both try to predict election outcomes. Their methods may differ, but they cite the same polls, and use much of the same data.

Sorry that I do not worship at 538's altar.

Is Nate Silver a master of statistics? I would say probably so. However, elections are voted on by people, and people can be very, very unpredictable.
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Old 10-16-2012, 11:23 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I'm conceding Florida now. The medicare scare ads are not going to make up the difference for all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.

I weep for America.
Progressives use this narrative alot.

Can you explain it to me? What does it, or whats it supposed to mean?
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Old 10-16-2012, 11:34 PM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Romney's favorables move up again overnight, up to 5.4. Obama's favorables are at 5.0 according to RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

First time this year I have seen Romney's favorables ahead of Obama's....and going from -1.2 to 5.4 in just two weeks is a helluva big jump.
It's monumental. And nothing about tonight will change it, except maybe Big Bird and Binders Full of Women...lol

Up nearly 20 points on the economy in two polls after the debate...pretty devastating stuff...

But hey, Obama won the debate by 7 points!
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