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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-17-2012, 07:13 AM   #361
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I'm conceding Florida now. The medicare scare ads are not going to make up the difference for all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.

I weep for America.
Just donate another $6 and put up another sign. That should right the ship.
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Old 10-18-2012, 03:30 PM   #362
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Latest update is early today. I'm not sure that it has too many numbers that are post debate 2. It suggest either the post debate bounce from the first debate is halting or that its trending back to Obama. Right now 538 gives Obama a 65.7% chance of victory.

State numbers are moving toward Obama with improvements in Colorado (50.8), Nevada (67.3), Iowa (62.7), Ohio (68.9), and New Hampshire (68.8).

Obama has lead in states worth 290 EC
Obama has 60% lead in states worth 281 EC
Obama has 70% lead in states worth 259 EC

Romney still maintains his lead in the swing states of Virginia (52.9), Florida (65.1) and now has a solid lead in North Carolina (86.1). Missouri, Montana, Indiana and Arizona are all pretty safe Romney after it looked as though Obama could be competitive in those states. The same could be said for Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Obama column.
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Old 10-18-2012, 03:41 PM   #363
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it's funny--when obama doesn't do a completely shitty job, the results are almost immediate. when obama does shitty and romney curb-stomps him, the results take a long-ass time.

nope. no bias here at all, eh? that makes NO sense. aren't we supposed to wait and feel out the voters apparently?
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Old 10-18-2012, 03:46 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
it's funny--when obama doesn't do a completely shitty job, the results are almost immediate. when obama does shitty and romney curb-stomps him, the results take a long-ass time.

nope. no bias here at all, eh? that makes NO sense. aren't we supposed to wait and feel out the voters apparently?
Have you looked at the graphs on 538? The curb stomp has been quite visible since the first debate. Romney dropped Obama's chances of winning by 25% in 10 days. And dropped his EC count by 37 over the same time period.

Now that it's leveled off it's biased????
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Old 10-18-2012, 04:55 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Just donate another $6 and put up another sign. That should right the ship.
Florida is like Missouri. It use to be 50/50. Elections could go either way. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley. And a decrease in population in the urban centers which trend Democratic.
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Old 10-19-2012, 07:44 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
all the stupid ass rednecks who will vote against their own interests.
I'm one of those "stupid ass rednecks".

Make your case, how does Obama represent my "own interests"?
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Old 10-19-2012, 07:45 AM   #367
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there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley.
You really hate white people, don't you?
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Old 10-19-2012, 07:55 AM   #368
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Florida is like Missouri. It use to be 50/50. Elections could go either way. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley. And a decrease in population in the urban centers which trend Democratic.
In which of those areas are you more likely to run into voters who don't speak English?
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Old 10-19-2012, 11:31 AM   #369
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Progressives use this narrative alot.

Can you explain it to me? What does it, or whats it supposed to mean?
From the liberal perspective it means that they're voting against the guy that's offering them the most handouts.

Your standard class-warfare crap.
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Old 10-19-2012, 11:37 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Florida is like Missouri. It use to be 50/50. Elections could go either way. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley. And a decrease in population in the urban centers which trend Democratic.
If it weren't for "stupid people" your man would have never been in the White House, so be appreciative...and get your Obamaphone before it's too late.
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Old 10-19-2012, 01:59 PM   #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
it's funny--when obama doesn't do a completely shitty job, the results are almost immediate. when obama does shitty and romney curb-stomps him, the results take a long-ass time.

nope. no bias here at all, eh? that makes NO sense. aren't we supposed to wait and feel out the voters apparently?
The reason it was early was because Nate Silver was on the Daily show. They didn't have any articles yesterday. They actually did release a later version where Obama's lead was even more apparent. I will wait for tonights results as the effects of the latest debate become more clear.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:03 PM   #372
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The reason it was early was because Nate Silver was on the Daily show. They didn't have any articles yesterday. They actually did release a later version where Obama's lead was even more apparent.
Do you think Obama's campaign is in good shape right now? It seems to me you are whistling in the woods, not aware that Obama is standing on some railroad tracks, and a Romney locomotive bearing down on him.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:29 PM   #373
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Do you think Obama's campaign is in good shape right now? It seems to me you are whistling in the woods, not aware that Obama is standing on some railroad tracks, and a Romney locomotive bearing down on him.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:43 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Florida is like Missouri. It use to be 50/50. Elections could go either way. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley. And a decrease in population in the urban centers which trend Democratic.
Ie. Immigrants who have been spoon fed to vote Democrat
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:48 PM   #375
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yep, things are looking better than ever for Obama
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