538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

Do you think Obama's campaign is in good shape right now? It seems to me you are whistling in the woods, not aware that Obama is standing on some railroad tracks, and a Romney locomotive bearing down on him.

In latest polling from yesterday, Obama held the lead in 11 out of 13 swing state polls.

[whoman69]

A bit closer in today's polling. 538 cut the chances of Obama winning down to 67.9% putting the popular vote at 50.0-48.9%. They have yet to update the state info.

[whoman69]

No flips of any states since last report:
Nevada 72.9% Obama
Colorado 53.4% Obama
Iowa 66.1% Obama
Wisconsin 79.2% Obama
Ohio 70.7% Obama
New Hampshire 62.8% Obama
Virginia 53.1% Romney
North Carolina 82.7% Romney
Florida 68.9% Romney

All other states are at least 85% locked into their candidate.
237 EC solid Obama
53 EC lean Obama
191 EC solid Romney
57 EC lean Romney

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by whoman69

A bit closer in today's polling. 538 cut the chances of Obama winning down to 67.9% putting the popular vote at 50.0-48.9%. They have yet to update the state info.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama improves in nat'l trackers, but Romney had better state polls. State polls win. Obama down to 67.9% from 70.4%. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

From the liberal perspective it means that they're voting against the guy that's offering them the most handouts.

Your standard class-warfare crap.

Thanks. I figured BRC wouldn't be able to explain it. It's just something he heard from a moonbat who heard it from a moonbat who heard it from a moonbat.

[whoman69]

No changes in the national numbers from yesterday. The state numbers may have shifted by less than a percentage point in some states.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

Thanks. I figured BRC wouldn't be able to explain it. It's just something he heard from a moonbat who heard it from a moonbat who heard it from a moonbat.

I'm making a choice to not initiate a dialog with you. You are not really interested in an explanation. You are a smart guy. You can just google it yourself.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm making a choice to not initiate a dialog with you.

That doesn't make me unique.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

No changes in the national numbers from yesterday. The state numbers may have shifted by less than a percentage point in some states.

The EC math is just too daunting for Romney. If he doesnt flip Ohio or Wisconsin he has no path to the presidency.

[Aries Walker]

. . . which is why Monday, the last debate, will be fascinating.

[whoman69]

Again, little change in the numbers. The scenarios moved incrementally towards Romney but still give Obama a 67.6% shot at winning.

[Comrade Crapski]

Ya'll here that noise?

Thats the sound of the wheels coming off Barry's clown car.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The EC math is just too daunting for Romney. If he doesnt flip Ohio or Wisconsin he has no path to the presidency.

If Romney were somehow to flip all of the least tenuous states and keep his lead on Virginia (53.1%), he still falls short 267-271. There were thoughts Romney could take one of the districts in Maine, but that is highly unlikely and would still leave him short unless he took the state, an event even more unlikely.

Obama holds at least 70% in those 271 EC. Ohio is at 70.3% and Wisconsin 79%.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by whoman69

If Romney were somehow to flip all of the least tenuous states and keep his lead on Virginia (53.1%), he still falls short 267-271. There were thoughts Romney could take one of the districts in Maine, but that is highly unlikely and would still leave him short unless he took the state, an event even more unlikely.

Obama holds at least 70% in those 271 EC. Ohio is at 70.3% and Wisconsin 79%.

A lot of people give NS crap because he doesn't seem to pick up the Romney moves, but the big reason why his analysis weights the chances of an Obama win so high begins and ends with the letter O. Flip Ohio and all Romney has to do is win one more from NH, IA, WI, CO, or NV.

Get 2-3 polls with OH in Romney's column and the 538 analysis is going to change in a very big way.

[whoman69]

In the senate 538 sees the Democrats holding. They see Democrats winning in 22 contests. Of those contest the least like Democratic win is in Connecticut with a 79% chance of victory there. If that holds the final numbers would have 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) and 48 Republicans, a net +1 for Republicans.

In the 11 contests where Republicans are winning, several are tenuous at best. Montana has 56.8% chance of Republican victory, Indiana 63.8 and Arizona is 68.6%. Republicans are only given a 12.4% chance of taking back the Senate.